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hurricane2
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000
acca62 tjsj 080615 cca
twospn
Perspectivas sobre las condiciones del tiempo en el tropico.
Nws tpc/centro nacional de huracanes miami fl
200 am edt miercoles 8 de septiembre de 2010
Para el atlantico norte. El mar caribe y el golfo de mexico.
El centro nacional de huracanes ha emitido su ultimaadvertencia
sobre la depresion tropical hermine. Localizada sobre tierra sobre
texas central cerca de 60 millas sur sureste de abilene. Informacion
subsigiente sobre este sistema puede encontrarse en las advertencias
pulblicas del centro de predicciones hidrometeorologicas. Bajo el
titulo de awips tcpat5 y el titulo wmo wtnt35 kwnh. Comenzando a
las 4 am cdt.
Aguaceros y tronadas se tornan mas organizados cerca de una baja
presion esta localizada justo al sur de las islas de cabo verde del
sur. Fuertes vientos en los niveles bajos de la atmosfera sobre el
sistema deben disminuir durante los proximos dias. Y desarollo
adicional es posible a medida que la baja presion se mueva al oeste
de 10 a 15 mph. Existe una posibilidad mediana. 50 por ciento. De
que este sistema se convierte en ciclon tropical nuevamente en las
proximas 48 horas.
Los remanentes de gaston localizados como a 140 millas al sureste de
santo domingo en la republica dominicana. Estan produciendo
actividad minima de aguaceros y tronadas. El desarrollo. Se torna
menos probable mientras se mueve hacia el oeste a cerca de 10 a 15
mph. Existe una posibilidad baja. 10 por ciento. De que este
sistema se convierte en ciclon tropical nuevamente en las proximas
48 horas.
La actividad de aguaceros asociada con un area debil de baja presion
localizada como a 450 millas al oeste noroeste de las islas de cabo
verde mas al norte se ha disipado. Las fotos del satelite indican
que el sistema se encuentra en medio de un ambiente seco y
estable. Y desarrollo no se espera a medida que mueva hacia el
oeste noroeste a cerca de 10 mph. Existe una probabilidad baja. 0
por ciento. De que este sistema se convierta en ciclon tropical
durante las proximas 48 horas.
En el resto del area. No se espera formacion de ciclon tropical
durante las proximas 48 horas.
$$
Pronosticador berg
Traduccion cortesia de la oficina del servicio nacional de
meteorologia en san juan puerto rico
000
axnt20 knhc 080603
twdat
Tropical weather discussion
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
205 am edt wed sep 08 2010
Tropical weather discussion for north america. Central
america. Gulf of mexico. Caribbean sea. Northern sections of
south america. And atlantic ocean to the african coast from the
equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery. Meteorological analysis. Weather observations. And
radar.
Based on 0000 utc surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0445 utc.
. Special features.
Tropical depression hermine is centered near 31. 6n 99. 5w at
08/0300 utc or about 25 nm s-se of brownwood texas and about 50
nm s of abilene texas moving n at 14 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30
kt with gusts to 40 kt. This is the last advisory issued by the
national hurricane center. Please see latest public advisory
issued by the hydrometeorological prediction center. Under
awips header tcpat5 and wmo header wtnt35 kwnh. Hermine is
expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6
inches with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over
portions of central and eastern texas into oklahoma. In
addition. Very heavy rain is expected to spread across
southeastern kansas and missouri during the next few days. The
heavy rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods.
The tropical wave in the e atlc is along 21w/22w s of 20n with a
1008 mb low along the wave near 14n. Wave/low is embedded within
a broad mid level cyclonic rotation that is from 9n-17n between
16w-30w while an upper ridge along 20n covering the area from
11n-24n e of 30w. This wave is embedded within an area of deep
level moisture as indicated on total precipitable water imagery.
This is scenario is enhancing numerous strong convection from
15n-18n e of 19w to inland over w africa. Scattered moderate/
strong convection is from 12n-17n between 23w-26w. This system
is becoming more organized near the area of low pressure.
Strong upper level winds over this system are expected to
decrease over the next couple of days and additional development
is possible as the low moves westward 10 to 15 kt. There is a
medium chance of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during
the next 48 hours.
. Itcz.
The itcz axis is analyzed along 10n24w 8n44w 10n44w into the
caribbean near 12n62w and into the e pacific region across
nicaragua near 12n84w. Scattered moderate/isolated strong
convection is within 90 nm s of the itcz from 28w-33w and within
45 nm of line from 8n37w to 4n49w.
. Discussion.
Gulf of mexico.
The broad upper ridge that covers t. D. Hermine extends a ridge
axis e-ne across the se u. S. Covering much of the gulf waters
drawing dry stable air s over the gulf within 200 nm of line
from the big bend area of florida sw to tuxpan mexico. Dense
high clouds cover the nw gulf with isolated showers within 90
nm along the coast of louisiana and texas. The upper low over
the n caribbean extends over the florida straits and over s
florida peninsula generating scattered showers/isolated
thunderstorms s of 25n to the coast of cuba e of 85w across the
s florida peninsula into the w atlc and through the florida
straits. Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms are inland
over s mexico and within 45 nm along the coast in the bay of
campeche between 92w-95w. This is leaving the remainder of the
gulf under mostly clear skies tonight.
Caribbean sea.
Ne to e upper flow covers the far nw caribbean w of 84w while an
elongated n/s upper low is centered just s of cuba near 21n80w
extending n over the florida straits and s to 15n between
76w-84w generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms n of
19n to across cuba between 77w-87w. An upper ridge anchored in
the central atlc covers the remainder of the caribbean e of 76w.
Beneath is upper ridge is a surface trough that extends from
21n66w through a 1010 mb surface low. Remnants of gaston. Near
17n66w to 14n66w generating scattered showers/isolated
thunderstorms from 15n-21n between 66w-72w including puerto rico
and the dominican republic. The itcz crosses the far s caribbean
generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms s of 13n to
over colombia between 72w-77w. This is leaving the remainder of
the caribbean under mostly clear skies tonight.
Atlantic ocean.
The upper low over the n caribbean extends n over the w atlc to
25n w of 76w through the florida straits supporting a surface
trough that extends from 30n80w across florida between vero
beach and homestead to over cuba near 22n81w and generating
scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms s of 21n e of 76w with
scattered showers within 75 nm along the remainder of the
florida coast. The broad upper ridge over t. D. Hermine extends
an axis across the se u. S. Into the w atlc to 33n75w. A second
upper ridge is anchored in the central atlc 24n60w with a narrow
upper level trough between extending into the w atlc near 32n71w
sw to the bahamas near 25n77w. Strong subsidence/dry stable air
covers the atlc from 10n-31n between 38w-65w. However. Beneath
this upper ridge is a surface trough that extends from 21n66w
into the caribbean across puerto rico generating scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms s of 21n into the caribbean
between 65w-72w. This activity is moving toward the turks and
caicos. A surface ridge dominates the w atlc anchored by a 1022
mb high about 300 nm off the north carolina coast. An e/w upper
ridge is anchored w africa extending an axis w along 20n into
the e tropical atlc to 30w. Beneath is the tropical wave in the
spacial features above and a surface trough that extends from
22n32w through a 1009 mb low near 18n33w to 13n32w with
scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms from
17n-20n between 30w-35w. A surface ridge covers the e atlc
anchored by a 1024 mb high just s of the azores.
For additional information please visit
http://www. Hurricanes. Gov/marine
$$
paw
000
acpn50 phfo 080553
twocp
Tropical weather outlook
nws central pacific hurricane center honolulu hi
800 pm hst tue sep 7 2010
For the central north pacific. Between 140w and 180
1. Showers and isolated thunderstorms have weakened along a trough
located about 850 miles southeast of hilo. Hawaii. Over the past
six hours. Development. If any. Will be slow to occur with this
system as it heads slowly to the west-southwest over the next couple
of days. There is a low chance. 20 percent. Of this feature
becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
2. Showers and isolated thunderstorms have almost dissipated over
the past six hours around 550 miles south-southeast of hilo.
Hawaii. Along a weak surface trough. This system is expected to
move to the west at about 10 mph with no significant development
expected. There is a low chance. Near 0 percent. Of this system
becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Elsewhere. No tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday
evening.
$$
Kinel
000
abnt20 knhc 080551
twoat
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
200 am edt wed sep 8 2010
For the north atlantic. Caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico.
The national hurricane center has issued the last advisory on
tropical depression hermine. Currently located inland over central
texas about 60 miles south of abilene. Future information on this
system can be found in public advisories issued by the
hydrometeorological prediction center. Under awips header tcpat5
and wmo header wtnt35 kwnh. Beginning at 400 am cdt.
Shower and thunderstorm activity is becoming more organized near an
area of low pressure located just south of the southernmost cape
verde islands. Strong upper-level winds over this system are
expected to decrease over the next couple of days. And additional
development is possible as the low moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
There is a medium chance. 50 percent. Of this system becoming a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
The remnants of gaston. Located about 140 miles southeast of santo
domingo in the dominican republic. Are producing minimal shower
and thunderstorm activity. Development of this system is becoming
less likely as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. There is a low
chance. 10 percent. Of this system becoming a tropical cyclone
again during the next 48 hours.
Shower activity near a weak area of low pressure located about 525
miles west-northwest of the northernmost cape verde islands has
dissipated. Satellite data indicate that the system is embedded
within a dry and stable environment. And development is not
expected as it moves west-northwestward near 10 mph. There is a
low chance. Near 0 percent. Of this system becoming a tropical
cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Elsewhere. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.
$$
forecaster berg
000
abpz20 knhc 080534
twoep
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
1100 pm pdt tue sep 7 2010
For the eastern north pacific. East of 140 degrees west longitude.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
$$
forecaster berg
000
axpz20 knhc 080341
twdep
Tropical weather discussion
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
0405 utc wed sep 08 2010
Tropical weather discussion for the eastern pacific ocean from
the equator to 32n. East of 140w.
Based on 0000 utc surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0315 utc.
. Itcz.
Axis centered along 12n87w 14n101w to 11n115w 12n130w 12n140w.
Scattered moderate convection exists from 8n-12n between
100w-106w.
. Discussion.
A stationary upper level anticylone is near 23n128w with a ridge
extending ese to another anticyclone near 22n118w. And continues
e to another anticyclone over w central mexico near 23n105w. The
anticyclone over mexico is supporting scattered tstm activity
over much of central mexico.
Water vapor imagery shows ample moderate subsidence covering
just about the entire area w of of a line from 24n111w to
17n120w to 9n130w. This is reflected at the surface as a very
stable environment marked by a mostly overcast stratocumulus
cloud layer noted to the n of about 19n.
To the n of the anticyclones wly flow becomes rather fast as a
large upper trough digs s along the pacific nw and northern
california coast. A narrow mid/upper level trough is over
northern and central baja california.
To the e of the above line. The upper level flow is quite strong
allowing for an environment of high vertical shear to be present
across the eastern pacific hostile to persistent deep convection
and possible tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours.
At the surface. Ridge extends into the area through 32n140w.
And extends to near 21n123w. High pres covers the area n of 15n
w of 128w. A low just w of the area near 13n143w of 1009 mb
associated with the itcz is expected to begin to slowly move
sw and w over the next couple of days with swells earlier
affecting the waters near 140w now abating. Overall. Wind
and sea conditions throughout will be on the light range
by thu as the ridge remains weak.
$$
aguirre
000
wtca45 tjsj 080329
tcpsp5
Boletin
tormenta tropical hermine advertencia numero 9
nws tpc/centro nacional de huracanes miami fl al102010
1000 pm cdt martes 7 de septiembre de 2010
. Hermine produciendo lluvia fuerte sobre el centro de texas.
Resumen de las 10:00 pm cdt. 0300 utc. Informacion
----------------------------------------------
localizacion. 31. 6 norte 99. 5 oeste
cerca de 30 millas. 50 kilometros al sur suroeste de brownwood
texas
cerca de 60 millas. 90 kilometros al sur de abilene texas
vientos maximos sostenidos. 35 mph. 55 kilometros por hora
movimiento actual. Norte o 350 grados a 16 mph. 26 kilometros
por hora presion minima central. 1003 milibaras. 29. 62 pulgadas
Vigilancias y avisos
--------------------
no hay vigilancias ni aviso costeros en efecto.
Discusion y perspectivas para las proximas 48 horas
------------------------------
a las 10:00 pm cdt. 0300 utc. El centro de la depresion tropical
hermine estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 31. 6 norte. Longitud
99. 5 oeste. Hermine esta moviendose hacia el norte a cerca de 16
millas por hora. 26 kilometros por hora. Se espera un giro hacia el
nor noroeste para el miercoles. Y un giro hacia el noreste para el
jueves.
Los vientos maximos sostenidos han disminuido cerca de 35 mph. 55
kilometros por hora. Con rafagas mas fuertes. Durante las pasadas
horas. Una rafaga de 43 mph. Fue reportada en brady texas. Se
pronostica debilitamiento a medida que hermine se mueva mas adentro
sobre el centro y el norte de texas.
La presion minima central estimada es de 1003 milibaras. 29. 26
pulgadas.
Peligros afectando tierra
----------------------
marejada ciclonica. Niveles del mar a lo largo de la costa de texas
estan retrocediendo gradualmente. Pero podrian permanecer sobre los
niveles normales durante el proximo dia o dos.
Lluvia. Se espera que hermine genere acumulaciones de lluvia
totales de 4 a 6 pulgadas. Con cantidades maximas aisladas de 12
pulgadas posibles. Desde porciones del centro y el este de texas
hacia oklahoma. En adicion. Lluvia muy fuerte es anticipada a
traves del sureste de kansas y missouri durante los proximos dias.
Estas lluvias fuertes pueden causar inundaciones repentinas que
amenazaran vida.
Tornados. Tornados aislados son posibles sobre porciones del centro
y sureste de texas durante esta noche.
Proximas advertencias
-------------
esta es la ultima advertencia emitido por el centro nacional de
huracanes sobre este sistema. Informacion subsigiente sobre este
sistema puede encontrarse en las advertencias pulblicas del centro
nacional de predicciones hidrometeorologicas. Bajo el titulo de
awips tcpat5 y el titulo wmo wtnt35 kwnh. Comenzando a las 400 am
cdt.
$$
Pronosticador stewart
Traduccion cortesia de la oficina del servicio nacional de
meteorologia en san juan puerto rico
000
acca62 tjsj 080314 cca
twospn
Perspectivas sobre las condiciones del tiempo en el
tropico. Especial
nws tpc/centro nacional de huracanes miami fl
1050 pm edt martes 7 de septiembre de 2010
Para el atlantico norte. El mar caribe y el golfo de mexico.
El centro nacional de huracanes ha emitido su ultimaadvertencia
sobre la depresion tropical hermine. Localizada sobre tierra sobre
texas central cerca de 30 millas sur sureste de brownwood.
Una vigorosa onda tropical. Acompanado de un sistema de baja
presion esta localizada cerca de las islas de cabo verde del sureste.
Los aguaceros y tronadas se han concentrado cerca del centro de la
baja presion durante las ultimas horas. Y las condiciones
ambientales aparentan conducentes para un desarollo adicional
durante los proximos dias mientras el disturbio se mueva al oeste de
15 a 20 mph. Existe una posibilidad mediana. 40 por ciento. De que
este sistema se convierte en ciclon tropical nuevamente en las
proximas 48 horas.
Aguaceros y tronadas permanecen desorganizados en asociacion con los
remanentes de gaston localizados como a 60 millas al sur de ponce
puerto rico. Se espera que el desarrollo. Si alguno. De este
sistema sea lento a medida que se mueve hacia el oeste a cerca de 15
a 20 mph. Existe una posibilidad leve. 20 por ciento. De que este
sistema se convierte en ciclon tropical nuevamente en las proximas
48 horas.
La actividad de aguaceros asociada con un area debil de baja presion
localizada como a 450 millas al oeste noroeste de las islas de cabo
verde mas al norte permanece minima. Se espera que las condiciones
ambientales no sean favorables para desarrollo durante los proximos
dias a medida que una baja presion se mueva hacia el oeste a cerca
de 10 mph. Existe una probabilidad baja. 10 por ciento. De que
este sistema se convierta en ciclon tropical durante las proximas 48
horas.
En el resto del area. No se espera formacion de ciclon tropical
durante las proximas 48 horas.
$$
Pronosticador stewart
Traduccion cortesia de la oficina del servicio nacional de
meteorologia en san juan puerto rico
000
abnt20 knhc 080247
twoat
special tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
1050 pm edt tue sep 7 2010
For the north atlantic. Caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico.
The national hurricane center has issued the last advisory on
tropical depression hermine. Located inland over central texas
about 30 miles south-southeast of brownwood.
A vigorous tropical wave. Accompanied by a low pressure system.
Is located near the southeastern cape verde islands. Showers and
thunderstorms have become more concentrated near the center of the
low during the past few hours. And environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development during the next couple of days
as the disturbance moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. There is a
medium chance. 40 percent. Of this system becoming a tropical
cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with
the remnants of gaston located about 60 miles south of ponce puerto
rico. Development. If any. Of this system is expected to be slow
to occur as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. There is a low
chance. 20 percent. Of this system becoming a tropical cyclone
again during the next 48 hours.
Shower activity associated with a weak area of low pressure located
about 450 miles west-northwest of the northernmost cape verde
islands remains minimal. Environmental conditions are expected to
be unfavorable for development during the next couple of days as
the low moves westward near 10 mph. There is a low chance. 10
percent. Of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours.
Elsewhere. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.
$$
forecaster stewart
000
wtnt35 knhc 080235
tcpat5
bulletin
tropical depression hermine advisory number 9
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al102010
1000 pm cdt tue sep 07 2010
. Hermine bringing heavy rainfall to central texas.
Summary of 1000 pm cdt. 0300 utc. Information
-----------------------------------------------
location. 31. 6n 99. 5w
about 30 mi. 50 km sse of brownwood texas
about 60 mi. 95 km s of abilene texas
maximum sustained winds. 35 mph. 55 km/hr
present movement. N or 350 degrees at 16 mph. 26 km/hr
minimum central pressure. 1003 mb. 29. 62 inches
Watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 1000 pm cdt. 0300 utc. The center of tropical depression
hermine was located near latitude 31. 6 north. Longitude 99. 5 west.
The depression is moving toward the north near 16 mph. 26 km/hr.
A turn to the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday. With a turn
to the northeast forecast to occur by Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph. 55 km/hr. With higher
gusts. During the past couple of hours. A wind gust to 43 mph.
69 km/hr. Was reported in brady texas. Gradual weakening is
forecast as hermine moves farther inland over central and northern
texas.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. 29. 62 inches.
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
storm surge. Water levels along the texas coast will gradually
recede. But remain above normal for the next day or so.
Rainfall. Hermine is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches. With possible isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. From portions of central and eastern texas
into oklahoma. In addition. Very heavy rain is expected to spread
across southeastern kansas and missouri during the next few days.
The heavy rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods.
Tornadoes. Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of
central and southeast texas this evening.
Next advisory
-------------
this is the last public advisory issued by the national hurricane
center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in public advisories issued by the hydrometeorological
prediction center. Under awips header tcpat5 and wmo header wtnt35
kwnh. Beginning at 400 am cdt.
$$
forecaster stewart
000
wtnt25 knhc 080233
tcmat5
tropical depression hermine forecast/advisory number 9
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al102010
0300 utc wed sep 08 2010
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Tropical depression center located near 31. 6n 99. 5w at 08/0300z
position accurate within 20 nm
Present movement toward the north or 350 degrees at 14 kt
Estimated minimum central pressure 1003 mb
max sustained winds 30 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat. Center located near 31. 6n 99. 5w at 08/0300z
at 08/0000z center was located near 31. 0n 99. 3w
Forecast valid 08/1200z 33. 5n 99. 7w. Inland
max wind 20 kt. Gusts 35 kt.
Forecast valid 09/0000z 35. 8n 99. 1w. Post-trop/remnt low
max wind 20 kt. Gusts 30 kt.
Forecast valid 09/1200z 38. 0n 97. 4w. Post-trop/remnt low
max wind 20 kt. Gusts 25 kt.
Forecast valid 10/0000z 39. 7n 94. 9w. Post-trop/remnt low
max wind 20 kt. Gusts 25 kt.
Forecast valid 11/0000z. Dissipated inland
This is the last forecast/advisory issued by the national hurricane
center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in public advisories issued by the hydrometeorological
prediction center. Under awips header tcpat5 and wmo header wtnt35
kwnh. Beginning at 400 am cdt.
$$
forecaster stewart
000
wtca45 tjsj 080054
tcpsp5
Boletin
tormenta tropical hermine advertencia intermedia numero 8a
nws tpc/centro nacional de huracanes miami fl al102010
700 pm cdt martes 7 de septiembre de 2010
. Hermine se debilita a una depresion tropical. Todavia esta
produciendo lluvia fuerte sobre el centro de texas.
Resumen de las 7:00 pm cdt. 0000 utc. Informacion
----------------------------------------------
localizacion. 31. 1 norte 99. 4 oeste
cerca de 5 millas. 10 kilometros al suroeste de brady texas
vientos maximos sostenidos. 35 mph. 55 kilometros por hora
movimiento actual. Nor noroeste o 345 grados a 20 mph. 33
kilometros por hora
presion minima central. 1003 milibaras. 29. 62 pulgadas
Vigilancias y avisos
--------------------
no hay vigilancias ni aviso costeros en efecto.
Discusion y perspectivas para las proximas 48 horas
------------------------------
a las 7:00 pm cdt. 0000 utc. El centro de la depresion tropical
hermine estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 31. 1 norte. Longitud
99. 4 oeste. Hermine esta moviendose hacia el norte noroeste a cerca
de 20 millas por hora. 33 kilometros por hora. Se espera un giro
hacia el norte y luego al nor noroeste durante los proximos dias.
Los vientos maximos sostenidos han disminuido cerca de 35 mph. 55
kilometros por hora. Con rafagas mas fuertes. Se pronostica
debilitamientoa medida que hermine se mueva mas adentro sobre el
centro de texas.
La presion minima central estimada es de 1003 milibaras. 29. 26
pulgadas.
Peligros afectando tierra
----------------------
marejada ciclonica. Niveles del mar a lo largo de la costa de texas
estan retrocediendo gradualmente. Pero podrian permanecer sobre los
niveles normales durante el proximo dia o dos.
Lluvia. Se espera que hermine genere acumulaciones de lluvia
totales de 4 a 6 pulgadas. Con cantidades maximas aisladas de 10
pulgadas posibles. Desde la costa central de texas hacia el norte a
traves del centro de texas. Y sobre el este y centro de oklahoma.
Se espera que estas lluvias sigan propagandose hacia el noreste a
traves del sureste de kansas y missouri durante los proximos dias.
Estas lluvias fuertes pueden causar inundaciones repentinas que
amenazaran vida.
Tornados. Tornados aislados son posibles sobre porciones del
centro y sureste de texas durante el dia de hoy.
Proximas advertencias
-------------
proxima advertencia completa. 10:00 pm cdt.
$$
Pronosticador stewart
Traduccion cortesia de la oficina del servicio nacional de
meteorologia en san juan puerto rico
000
acca62 tjsj 080020 cca
twospn
Perspectivas sobre las condiciones del tiempo en el
tropico. Correccion
nws tpc/centro nacional de huracanes miami fl
800 pm edt martes 7 de septiembre de 2010
Para el atlantico norte. El mar caribe y el golfo de mexico.
El centro nacional de huracanes esta emitiendo advertencias sobre la
recien degradada depresion tropical hermine. Localizada sobre
tierra sobre texas central cerca de brady.
Aguaceros y tronadas permanecen desorganizados en asociacion con los
remanentes de gaston localizados como a 60 millas al sur de ponce
puerto rico. Se espera que el desarrollo. Si alguno. De este
sistema sea lento a medida que se mueve hacia el oeste a cerca de 15
a 20 mph. Existe una posibilidad leve. 20 por ciento. De que este
sistema se convierte en ciclon tropical nuevamente en las proximas
48 horas.
La actividad de aguaceros asociada con un area debil de baja presion
localizada como a 450 millas al oeste noroeste de las islas de cabo
verde mas al norte permanece minima. Se espera que las condiciones
ambientales no sean favorables para desarrollo durante los proximos
dias a medida que una baja presion se mueva hacia el oeste a cerca
de 10 mph. Existe una probabilidad baja. 10 por ciento. De que
este sistema se convierta en ciclon tropical durante las proximas 48
horas.
Una onda tropical se acerca al sureste de las islas de cabo verde
esta produciendo un area amplia de nubosidad y aguaceros. Se espera
que el desarrollo. Si alguno. De este sistema sea lento a medida
que se mueva hacia el oeste entre 10 a 15 mph durante los proximos
dias. Existe una probabilidad baja. 20 por ciento. De que este
sistema se convierta en ciclon tropical durante las proximas 48
horas.
En el resto del area. No se espera formacion de ciclon tropical
durante las proximas 48 horas.
$$
Pronosticador stewart
Traduccion cortesia de la oficina del servicio nacional de
meteorologia en san juan puerto rico
000
acca62 tjsj 080019
twospn
Perspectivas sobre las condiciones del tiempo en el tropico
nws tpc/centro nacional de huracanes miami fl
800 pm edt martes 7 de septiembre de 2010
Para el atlantico norte. El mar caribe y el golfo de mexico.
El centro nacional de huracanes esta emitiendo advertencias sobre la
recien degradada depresion tropical hermine. Localizada sobre
tierra sobre texas central cerca de brady.
Aguaceros y tronadas permanecen desorganizados en asociacion con los
remanentes de gaston localizados como a 60 millas al sur de ponce
puerto rico. Se espera que el desarrollo. Si alguno. De este
sistema sea lento a medida que se mueve hacia el oeste a cerca de 15
a 20 mph. Existe una posibilidad leve. 20 por ciento. De que este
sistema se convierte en ciclon tropical nuevamente en las proximas
48 horas.
La actividad de aguaceros asociada con un area debil de baja presion
localizada como a 450 millas al oeste noroeste de las islas de cabo
verde mas al norte permanece minima. Se espera que las condiciones
ambientales no sean favorables para desarrollo durante los proximos
dias a medida que una baja presion se mueva hacia el oeste a cerca
de 10 mph. Existe una probabilidad baja. 10 por ciento. De que
este sistema se convierta en ciclon tropical durante las proximas 48
horas.
Una onda tropical se acerque al sureste de las islas de cabo verde
esta produciendo un area amplia de nubosidad y aguaceros. Se espera
que el desarrollo. Si alguno. De este sistema sea lento a medida
que se mueva hacia el oeste entre 10 a 15 mph durante los proximos
dias. Existe una probabilidad baja. 20 por ciento. De que este
sistema se convierta en ciclon tropical durante las proximas 48
horas.
En el resto del area. No se espera formacion de ciclon tropical
durante las proximas 48 horas.
$$
Pronosticador stewart
Traduccion cortesia de la oficina del servicio nacional de
meteorologia en san juan puerto rico
000
abnt20 knhc 072356
twoat
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
800 pm edt tue sep 7 2010
For the north atlantic. Caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico.
The national hurricane center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded tropical depression hermine. Located inland over central
texas near brady.
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with
the remnants of gaston located about 60 miles south of ponce puerto
rico. Development. If any. Of this system is expected to be slow
to occur as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. There is a low
chance. 20 percent. Of this system becoming a tropical cyclone
again during the next 48 hours.
Shower activity associated with a weak area of low pressure located
about 450 miles west-northwest of the northernmost cape verde
islands remains minimal. Environmental conditions are expected to
be unfavorable for development during the next couple of days as
the low moves westward near 10 mph. There is a low chance. 10
percent. Of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours.
A tropical wave near the southeastern cape verde islands is
producing a large area of cloudiness and showers. Development. If
any. Of this system is expected to be slow to occur as it moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph during the next couple of days. There is
a low chance. 20 percent. Of this system becoming a tropical
cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Elsewhere. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.
$$
forecaster stewart
000
axnt20 knhc 072352
twdat
Tropical weather discussion
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
805 pm edt tue sep 07 2010
Tropical weather discussion for north america. Central
america. Gulf of mexico. Caribbean sea. Northern sections of
south america. And atlantic ocean to the african coast from the
equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery. Meteorological analysis. Weather observations. And
radar.
Based on 1800 utc surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 utc.
. Special feature.
Tropical depression hermine is centered inland over texas near
31. 1n 99. 4w at 08/0000 utc. Or about 5 mi. 10 km sw of brady
texas. Moving nnw at 17 kt. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gust to 40 kt. Please see latest nhc intermediate public
advisory under awips/wmo headers miatcpat5/wtnt35 knhc and the
full forecast/advisory under awips/wmo headers miatcmat5/wtnt25
knhc for more details. Bands of scattered moderate convection
are inland over central and se texas as well as over the nw gulf
of mexico from 26n-33n between 92w-100w.
. Tropical waves.
A tropical wave is over the eastern tropical atlantic along
20w/21w s of 19n moving west 10-15 kt. A 1009 mb low is embedded
on the wave axis at 14n21w. This wave is in an area of deep
level moisture as indicated on total precipitable water imagery.
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 12n-15n between
18w-23w.
. Itcz.
A monsoon trough is s of 20n e of 25w to w africa. An itcz axis
continues westward from 9n25w to 8n30w to 10n45w to 11n60w.
Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave
section. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 4n-9n
between 25w-34w. Scattered moderate convection is from 6n-8n
between 40w-42w.
. Discussion.
Gulf of mexico.
T. D. Hermine is centered over central texas. See above. Isolated
moderate convection is also s of the depression along the coast
of ne mexico from 22n-26n between 96w-98w. Elsewhere. Widely
scattered moderate convection is over south florida. The
straits of florida. And w cuba s of 27n. Mostly fair weather is
over the central gulf. In the upper levels. An upper level
high is centered over the nw gulf near 27n94w enhancing
convection. A wedge of strong subsidence is over the central
gulf. Expect. Convection to persist over the e gulf e of 90w.
And over inland texas for the next 24 hours.
Caribbean sea.
A rather lax surface pressure gradient is over the caribbean sea
thus tradewinds are mostly 10-15 kt. Convection from the
remnants of gaston has reached puerto rico. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is from 16n-19n between 65w-69w moving w.
Widely scattered moderate convection is over the coast of cuba
between 78w-85w. Isolated moderate convection is along the coast
of n colombia from 10n-14n between 73w-78w. Scattered moderate
convection is inland over central america from panama to s
mexico. In the upper levels. The e caribbean has southerly flow
e of 72w, an upper level low is centered jamaica near 18n78w
moving w. The w caribbean w of 82w has ne upper level flow.
Expect. Convection from the remnants of gaston to traverse
hispaniola over the next 24 hours.
Atlantic ocean.
A weak surface trough is over the w atlantic and northern
bahamas from 31n76w to 26n79w. Isolated moderate convection is
from 22n-28n between 77w-80w. A 1022 mb high is over the w
atlantic near 30n63w producing fair weather. Another 1023 mb
high is centered over the central atlantic near 39n34w.
Elsewhere. A trough is w of the cape verde islands along 21n31w
16n31w. A 1009 mb low is embedded on the wave axis near 18n31w.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. Of note in the
upper levels. An upper level high is centered over the w
atlantic near 25n62w with strong subsidence. An upper level low
is centered over the central atlantic near 29n51w. Another upper
level high is centered over w africa near 21n16w.
For additional information please visit
http://www. Hurricanes. Gov/marine
$$
Formosa
000
wtnt35 knhc 072351
tcpat5
bulletin
tropical depression hermine intermediate advisory number
8a. Corrected
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al102010
700 pm cdt tue sep 07 2010
Corrected status to tropical depression
. Hermine weakens to a tropical depression. Still producing
heavy rainfall over central texas.
Summary of 700 pm cdt. 0000 utc. Information
----------------------------------------------
location. 31. 1n 99. 4w
about 5 mi. 10 km sw of brady texas
maximum sustained winds. 35 mph. 55 km/hr
present movement. Nnw or 345 degrees at 20 mph. 33 km/hr
minimum central pressure. 1003 mb. 29. 62 inches
Watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 700 pm cdt. 0000 utc. The center of tropical depression hermine
was located near latitude 31. 1 north. Longitude 99. 4 west. Hermine
is moving toward the north-northwest near 20 mph. 33 km/hr. A
turn to the north and then north-northeast is expected over the
next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph. 55 km/hr.
With higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast as hermine
moves farther inland over central texas.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. 29. 62 inches.
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
storm surge. Water levels along the texas coast will gradually
recede. But remain above normal for the next day or so.
Rainfall. Hermine is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches. With possible isolated maximum
amounts of 10 inches. From the middle texas coast northward
through central texas. And over central and eastern oklahoma.
These rains are expected to spread northeastward across
southeastern kansas and missouri during the next few days. The
heavy rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods.
Tornadoes. Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of
central and southeast texas this evening.
Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory. 1000 pm cdt.
$$
forecaster stewart
000
acpn50 phfo 072345
twocp
Tropical weather outlook
nws central pacific hurricane center honolulu hi
200 pm hst tue sep 7 2010
For the central north pacific. Between 140w and 180
1. An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms persists near
a trough located about 900 miles southeast of hilo.
Development. If any. Is expected to be slow to occur with this
system as it meanders slowly to the west southwest at 5 to 10 mph
over the next couple of days. There is a low chance. 20
percent. Of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next
48 hours.
2. An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is located
about 625 miles south southeast of hilo along a weak surface trough.
This trough is expected to move to the west at about 10 mph with no
significant development expected. There is a low chance. 10
percent. Of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next
48 hours.
Elsewhere. No tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday
afternoon.
$$
Brenchley
000
wtnt35 knhc 072345
tcpat5
bulletin
tropical storm hermine intermediate advisory number 8a
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al102010
700 pm cdt tue sep 07 2010
. Hermine weakens to a tropical depression. Still producing
heavy rainfall over central texas.
Summary of 700 pm cdt. 0000 utc. Information
----------------------------------------------
location. 31. 1n 99. 4w
about 5 mi. 10 km sw of brady texas
maximum sustained winds. 35 mph. 55 km/hr
present movement. Nnw or 345 degrees at 20 mph. 33 km/hr
minimum central pressure. 1003 mb. 29. 62 inches
Watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 700 pm cdt. 0000 utc. The center of tropical storm hermine was
located near latitude 31. 1 north. Longitude 99. 4 west. Hermine is
moving toward the north-northwest near 20 mph. 33 km/hr. A turn to
the north and then north-northeast is expected over the next couple
of days.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph. 55 km/hr.
With higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast as hermine
moves farther inland over central texas.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. 29. 62 inches.
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
storm surge. Water levels along the texas coast will gradually
recede. But remain above normal for the next day or so.
Rainfall. Hermine is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches. With possible isolated maximum
amounts of 10 inches. From the middle texas coast northward
through central texas. And over central and eastern oklahoma.
These rains are expected to spread northeastward across
southeastern kansas and missouri during the next few days. The
heavy rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods.
Tornadoes. Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of
central and southeast texas this evening.
Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory. 1000 pm cdt.
$$
forecaster stewart
000
abpz20 knhc 072337
twoep
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
500 pm pdt tue sep 7 2010
For the eastern north pacific. East of 140 degrees west longitude.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
$$
forecaster beven
000
axpz20 knhc 072138
twdep
Tropical weather discussion
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
2205 utc tue sep 07 2010
Tropical weather discussion for the eastern pacific ocean from
the equator to 32n. East of 140w.
Based on 1800 utc surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 utc.
. Itcz.
Axis from 12n87w to 14n102w to 10n128w to 13n140w. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection within 90 nm s of axis
from 107w to 113w.
. Discussion.
Ridge extends w from anticyclone over central mexico to second
anticyclone at 23n128w while small shortwave digs s between them
along 114w n of 25n. Water vapor imagery shows sharp cut-off
swath of dry stable air mass aloft n of itcz axis to 23n w of
109w. Broad upper level anticyclone over gulf of mexico
enhances advection of tropical moisture from t. S. Hermine
outflow through central plains while bringing strong ne flow to
e pac deep tropics. With little uplift mechanisms and strong ne
shear aloft . Adverse environment is created for any persistent
deep convection or tropical cyclone to develop.
At the surface.
High pres center 1032 mb well nw of basin extends ridge from
32n137w to 23n120w through forecast period. Weak low pres
center just w of 140w has minor effect on causing subsiding 8 ft
swells just w of 135w through next 24 hrs only.
$$
wally barnes
000
wtca45 tjsj 072044
tcpsp5
Boletin
tormenta tropical hermine advertencia numero 8
nws tpc/centro nacional de huracanes miami fl al102010
400 pm cdt martes 7 de septiembre de 2010
. Hermine continua como tormenta tropical. Produciendo lluvia
fuerte sobre texas.
Resumen de las 4:00 pm cdt. 2100 utc. Informacion
----------------------------------------------
localizacion. 29. 9 norte 98. 7 oeste
cerca de 65 millas. 105 kilometros al oeste suroeste de austin
texas vientos maximos sostenidos. 40 mph. 65 kilometros por hora
movimiento actual. Nor noroeste o 345 grados a 18 mph. 30
kilometros por hora
presion minima central. 996 milibaras. 29. 41 pulgadas
Vigilancias y avisos
--------------------
no hay vigilancias ni aviso costeros en efecto.
Discusion y perspectivas para las proximas 48 horas
------------------------------
a las 4:00 pm cdt. 2100 utc. El centro de la tormenta tropical
hermine estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 29. 9 norte. Longitud
98. 7 oeste. Hermine esta moviendose hacia el norte noroeste a cerca
de 18 millas por hora. 30 kilometros por hora. Se espera un giro
hacia del norte y luego al nor noroeste durante los proximos dias.
Los vientos maximos sostenidos estan cerca de 40 mph. 65
kilometros por hora. Con rafagas mas fuertes. Se pronostica
debilitamiento y se espera que hermine se convierta en depresion
tropical esta noche.
Los vientos de tormenta tropical se extienden hasta 45 millas. 75
kilometros. Del centro. Se reportaron vientos con fuerza de
tormenta tropical sobre el area de san antonio texas durante las
proximas horas.
La presion minima central estimada es de 996 milibaras. 29. 41
pulgadas.
Peligros afectando tierra
----------------------
viento. Vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical ocurriran sobre un
area pequenas cerca del centro de hermine durante las proximas horas.
Marejada ciclonica. Niveles del mar a lo largo de la costa de texas
estan retrocediendo gradualmente. Pero podrian permanecer sobre los
niveles normales durante el proximo dia o dos.
Lluvia. Se espera que hermine genere acumulaciones de lluvia
totales de 4 a 6 pulgadas. Con cantidades maximas aisladas de 10
pulgadas posibles. Desde la costa central de texas hacia el norte a
traves del centro de texas. Y sobre el este y centro de oklahoma.
Se espera que estas lluvias sigan propagandose hacia el noreste a
traves del sureste de kansas y missouri durante los proximos dias.
Estas lluvias fuertes pueden causar inundaciones repentinas que
amenazaran vida.
Tornados. Tornados aislados son posibles sobre porciones del
centro y sureste de texas durante el dia de hoy.
Proximas advertencias
-------------
proxima advertencia intermedia. 7:00 pm cdt.
Proxima advertencia completa. 10:00 pm cdt.
$$
Pronosticadores cangialosi/pasch
Traduccion cortesia de la oficina del servicio nacional de
meteorologia en san juan puerto rico
000
wtnt35 knhc 072033
tcpat5
bulletin
tropical storm hermine advisory number 8
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al102010
400 pm cdt tue sep 07 2010
. Hermine still a tropical storm. Producing heavy rainfall over
texas.
Summary of 400 pm cdt. 2100 utc. Information
----------------------------------------------
location. 29. 9n 98. 7w
about 65 mi. 105 km wsw of austin texas
maximum sustained winds. 40 mph. 65 km/hr
present movement. Nnw or 345 degrees at 18 mph. 30 km/hr
minimum central pressure. 996 mb. 29. 41 inches
Watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 400 pm cdt. 2100 utc. The center of tropical storm hermine was
located near latitude 29. 9 north. Longitude 98. 7 west. Hermine is
moving toward the north-northwest near 18 mph. 30 km/hr. A turn to
the north and then north-northeast is expected over the next couple
of days.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph. 65 km/hr. With higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast. And hermine is expected to become a
tropical depression tonight.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles. 75 km
from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds were reported in the
san antonio area during the past several hours.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. 29. 41 inches.
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind. Tropical storm force winds will occur over a small area near
the center of hermine for the next few hours.
Storm surge. Water levels along the texas coast will gradually
recede. But remain above normal for the next day or two.
Rainfall. Hermine is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches. With possible isolated maximum
amounts of 10 inches. From the middle texas coast northward
through central texas. And over central and eastern oklahoma.
These rains are expected to spread northeastward across
southeastern kansas and missouri during the next few days. The
heavy rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods.
Tornadoes. Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of central
and southeast texas today.
Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory. 700 pm cdt.
Next complete advisory. 1000 pm cdt.
$$
forecaster cangialosi/pasch
000
wtnt25 knhc 072032
tcmat5
tropical storm hermine forecast/advisory number 8
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al102010
2100 utc tue sep 07 2010
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Tropical storm center located near 29. 9n 98. 7w at 07/2100z
position accurate within 20 nm
Present movement toward the north-northwest or 345 degrees at 16 kt
Estimated minimum central pressure 996 mb
max sustained winds 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
34 kt. 40ne 40se 0sw 0nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat. Center located near 29. 9n 98. 7w at 07/2100z
at 07/1800z center was located near 29. 3n 98. 5w
Forecast valid 08/0600z 31. 5n 99. 4w. Inland
max wind 25 kt. Gusts 35 kt.
Forecast valid 08/1800z 34. 0n 99. 2w. Post-trop/remnt low
max wind 20 kt. Gusts 25 kt.
Forecast valid 09/0600z 36. 6n 98. 1w. Post-trop/remnt low
max wind 20 kt. Gusts 25 kt.
Forecast valid 09/1800z 39. 0n 95. 5w. Post-trop/remnt low
max wind 20 kt. Gusts 25 kt.
Forecast valid 10/1800z. Dissipated
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 29. 9n 98. 7w
Next advisory at 08/0300z
$$
forecaster cangialosi/pasch
000
wtnt35 knhc 071816 ccb
tcpat5
Bulletin
tropical storm hermine intermediate advisory number 7a. Corrected
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al102010
100 pm cdt tue sep 07 2010
Corrected time in the discussion section
. Hermine still a tropical storm inland over texas.
Summary of 100 pm cdt. 1800 utc. Information
----------------------------------------------
location. 29. 3n 98. 4w
about 15 mi. 25 km sse of san antonio texas
maximum sustained winds. 40 mph. 65 km/hr
present movement. N or 350 degrees at 20 mph. 31 km/hr
minimum central pressure. 1000 mb. 29. 53 inches
Watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory.
All tropical storm warnings have been discontinued.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect.
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
For storm information specific to your area in the united
states. Including possible inland watches and warnings. Please
monitor products issued by your local national weather service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the united states. Please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 100 pm cdt. 1800 utc. The center of tropical storm hermine was
located near latitude 29. 3 north. Longitude 98. 4 west. Hermine is
moving toward the north near 20 mph. 31 km/hr. And a general north
to north-northwest motion is expected for the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph. 65 km/hr. With higher
gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours. And hermine is likely to become a tropical depression later
today.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles. 75 km
from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. 29. 53 inches.
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind. Tropical storm force winds are still possible over a small
area near the center of hermine for the next few hours. Wind gusts
to 45 mph. 72 km/hr. Were reported near san antonio around 1200
pm cdt.
Storm surge. Water levels along the texas coast are gradually
receding. But will likely remain above normal for the next day or
two.
Rainfall. Hermine is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches. With possible isolated maximum
amounts of 10 inches. From the middle texas coast northward
through central texas. And over central and eastern oklahoma.
These rains are expected to spread northeastward across
southeastern kansas. Northwestern arkansas. And missouri during
the next few days. The heavy rainfall could cause life-threatening
flash floods.
Tornadoes. Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of central
and southeast texas today.
Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory. 400 pm cdt.
$$
forecaster pasch/cangialosi
000
acca62 tjsj 071809
twospn
Perspectivas sobre las condiciones del tiempo en el tropico
nws tpc/centro nacional de huracanes miami fl
200 pm edt martes 7 de septiembre de 2010
Para el atlantico norte. El mar caribe y el golfo de mexico.
El centro nacional de huracanes esta emitiendo advertencias sobre la
tormenta tropical hermine. Localizada cerca de 15 millas al sur
sureste de san antonio texas.
Aguaceros y tronadas permanecen desorganizados en asociacion con los
remanentes de gaston localizados como a 120 millas al sureste de
puerto rico. Se espera que el desarrollo. Si alguno. De este
sistema sea lento a medida que se mueve hacia el oeste a cerca de 15
mph. Existe una posibilidad leve. 20 por ciento. De que este
sistema se convierte en ciclon tropical nuevamente en las proximas
48 horas.
La actividad de aguaceros asociada con un area debil de baja presion
localizada como a 400 millas al oeste noroeste de las islas de cabo
verde mas al norte permanece minima. Se espera que las condiciones
ambientales no sean favorables para desarrollo durante los proximos
dias a medida que una baja presion se mueva hacia el oeste a cerca
de 10 mph. Existe una probabilidad baja. 10 por ciento. De que
este sistema se convierta en ciclon tropical durante las proximas 48
horas.
Una onda tropical se acerque a las islas de cabo verde esta
produciendo un area amplia de aguaceros desorganizados y tronadas.
Se espera que el desarrollo. Si alguno. De este sistema sea lento
a medida que se mueva hacia el oeste entre 10 a 15 mph durante los
proximos dias. Existe una probabilidad baja. 20 por ciento. De que
este sistema se convierta en ciclon tropical durante las proximas 48
horas.
En el resto del area. No se espera formacion de ciclon tropical
durante las proximas 48 horas.
$$
Pronosticadores cangialosi/pasch
Traduccion cortesia de la oficina del servicio nacional de
meteorologia en san juan puerto rico
000
wtca45 tjsj 071802
tcpsp5
Boletin
tormenta tropical hermine advertencia intermedia numero 7a
nws tpc/centro nacional de huracanes miami fl al102010
100 pm cdt martes 7 de septiembre de 2010
. Hermine continua siendo tormenta tropical sobre texas.
Resumen de la 1:00 pm cdt. 1800 utc. Informacion
----------------------------------------------
localizacion. 29. 3 norte 98. 4 oeste
cerca de 15 millas. 25 kilometros al sur sureste de san antonio texas
vientos maximos sostenidos. 40 mph. 65 kilometros por hora
movimiento actual. Norte o 350 grados a 20 mph. 31 kilometros por
hora
presion minima central. 1000 milibaras. 29. 53 pulgadas
Vigilancias y avisos
--------------------
cambios con esta advertencia.
Todos los aviso de tormenta tropical han sido descontinuados.
Resumen de los avisos y vigilancias en efecto.
No hay vigilancias ni aviso costeros en efecto.
Para informacion especifica para su area. Incluyendo vigilancias o
avisos sobre tierra. Favor estar atentos a los productos emitidos
por su oficina local del servicio nacional de meteorologia.
Discusion y perspectivas para las proximas 48 horas
------------------------------
a la 1:00 pm cdt. 1800 utc. El centro de la tormenta tropical
hermine estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 29. 3 norte. Longitud
98. 4 oeste. Hermine esta moviendose hacia el norte a cerca de 20
millas por hora. 31 kilometros por hora. Y se espera un
movimiento general hacia del norte a nor noroeste durante los proximos
dias.
Los vientos maximos sostenidos estan cerca de 40 mph. 65
kilometros por hora. Con rafagas mas fuertes. Se pronostica
debilitamiento adicional en las proximas 48 horas. Y se espera que
hermine se convierta en depresion tropical mas tarde en el dia
de hoy.
Los vientos de tormenta tropical se extienden hasta 45 millas. 75
kilometros. Del centro.
La presion minima central estimada es de 1000 milibaras. 29. 53
pulgadas.
Peligros afectando tierra
----------------------
viento. Condiciones de tormenta tropical todavia son posibles sobre
una pequena area cerca del centro de hermine durante las proximas
areas. Rafagas de viento de hasta 45 mph. 72 kilometros por
hora. Fueron reportados cerca de san antonio alrededor de las 12:00
pm cdt.
Marejada ciclonica. Niveles del mar a lo largo de la costa de texas
estan retrocediendo gradualmente. Pero podrian permanecer sobre los
niveles normales durante el proximo dia o dos.
Lluvia. Se espera que hermine genere acumulaciones de lluvia
totales de 4 a 8 pulgadas. Con cantidades maximas aisladas de 10
pulgadas posibles. Desde la costa central de texas hacia el norte a
traves del centro de texas. Y sobre el este y centro de oklahoma.
Estas lluvias se esperan sigan propagandose hacia el noreste a
traves del sureste de kansas. Noroeste de arkansas. Y missouri
durante los proximos dias. Estas lluvias fuertes pueden causar inundaciones
repentias que amenazaran vida.
Tornados. Tornados aislados son posibles sobre porciones del
centro y sureste de texas durante el dia de hoy.
Proximas advertencias
-------------
proxima advertencia completa. 4:00 pm cdt.
$$
Pronosticador pasch
Traduccion cortesia de la oficina del servicio nacional de
meteorologia en san juan puerto rico
000
axnt20 knhc 071802
twdat
Tropical weather discussion
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
205 pm edt tue sep 07 2010
Tropical weather discussion for north america. Central
america. Gulf of mexico. Caribbean sea. Northern sections of
south america. And atlantic ocean to the african coast from the
equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery. Meteorological analysis. Weather observations. And
radar.
Based on 1200 utc surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 utc.
. Special feature.
Tropical storm hermine is centered inland over southern texas
near 29. 3n 98. 4w at 07/1800 utc. Or about 15 mi sse of san
antonio texas moving n at 17 kt. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with
gust to 45 kt. Please see latest nhc intermediate public
advisory under awips/wmo headers miatcpat5/wtnt35 knhc and the
full forecast/advisory under awips/wmo headers miatcmat5/wtnt25
knhc for more details. Heavy rain with embedded isolated
thunderstorms are inland over central and se texas. With the
possibility of isolated tornadoes developing in these regions.
The bands associated to the system continue to affect the nw
gulf n of 23n w of 94w. Water levels along the texas coast are
gradually receding. But will likely remain above normal for the
next day or two.
. Tropical waves.
A tropical wave is over the far eastern tropical atlantic
basin. Analyzed along 21w s of 18n moving west 10-15 kt.
Satellite derived winds indicate broad cyclonic turning around
the wave axis centered near 14n. This wave is embedded in a
surge of deep level moisture as indicated on total precipitable
water imagery. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
between the coast of west africa and 26w from 8n to 18n.
. Itcz.
The itcz axis is analyzed from 11n24w continuing westward along
10n35w 11n45w 10n55w 12n65w. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is between the coast of west africa and 26w from 8n
to 17n. This area of convection is also associated with a
tropical wave along 21w s of 18n. Similar convection is south of
the itcz from 4n to 8n between 23w and 36w. Associated with the
monsoonal troughiness in the eastern tropical atlc e of 36w.
. Discussion.
Gulf of mexico.
Although tropical storm hermine has moved inland over southern
texas. The bands associated to the system continue to be the
primary focus this afternoon for the nw gulf of mexico. See
special features above for more details. Elsewhere e of 93w. A
longwave upper level trough extends across the ne gulf and
northern half of the florida peninsula noted by strong
subsidence aloft on water vapor imagery. This upper level
feature is generating scattered showers over the southeastern
half of the gulf s of 27n e of 88w. Stronger showers and
thunderstorms are over the florida straits moving westward into
the gulf. Computer models suggest that the upper level scenario
will continue to generate convection in the eastern region of
the gulf s of 28n e of 87w over the next 24 to 48 hrs. With the
strongest convection across the florida straits.
Caribbean sea.
The remnant 1010 mb low pressure center of gaston is about 130
nm se of the island of puerto rico near 17n63w. A surface trough
extends ne from the low center across eastern puerto rico into
the atlc along 18n65w. The convection generated from this system
covers the area n of 15n between 62w and 68w. Doppler radar
imagery from puerto rico indicates scattered moderate to heavy
showers and thunderstorms in this area. Model guidance suggest
the low level circulation of gaston will continue to weaken over
the next 24 hours and dissipate by 48 hours as it moves west
across the n caribbean. However. The remnant trough will
continue to generate convection across this region during the
forecast period. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are over the sw basin s of 15n w of 75w. Associated with nearby
convergence in the vicinity of the monsoonal trough/itcz.
Computer models suggest this area of convection will linger in
this region over the next 24 hrs. Relatively dry/stable
conditions are noted elsewhere across the caribbean this
afternoon.
Atlantic ocean.
A broad elongated upper level low centered between eastern cuba
and jamaica supports a rather weak surface trough analyzed from
24n74w to 20n77w enhancing scattered weak convection within 70
nm east of the trough axis. A longwave upper level trough is
moving off the eastern seaboard supporting a surface trough
analyzed from 31n75w to 27n78w producing scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection to the far western atlc w of 75w
including the florida straits. This area of convection is
expected to linger in this region over the next 24 hrs. A
surface trough extends from the remnant low center of gaston in
the ne caribbean across puerto rico into the atlantic from
17n63w to 23n66w. Scattered weak convection is within 200 nm
west of the trough axis n of 20n. Expected to become less in 24
to 48 hrs. Another surface trough is over the eastern atlc
extending from 22n34w to 15n25w generating scattered moderate
convection within 70 nm on either side of the axis n of 16n.
This system will continue to move west with convection over the
next 24 hours. Elsewhere across the discussion area. Broad
mid/upper level sub-tropical ridge dominates the atlc and
supports the surface 1024 mb high near 37n32w.
For additional information please visit
http://www. Hurricanes. Gov/marine
$$
Garcia
000
acpn50 phfo 071753
twocp
Tropical weather outlook
nws central pacific hurricane center honolulu hi
800 am hst tue sep 7 2010
For the central north pacific. Between 140w and 180
1. An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms persists near
a trough located about 900 miles southeast of hilo. This feature is
expected to show little. If any organization as it drifts slowly
to the west southwest at 5 to 10 mph over the next couple of days.
There is a low chance. 20 percent. Of this system becoming a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
2. An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is located
about 700 miles south southeast of hilo along a weak surface trough.
This trough is expected to move to the west at about 10 mph with no
significant development expected. There is a low chance. 10
percent. Of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next
48 hours.
Elsewhere. No tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday
morning.
$$
Brenchley
000
abpz20 knhc 071751
twoep
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
issued by the hydrometeorological prediction center camp springs md
1100 am pdt tue sep 7 2010
For the eastern north pacific. East of 140 degrees west longitude.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
$$
forecaster vojtesak
000
abnt20 knhc 071746
twoat
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
200 pm edt tue sep 7 2010
For the north atlantic. Caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico.
The national hurricane center is issuing advisories on tropical
storm hermine. Located inland about 15 miles south-southeast of san
antonio texas.
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with
the remnants of gaston located about 120 miles southeast of puerto
rico. Development. If any. Of this system is expected to be slow
to occur as it moves westward near 15 mph. There is a low
chance. 20 percent. Of this system becoming a tropical cyclone
again during the next 48 hours.
Shower activity associated with a weak area of low pressure located
about 400 miles west-northwest of the northernmost cape verde
islands remains minimal. Environmental conditions are expected to
be unfavorable for development during the next couple of days as
the low moves westward near 10 mph. There is a low chance. 10
percent. Of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours.
A tropical wave approaching the cape verde islands is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Development. If any. Of this system is expected to be slow to
occur as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph during the next couple
of days. There is a low chance. 20 percent. Of this system
becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Elsewhere. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.
$$
forecaster cangialosi/pasch
000
wtnt35 knhc 071744
tcpat5
bulletin
tropical storm hermine intermediate advisory number 7a. Corrected
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al102010
100 pm cdt tue sep 07 2010
Corrected headline below
. Hermine still a tropical storm inland over texas.
Summary of 100 pm cdt. 1800 utc. Information
----------------------------------------------
location. 29. 3n 98. 4w
about 15 mi. 25 km sse of san antonio texas
maximum sustained winds. 40 mph. 65 km/hr
present movement. N or 350 degrees at 20 mph. 31 km/hr
minimum central pressure. 1000 mb. 29. 53 inches
Watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory.
All tropical storm warnings have been discontinued.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect.
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
For storm information specific to your area in the united
states. Including possible inland watches and warnings. Please
monitor products issued by your local national weather service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the united states. Please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 1000 am cdt. 1500 utc. The center of tropical storm hermine was
located near latitude 29. 3 north. Longitude 98. 4 west. Hermine is
moving toward the north near 20 mph. 31 km/hr. And a general north
to north-northwest motion is expected for the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph. 65 km/hr. With higher
gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours. And hermine is likely to become a tropical depression later
today.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles. 75 km
from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. 29. 53 inches.
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind. Tropical storm force winds are still possible over a small
area near the center of hermine for the next few hours. Wind gusts
to 45 mph. 72 km/hr. Were reported near san antonio around 1200
pm cdt.
Storm surge. Water levels along the texas coast are gradually
receding. But will likely remain above normal for the next day or
two.
Rainfall. Hermine is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches. With possible isolated maximum
amounts of 10 inches. From the middle texas coast northward
through central texas. And over central and eastern oklahoma.
These rains are expected to spread northeastward across
southeastern kansas. Northwestern arkansas. And missouri during
the next few days. The heavy rainfall could cause life-threatening
flash floods.
Tornadoes. Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of central
and southeast texas today.
Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory. 400 pm cdt.
$$
forecaster pasch
000
wtnt35 knhc 071740
tcpat5
bulletin
tropical storm hermine intermediate advisory number 7a
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al102010
100 pm cdt tue sep 07 2010
. Hermine .
Summary of 100 pm cdt. 1800 utc. Information
----------------------------------------------
location. 29. 3n 98. 4w
about 15 mi. 25 km sse of san antonio texas
maximum sustained winds. 40 mph. 65 km/hr
present movement. N or 350 degrees at 20 mph. 31 km/hr
minimum central pressure. 1000 mb. 29. 53 inches
Watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory.
All tropical storm warnings have been discontinued.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect.
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
For storm information specific to your area. Including possible
inland watches and warnings. Please monitor products issued by
your local national weather service forecast office.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 1000 am cdt. 1500 utc. The center of tropical storm hermine was
located near latitude 29. 3 north. Longitude 98. 4 west. Hermine is
moving toward the north near 20 mph. 31 km/hr. And a general north
to north-northwest motion is expected for the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph. 65 km/hr. With higher
gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours. And hermine is likely to become a tropical depression later
today.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles. 75 km
from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. 29. 53 inches.
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind. Tropical storm force winds are still possible over a small
area near the center of hermine for the next few hours. Wind gusts
to 45 mph. 72 km/hr. Were reported near san antonio around 1200
pm cdt.
Storm surge. Water levels along the texas coast are gradually
receding. But will likely remain above normal for the next day or
two.
Rainfall. Hermine is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches. With possible isolated maximum
amounts of 10 inches. From the middle texas coast northward
through central texas. And over central and eastern oklahoma.
These rains are expected to spread northeastward across
southeastern kansas. Northwestern arkansas. And missouri during
the next few days. The heavy rainfall could cause life-threatening
flash floods.
Tornadoes. Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of central
and southeast texas today.
Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory. 400 pm cdt.
$$
forecaster pasch/cangialosi
000
axpz20 knhc 071603
twdep
Tropical weather discussion
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
1605 utc tue sep 07 2010
Tropical weather discussion for the eastern pacific ocean from
the equator to 32n. East of 140w.
Based on 1200 utc surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 utc.
. Itcz.
Axis from from 13n107w to 10n130w to 13n140w. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection from 06n to 10n between 90w and
100w. From 10n to 13n between 87w and 92w. And from 11n to 12n
between 112w and 113w.
. Discussion.
Ridge extends w from anticyclone over central mexico to another
anticyclone at 22n128w while small shortwave digs s between them
along 114w n of 25n. Water vapor imagery shows sharp cut-off
swath of dry stable air mass aloft from 15n to 23n w of 109w.
Broad upper level cyclone over gulf of mexico enhances advection
of tropical moisture from t. S. Hermine outflow through central
plains while bringing strong ne flow to e pac deep tropics.
This in turn creates adverse shear environment aloft for any
persistent deep convection or tropical cyclone to develop.
At the surface.
High pres center 1032 mb well nw of basin extends ridge from
32n135w20n120w through forecast period. Weak low pres center
just w of 140w has minor effect on causing 8 ft seas just w of
135w through next 24 hrs only.
$$
wally barnes
000
wtca45 tjsj 071459
tcpsp5
Boletin
tormenta tropical hermine advertencia numero 7
nws tpc/centro nacional de huracanes miami fl al102010
1000 am cdt martes 7 de septiembre de 2010
. Hermine se mueve mas sobre tierra en el sur de texas. Continua
siendo tormenta tropical.
Resumen de las 10:00 am cdt. 1500 utc. Informacion
----------------------------------------------
localizacion. 28. 3 norte 98. 2 oeste
cerca de 60 millas. 95 kilometros al noroeste de corpus christi texas
vientos maximos sostenidos. 40 mph. 65 kilometros por hora
movimiento actual. Norte o 350 grados a 17 mph. 28 kilometros por
hora
presion minima central. 991 milibaras. 29. 26 pulgadas
Vigilancias y avisos
--------------------
cambios con esta advertencia.
El aviso de tormenta tropical ha diso discontinuado al sur de la
bahia baffin texas.
Resumen de los avisos y vigilancias en efecto.
Un aviso de tormenta tropical esta en efecto para.
* Bahia baffin hacia el norte hasta port oconnor texas
Para informacion especifica para su area. Incluyendo vigilancias o
avisos sobre tierra. Favor estar atentos a los productos emitidos
por su oficina local del servicio nacional de meteorologia.
Discusion y perspectivas para las proximas 48 horas
------------------------------
a las 10:00 am cdt. 1500 utc. El centro de la tormenta tropical
hermine estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 28. 3 norte. Longitud
98. 2 oeste. Hermine esta moviendose hacia el norte a cerca de 17
millas por hora. 28 kilometros por hora. Y se espera un movimiento
hacia del norte a nor noroeste durante los proximos dias.
Los vientos maximos sostenidos estan cerca de 40 mph. 65
kilometros por hora. Con rafagas mas fuertes. Se pronostica
debilitamiento adicional en las proximas 48 horas. Y se espera que
hermine podria convertirse en depresion tropical mas tarde en el dia
de hoy.
Los vientos de tormenta tropical se extienden hasta 105 millas. 165
kilometros. Mayormente al este del centro.
La presion minima central estimada es de 991 milibaras. 29. 26
pulgadas.
Peligros afectando tierra
----------------------
viento. Condiciones de tormenta tropical estan ocurriendo sobre
porciones del sur de texas. Estas condiciones continuaran
disminuyendo hoy.
Lluvia. Se espera que hermine genere acumulaciones de lluvia
totales de 4 a 8 pulgadas. Con cantidades maximas aisladas de 10
pulgadas posibles. Desde la costa central de texas hacia el norte a
traves del centro de texas. Y sobre el este y centro de oklahoma.
Estas lluvias se esperan sigan propagandose hacia el noreste a
traves del sureste de kansas. Noroeste de arkansas. Y missouri
durante los proximos dias. Estas cantidades de lluvia pueden causar
inundaciones repentias que amenazaran vida.
Tornados. Tornados aislados son posibles a traves de porciones del
centro y sureste de texas durante el dia de hoy.
Proximas advertencias
-------------
proxima advertencia intermedia. 1:00 pm cdt.
Proxima advertencia completa. 4:00 pm cdt.
$$
Pronosticadores pasch/cangialosi
Traduccion cortesia de la oficina del servicio nacional de
meteorologia en san juan puerto rico
000
wtnt35 knhc 071439
tcpat5
bulletin
tropical storm hermine advisory number 7
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al102010
1000 am cdt tue sep 07 2010
. Hermine moving farther inland over south texas. Still a tropical
storm.
Summary of 1000 am cdt. 1500 utc. Information
-----------------------------------------------
location. 28. 3n 98. 2w
about 60 mi. 95 km nw of corpus christi texas
maximum sustained winds. 40 mph. 65 km/hr
present movement. N or 350 degrees at 17 mph. 28 km/hr
minimum central pressure. 991 mb. 29. 26 inches
Watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory.
The tropical storm warning has been discontinued south of baffin
bay texas.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for.
* Baffin bay northward to port oconnor texas
For storm information specific to your area in the united
states. Including possible inland watches and warnings. Please
monitor products issued by your local national weather service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the united states. Please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 1000 am cdt. 1500 utc. The center of tropical storm hermine was
located near latitude 28. 3 north. Longitude 98. 2 west. Hermine is
moving toward the north near 17 mph. 28 km/hr. And a general north
to north-northwest motion is expected for the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph. 65 km/hr. With higher
gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours. And hermine is likely to become a tropical depression later
today.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles. 165 km
from the center. Mainly to the east.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. 29. 26 inches.
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
south texas. These conditions will gradually diminish today.
Storm surge. Water levels along the texas coast will gradually
recede. But remain above normal for the next day or two.
Rainfall. Hermine is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches. With possible isolated maximum
amounts of 10 inches. From the middle texas coast northward
through central texas. And over central and eastern oklahoma.
These rains are expected to spread northeastward across
southeastern kansas. Northwestern arkansas. And missouri during
the next few days. The heavy rainfall could cause life-threatening
flash floods.
Tornadoes. Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of central
and southeast texas today.
Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory. 100 pm cdt.
Next complete advisory. 400 pm cdt.
$$
forecaster pasch/cangialosi
000
wtnt25 knhc 071435
tcmat5
tropical storm hermine forecast/advisory number 7
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al102010
1500 utc tue sep 07 2010
Changes in watches and warnings with this advisory.
The tropical storm warning has been discontinued south of baffin
bay texas.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for.
* Baffin bay northward to port oconnor texas
Tropical storm center located near 28. 3n 98. 2w at 07/1500z
position accurate within 20 nm
Present movement toward the north or 350 degrees at 15 kt
Estimated minimum central pressure 991 mb
max sustained winds 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
34 kt. 90ne 90se 0sw 0nw.
12 ft seas. 180ne 240se 0sw 0nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat. Center located near 28. 3n 98. 2w at 07/1500z
at 07/1200z center was located near 27. 7n 98. 1w
Forecast valid 08/0000z 30. 1n 99. 2w. Inland
max wind 25 kt. Gusts 35 kt.
Forecast valid 08/1200z 32. 3n 99. 9w. Post-trop/remnt low
max wind 20 kt. Gusts 25 kt.
Forecast valid 09/0000z 34. 9n 99. 3w. Post-trop/remnt low
max wind 20 kt. Gusts 25 kt.
Forecast valid 09/1200z 37. 6n 97. 7w. Post-trop/remnt low
max wind 20 kt. Gusts 25 kt.
Forecast valid 10/1200z. Dissipated
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 28. 3n 98. 2w
Next advisory at 07/2100z
$$
forecaster pasch/cangialosi
000
wtca45 tjsj 071232
tcpsp5
Boletin
tormenta tropical hermine advertencia intermedia numero 6a
nws tpc/centro nacional de huracanes miami fl al102010
700 am cdt martes 7 de septiembre de 2010
. Hermine continua moviendose sobre tierra en el sur de
texas. Esparciendo fuertes lluvias y vientos hacia el norte.
Resumen de la 7:00 am cdt. 1200 utc. Informacion
----------------------------------------------
localizacion. 27. 7 norte 98. 2 oeste
cerca de 35 millas. 60 kilometros al suroeste de mathis texas
cerca de 50 millas. 80 kilometros al oeste de corpus christi texas
vientos maximos sostenidos. 45 mph. 75 kilometros por hora
movimiento actual. Nor noroeste o 345 grados a 17 mph. 28
kilometros por hora
presion minima central. 995 milibaras. 29. 38 pulgadas
Vigilancias y avisos
--------------------
cambios con esta advertencia.
Ninguno.
Resumen de los avisos y vigilancias en efecto.
Un aviso de tormenta tropical esta en efecto para.
* Desembocadura del rio grande hacia el norte hasta port oconnor texas
Para informacion especifica para su area. Incluyendo vigilancias o
avisos sobre tierra. Favor estar atentos a los productos emitidos
por su oficina local del servicio nacional de meteorologia.
Discusion y perspectivas para las proximas 48 horas
------------------------------
a las 7:00 pm cdt. 1200 utc. El centro de la tormenta tropical
hermine estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 27. 7 norte. Longitud
98. 2 oeste. Hermine esta moviendose hacia el nor noroeste a cerca de
17 millas por hora. 28 kilometros por hora. Se espera un giro hacia
el norte y luego hacia el noreste con una disminucion en la
velocidad de traslacion es anticipado durante los proximos dias.
Los vientos maximos sostenidos han disminuido a cerca de 45 mph. 75
kilometros por hora. Con rafagas mas fuertes. Se pronostica
debilitamiento adicional en las proximas 48 horas. Y se espera que
hermine podria convertirse en depresion tropical mas tarde en el dia
de hoy.
Los vientos de tormenta tropical se extienden hasta 105 millas. 165
kilometros. Mayormente al noreste del centro. Una rafaga de 56
mph. 91 kilometros por hora. Fue reportado en kingsville texas
justo antes de las 6 am cdt.
Se estima la presion minima central es de 995 milibaras. 29. 38
pulgadas.
Peligros afectando tierra
----------------------
viento. Condiciones de tormenta tropical estan ocurriendo sobre
porciones del sur de texas. Estas condiciones continuaran
esparciendose hacia el norte a traves de porciones del sur de texas
cerca y a lo largo de la trayectoria de hermine durante la manana.
Marejada ciclonica. La marejada aumentara los niveles del mar tanto
como de 1 a 3 pies sobre el nivel de tierra a lo largo de la costa
inmediata del sur de texas. Los niveles del mar comenzaran a recesar
mas tarde hoy mientras hermine se mueve hacia tierra.
Lluvia. Se espera que hermine genere acumulaciones de lluvia de 4 a
8 pulgadas. Con cantidades maximas aisladas de 12 pulgadas
posibles. Sobre el sur de texas hacia el norte a traves del centro
de texas y norte de texas. Y sobre el este y centro de oklahoma.
Estas lluvias se esperan sigan propagandose a traves del sureste de
kansas. Noroeste de arkansas. Y missouri durante los proximos
dias. Estas cantidades de lluvia pueden causar inundaciones
repentias que amenazaran vida.
Tornados. Tornados aislados son posibles a traves de porciones del
sureste de texas durante el dia de hoy.
Proximas advertencias
-------------
proxima advertencia completa. 10:00 am cdt.
$$
Pronosticadores pasch/cangialosi
Traduccion cortesia de la oficina del servicio nacional de
meteorologia en san juan puerto rico
000
acca62 tjsj 071225
twospn
Perspectivas sobre las condiciones del tiempo en el tropico
nws tpc/centro nacional de huracanes miami fl
800 am edt martes 7 de septiembre de 2010
Para el atlantico norte. El mar caribe y el golfo de mexico.
El centro nacional de huracanes esta emitiendo advertencias sobre la
tormenta tropical hermine. Localizada cerca de 50 millas al oeste
de corpus christi texas.
Aguaceros y tronadas sobre las islas de sotavento y el noreste del
caribe estan asociadas con los remanentes de gaston. Se anticipa que
este sistema continue al oeste de 15 a 20 mph sin ningun desarrollo
significativo durante los proximos dias. Existe una probabilidad
baja. 10 por ciento. De que este sistema se convierta en ciclon
tropical nuevamente durante las proximas 48 horas.
Un area debil de baja presion localizada como a 350 millas al oeste
de las islas de cabo verde del norte esta produciendo aguaceros
desorganizados y tronadas. Se espera que las condiciones ambientales
no favorezcan el desarrollo de este sistema durante los proximos
dias mientras se mueva al oeste a cerca de 10 mph. Existe una
probabilidad baja. 10 por ciento. De que este sistema se convierta
en ciclon tropical durante las proximas 48 horas.
Aguaceros y tronadas localizadas entre las islas de
cabo verde y la costa oeste de africa estan asociado con una onda
tropical. El desarrollo de este sistema. De ocurir alguno. Debera
ser lento mientras se mueva al oeste de 10 a 15 mph. Existe una
probabilidad baja. 10 por ciento. De que este sistema se convierta
en ciclon tropical durante las proximas 48 horas.
En el resto del area. No se espera formacion de ciclon tropical
durante las proximas 48 horas.
$$
Pronosticadores cangialosi/pasch
Traduccion cortesia de la oficina del servicio nacional de
meteorologia en san juan puerto rico
000
axnt20 knhc 071200
twdat
Tropical weather discussion
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
805 am edt tue sep 07 2010
Tropical weather discussion for north america. Central
america. Gulf of mexico. Caribbean sea. Northern sections of
south america. And atlantic ocean to the african coast from the
equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery. Meteorological analysis. Weather observations. And
radar.
Based on 0600 utc surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 utc.
. Special features.
Tropical storm hermine is centered near 27. 7n 98. 2w at 07/1200
utc or about 35 nm sw of mathis texas and about 50 nm w of
corpus christi texas moving n-nw at 15 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40
kt with gust to 50 kt. Please see latest nhc intermediate public
advisory under awips/wmo headers miatcpat5/wtnt35 knhc and the
full forecast/advisory under awips/wmo headers miatcmat5/wtnt25
knhc for more details. Heavy rain with embedded isolated
thunderstorms are inland from just n of brownsville to houston
texas. Scattered to heavy showers with scattered thunderstorms
cover the gulf waters from 22n-29n between 94w-97w.
. Tropical waves.
Tropical wave is along 20w s of 16n moving w 10-15 kt. Wave is
embedded within a moisture maximum as indicated on the total
precipitable water imagery. Wave is embedded within a broad
cyclonic rotation that covers the area from 9n-20n between the
coast of w africa and 25w. Scattered/numerous strong convection
is within 60 nm of 15n between 20w-24w. Scattered moderate/
isolated strong convection covers the remainder of the area from
12n-15n between 19w-25w.
. Itcz.
The monsoon trough extends from 11n22w 10n30w to 9n38w while the
itcz axis continues to south america near 9n61w. Clusters of
scattered moderate/isolated strong convection are within 60 nm
of 6n from 27w-35w and 90/120 nm either side of the itcz between
from 53w-59w.
. Discussion.
Gulf of mexico.
The primary concern this morning remains t. S. Hermine. See
special features above. Broad upper ridge anchored over t. S.
Hermine covers much of the gulf waters drawing dry stable air s
over the gulf e of 90w. A narrow upper level trough extends off
the eastern seaboard into the gulf across the florida peninsula
near 27n80w to just w of the florida keys generating scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms s of 26n to cuba e of 83w across
the s florida peninsula into the w atlc and through the florida
straits. This scenario is leaving the gulf between 83w-84w under
clear skies this morning.
Caribbean sea.
The upper ridge that covers most the gulf of mexico covers the w
caribbean with ne to e flow aloft w of 80w. Diffluence aloft is
enhancing scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms n of 18n to
over cuba between 79w-85w. An upper ridge anchored in the
central atlc covers the e caribbean e of 73w. The area between
these upper ridges is dominated by an elongated and narrow upper
low centered over cuba near 21n76w extending s to 16n78w. This
upper low is supporting a surface trough analyzed from 18n76w
over e cuba near 20n75w into the w atlc and is generating
scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms n of cuba. An inverted
upper level trough extends from over w panama near 9n82w to
15n80w generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms s of
14n w of 73w to over central america. Scattered showers/isolated
thunderstorms are then ne caribbean n of 14n e of 67w including
the leeward/virgin islands and puerto rico compliments of the
1010 mb low. Remnants of gaston located just e of the leeward
islands.
Atlantic ocean.
A narrow upper level trough extends s just off the eastern
seaboard into the gulf of mexico over the florida peninsula near
27n80w generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms s of
28n w of 77w to over s florida and through the florida straits.
Isolated showers are from 28n-31n w of 75w to the coast of
florida. The upper low centered over cuba near 21n76w extends
over the w atlc within 150 nm of the axis to 29n71w supporting a
surface trough analyzed from 24n73w to over cuba near 20n75w
generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms s of 24n to
over cuba between 74w-76w. The remainder of the atlc e of 40w is
dominated by a broad upper ridge anchored near 24n58w with
strong subsidence/dry stable air. However. Beneath this upper
ridge is a 1010 mb low. Remnants of gaston. Centered just e of
the leeward islands generating scattered showers/isolated
thunderstorms from 14n-23n between 61w-68w to over the leeward/
virgin islands and puerto rico. A surface ridge dominates most
of the atlc n of 25n e of 70w anchored by a 1025 mb high well n
of the discussion area. A second upper ridge is anchored w
africa extending an axis w into the e tropical atlc along 21n to
40w. Beneath is a surface trough that extends from 21n26w to
16n33w with scattered showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms from 16n-20n between 29w-35w.
For additional information please visit
http://www. Hurricanes. Gov/marine
$$
paw
000
abnt20 knhc 071158
twoat
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
800 am edt tue sep 7 2010
For the north atlantic. Caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico.
The national hurricane center is issuing advisories on tropical
storm hermine. Located inland about 50 miles west of corpus christi
texas.
Cloudiness and showers over the leeward islands and the northeastern
caribbean sea are associated with the remnants of gaston. This
system is expected to continue westward at 15 to 20 mph with no
significant development during the next couple of days.
There is a low chance. 10 percent. Of this system becoming a
tropical cyclone again during the next 48 hours.
A weak area of low pressure located about 350 miles west of the
northernmost cape verde islands is producing disorganized cloudiness
and showers. Environmental conditions are expected to remain
unfavorable for development during the next couple of days as the
low moves westward near 10 mph. There is a low chance. 10
percent. Of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours.
Showers and thunderstorms located between the cape verde islands and
the west coast of africa are associated with a tropical wave.
Development. If any. Of this system is expected to be slow to
occur as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph during the next couple
of days. There is a low chance. 10 percent. Of this system
becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Elsewhere. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.
$$
forecaster cangialosi/pasch
000
abpz20 knhc 071156
twoep
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
500 am pdt tue sep 7 2010
For the eastern north pacific. East of 140 degrees west longitude.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
$$
forecaster cangialosi
000
wtnt35 knhc 071154
tcpat5
bulletin
tropical storm hermine intermediate advisory number 6a
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al102010
700 am cdt tue sep 07 2010
. Hermine continues moving inland over south texas. Spreading very
heavy rains and strong winds northward.
Summary of 700 am cdt. 1200 utc. Information
----------------------------------------------
location. 27. 7n 98. 2w
about 35 mi. 60 km sw of mathis texas
about 50 mi. 80 km w of corpus christi texas
maximum sustained winds. 45 mph. 75 km/hr
present movement. Nnw or 345 degrees at 17 mph. 28 km/hr
minimum central pressure. 995 mb. 29. 38 inches
Watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory.
None.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for.
* The mouth of the rio grande northward to port oconnor texas
For storm information specific to your area. Including possible
inland watches and warnings. Please monitor products issued by
your local national weather service forecast office.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 700 am cdt. 1200 utc. The center of tropical storm hermine was
located near latitude 27. 7 north. Longitude 98. 2 west. Hermine is
moving toward the north-northwest near 17 mph. 28 km/hr. A turn
toward the north and then north-northeast with a decrease in
forward speed is expected over the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph. 75 km/hr.
With higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours. And hermine is expected to become a tropical
depression later today.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles. 165
km. Mainly to the northeast of the center. A wind gust of 56
mph. 91 km/hr. Was reported at kingsville texas just before 6 am
cdt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. 29. 38 inches.
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of deep
south texas. These conditions will continue to spread northward
across portions of southern texas near and along the path of
hermine through this morning.
Storm surge. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast of southern
texas. Water levels will begin to recede later today as hermine
moves farther inland.
Rainfall. Hermine is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches. With isolated maximum amounts of
12 inches possible. From southern texas northward through central
and northern texas. And over central and eastern oklahoma. These
rains are expected to spread northeastward across southeastern
kansas. Northwestern arkansas. And missouri during the next few
days. The heavy rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods.
Tornadoes. Isolated tornadoes are possible across portions of
southeast texas through today.
Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory. 1000 am cdt.
$$
forecaster pasch/cangialosi
000
acpn50 phfo 071145
twocp
Tropical weather outlook
nws central pacific hurricane center honolulu hi
200 am hst tue sep 7 2010
For the central north pacific. Between 140w and 180
1. Showers and isolated thunderstorms persist along an
east-northeast to west-southwest oriented trough about 850 miles
southeast of hilo. Hawaii. The trough has been nearly stationary
over the past six hours. A couple of vortices. Or weak
circulations. Embedded within the trough have shown little sign of
increased organization. There is a low chance. 10 percent. Of a
tropical cyclone forming in this area during the next 48 hours.
Elsewhere. No tropical cyclones are expected through late Wednesday
night.
$$
Kinel
000
axpz20 knhc 071000
twdep
Tropical weather discussion
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
1005 utc tue sep 07 2010
Tropical weather discussion for the eastern pacific ocean from
the equator to 32n. East of 140w.
Based on 0600 utc surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 utc.
. Itcz.
Axis from 15n95w to 14n109w to 10n122w to 10n132w to 14n140w.
Scattered moderate convection within 45 nm s of axis from 107w
to 115w.
. Discussion.
Aloft. Ridge extends west from central mexico to an anticyclone
centered near 22n128w. Water vapor imagery shows a cut-off upper
low centered just west of baja california near 27n115w. Strong
east winds south of the ridge are creating an environment of high
vertical shear in the eastern pacific hostile to persistent deep
convection and possible tropical cyclone formation.
Surface. High pres ridge over nw portion of area that extends
from 32n138w to near 22n128w is expected to persist with little
change the next 2-3 days. Low pres trough from 1012 mb low east
of the area near 14n143w to 12n135w. Associated with the itcz.
Is expected to persist and gradually shift westward from 10n140w
to near 12n126w by Thursday. Low pres trough extending n-s across
the gulf of california expected to persist and intensify slightly
over the next 2 days. Potential for tropical cyclone development
is low. Weak low level vortices are evident in the monsoon trough
east of 115w. But none have persistent convection or organized
low cloud lines.
Marine. Sea conditions expected to subside across the discussion
area through Friday. Weaker winds w of california and associated
with the sw monsoon are expected. By 48 hours. Ww3 wave model
shows winds and seas below high seas criteria of 20 kt and 8 ft
over the entire forecast area. Except to 8 ft near 25n128w.
$$
mundell
000
wtnt35 knhc 070848
tcpat5
bulletin
tropical storm hermine advisory number 6
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al102010
400 am cdt tue sep 07 2010
. Hermine lashes deep south texas. Strong winds and heavy rain
spreading northward.
Summary of 400 am cdt. 0900 utc. Information
----------------------------------------------
location. 27. 0n 98. 0w
about 15 mi. 25 km sse of falfurrias texas
about 65 mi. 105 km sw of corpus christi texas
maximum sustained winds. 50 mph. 85 km/hr
present movement. Nnw or 340 degrees at 17 mph. 28 km/hr
minimum central pressure. 993 mb. 29. 32 inches
Watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory.
The government of mexico has discontinued all tropical storm
warnings for mexico.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for.
* The mouth of the rio grande northward to port oconnor texas
For storm information specific to your area. Including possible
inland watches and warnings. Please monitor products issued by
your local national weather service forecast office.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 400 am cdt. 0900 utc. The center of tropical storm hermine was
located near latitude 27. 0 north. Longitude 98. 0 west. Hermine is
moving toward the north-northwest near 17 mph. 28 km/hr. A turn
toward the north and then north-northeast with a decrease in
forward speed is expected over the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph. 85 km/hr.
With higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours. And hermine is expected to become a tropical
depression by this evening.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles. 165
km. Mainly to the northeast of the center. A sustained wind of 55
mph. 89 km/hr. And a gust to 72 mph. 117 km/hr. Were reported
at harlingen texas around 100 am cdt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. 29. 32 inches.
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of deep
south texas. These conditions will continue to spread northward
across portions of southern texas near and along the path of
hermine through this morning and early afternoon.
Storm surge. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast of southern
texas. Water levels will begin to recede later today as hermine
moves farther inland.
Rainfall. Hermine is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches. With isolated maximum amounts of
12 inches possible. From southern texas northward through central
and northern texas. And over central and eastern oklahoma. These
rains are expected to spread northeastward across southeastern
kansas. Northwestern arkansas. And missouri during the next few
days. The heavy rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods.
Tornadoes. Isolated tornadoes are possible across portions of
southeast texas through today.
Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory. 700 am cdt.
Next complete advisory. 1000 am cdt.
$$
forecaster berg/brown
000
wtnt25 knhc 070846
tcmat5
tropical storm hermine forecast/advisory number 6
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al102010
0900 utc tue sep 07 2010
Changes in watches and warnings with this advisory.
The government of mexico has discontinued all tropical storm
warnings for mexico.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for.
* The mouth of the rio grande northward to port oconnor texas
Tropical storm center located near 27. 0n 98. 0w at 07/0900z
position accurate within 20 nm
Present movement toward the north-northwest or 340 degrees at 15 kt
Estimated minimum central pressure 993 mb
max sustained winds 45 kt with gusts to 60 kt.
34 kt. 90ne 75se 20sw 30nw.
12 ft seas. 120ne 75se 0sw 0nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat. Center located near 27. 0n 98. 0w at 07/0900z
at 07/0600z center was located near 26. 2n 97. 7w
Forecast valid 07/1800z 28. 7n 99. 0w. Inland
max wind 35 kt. Gusts 45 kt.
34 kt. 60ne 30se 0sw 0nw.
Forecast valid 08/0600z 30. 9n 100. 1w. Inland
max wind 30 kt. Gusts 40 kt.
Forecast valid 08/1800z 33. 3n 100. 2w. Post-trop/remnt low
max wind 25 kt. Gusts 35 kt.
Forecast valid 09/0600z 36. 1n 99. 0w. Post-trop/remnt low
max wind 25 kt. Gusts 35 kt.
Forecast valid 10/0600z. Dissipated
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 27. 0n 98. 0w
Next advisory at 07/1500z
$$
forecaster berg/brown
000
acca62 tjsj 070613
twospn
Perspectivas sobre las condiciones del tiempo en el tropico
nws tpc/centro nacional de huracanes miami fl
200 am edt martes 7 de septiembre de 2010
Para el atlantico norte. El mar caribe y el golfo de mexico.
El centro nacional de huracanes esta emitiendo advertencias sobre la
tormenta tropical hermine. Localizada cerca de 10 millas al sur
sureste de harlingen texas.
Aguaceros y algunas tronadas desorganizadas sobre las islas de
sotavento y las aguas adyacentes estan asociadas con los remanentes
de gaston. La circulacion continua pobremente desorganizada y el
ambiente que rodea el sistema debera ser solo marginalmente
conducente para su desarrollo durante los proximos dias. Por lo
tanto. Existe una probabilidad baja. 20 por ciento. De que este
sistema se convierta en ciclon tropical nuevamente durante las
proximas 48 horas.
Un pequeno area de baja presion localizada como a 300 millas al
oeste de las islas de cabo verde del norte esta produciendo
aguaceros desorganizados y tronadas. Se espera que las condiciones
ambientales no favorezcan el desarrollo de este sistema durante los
proximos dias mientras se mueva al oeste a cerca de 10 mph. Existe
una probabilidad baja. 10 por ciento. De que este sistema se
convierta en ciclon tropical durante las proximas 48 horas.
Unamplio area de nubes y tronadas localizados entre las islas de
cabo verde y la costa oeste de africa estan asociado con una onda
tropical. El desarrollo de este sistema. De ocurir alguno. Debera
ser lento mientras se mueva al oeste de 10 a 15 mph. Existe una
probabilidad baja. 10 por ciento. De que este sistema se convierta
en ciclon tropical durante las proximas 48 horas.
En el resto del area. No se espera formacion de ciclon tropical
durante las proximas 48 horas.
$$
Pronosticadores brown
Traduccion cortesia de la oficina del servicio nacional de
meteorologia en san juan puerto rico
000
abnt20 knhc 070558
twoat
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
200 am edt tue sep 7 2010
For the north atlantic. Caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico.
The national hurricane center is issuing advisories on tropical
storm hermine. Located about 10 miles south-southwest of
harlingen texas.
Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms over the leeward
islands and adjacent waters are associated with the remnants of
gaston. The circulation remains poorly defined and the environment
surrounding the system is expected to be only marginally conducive
for development during the next couple of days. Therefore. There
is a low chance. 20 percent. Of this system becoming a tropical
cyclone again during the next 48 hours.
A small low pressure area located about 300 miles west of the
northernmost cape verde islands is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to remain
unfavorable for development during the next couple of days as this
system moves westward at about 10 mph. There is a low chance. 10
percent. Of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours.
A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located between the
cape verde islands and the west coast of africa is associated with
a tropical wave. Development. If any. Of this system is expected
to be slow to occur as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph during the
next couple of days. There is a low chance. 10 percent. Of this
system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Elsewhere. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.
$$
forecaster brown
000
axnt20 knhc 070557
twdat
Tropical weather discussion
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
205 am edt tue sep 07 2010
Tropical weather discussion for north america. Central
america. Gulf of mexico. Caribbean sea. Northern sections of
south america. And atlantic ocean to the african coast from the
equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery. Meteorological analysis. Weather observations. And
radar.
Based on 0000 utc surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0445 utc.
. Special features.
Tropical storm hermine is centered near 26. 1n 97. 7w at 07/0600
utc or about 9 nm s-sw of harlingen texas and about 17 nm s of
brownsville texas moving n-nw at 12 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50
kt with gust to 60 kt. Please see latest nhc intermediate public
advisory under awips/wmo headers miatcpat5/wtnt35 knhc and the
full forecast/advisory under awips/wmo headers miatcmat5/wtnt25
knhc for more details. Data from the noaa doppler radar in
brownsville texas indicated that tropical storm hermine made
landfall around 830 pm cdt. 0130 utc. Along the coast of ne
mexico about 35 nm s of brownsville texas. Maximum sustained
winds at landfall were estimated to be 56 kt. Heavy rain with
embedded isolated thunderstorms are inland from laguna madre
mexico to just s of galveston texas. Scattered showers/isolated
thunderstorms cover the gulf waters from 22n-28n w of 94w.
. Tropical waves.
Tropical wave is along 19w/20w s of 16n moving w near 15 kt.
Wave is embedded within a moisture maximum as indicated on the
total precipitable water imagery. Wave is less organized now
that it has emerged into the e atlc. Numerous strong convection
is within 45 nm of 14. 5n between 18w-22w. Scattered moderate/
isolated strong convection covers the remainder of the area from
12n-16n between 20w-24w. Clusters of scattered moderate
convection are from 5n-8n between 30w-44w.
. Itcz.
The monsoon trough extends from 11n23w to 9n30w while the itcz
axis continues to south america near 9n61w. Small clusters of
scattered moderate/isolated strong convection are within 60 nm
either side of the itcz from 53w-59w. Scattered moderate/strong
convection is from 15n-20n e of 19w to inland over w africa.
Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 11n-13n e of
13w to the coast of w africa.
. Discussion.
Gulf of mexico.
The primary concern tonight remains t. S. Hermine that made
landfall earlier this evening. See special features above.
Broad upper ridge anchored over t. S. Hermine covers much of the
gulf waters drawing dry stable air s over the gulf e of hermine.
A narrow upper level trough extends s along the eastern seaboard
to over the florida peninsula to near 15n84w in the e gulf
generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms s of 26n to
cuba e of 84w across the florida peninsula into the w atlc and
the florida straits. This scenario is leaving the remainder of
the e gulf under clear skies tonight.
Caribbean sea.
The upper ridge that covers most the gulf of mexico covers the w
caribbean with ne to e flow aloft w of 77w. An upper ridge
anchored in the central atlc covers the e caribbean e of 73w.
The area between these upper ridges is dominated by an
elongated. Narrowing upper low centered over cuba extending s
to 16n77w. This upper low is supporting a surface trough
analyzed from 17n74w through the windward passage near 20n74w
into the w atlc and generating scattered showers/isolated
thunderstorms from over cuba to over the turks and caicos. An
inverted upper level trough extends along 80w from over panama
to 13n generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms s of
14n w of 80w. Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms are over
the leeward and virgin islands n of 14n w of puerto rico
compliments of the 1008 mb low. Remnants of gaston located
about 150 nm e of the leeward islands.
Atlantic ocean.
A narrow upper level trough extends s along the eastern seaboard
to over the florida peninsula to near 15n84w in the e gulf of
mexico generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms s of
28n w of 77w to over florida and through the florida straits.
Isolated showers are n of 28n w of 75w. The upper low centered
over cuba near 21n76w extends over the w atlc within 150 nm of
the axis along 24n73w 29n72w supporting a surface trough
analyzed from 25n74w through the wind passage into the caribbean
near 20n74w generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms
within 75 nm of line from 24n73w across the turks and caicos to
over cuba near 21n76w. The remainder of the atlc e of 40w is
dominated by a broad upper ridge anchored near 24n52w with
strong subsidence/dry stable air. However. Beneath this upper
ridge is a 1008 mb low. Remnants of gaston. Centered about 150
nm e of antigua and barbuda in the leeward islands near 17n59w
generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms from 14n-18n
w of 59w to over the leeward/virgin islands. A surface ridge
dominates most of the atlc n of 25n e of 70w anchored by a 1027
mb high well n of the discussion area. A second upper ridge is
anchored w africa extending an axis w into the e tropical atlc
along 21n to 38w. Beneath is a surface trough that extends from
21n29w to 16n31w with scattered moderate/isolated strong
convection within 75 nm of 17. 5n between 30w-33w.
For additional information please visit
http://www. Hurricanes. Gov/marine
$$
paw
000
wtnt35 knhc 070554
tcpat5
bulletin
tropical storm hermine intermediate advisory number 5a
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al102010
100 am cdt tue sep 07 2010
. Center of hermine crosses the rio grande. Sustained tropical
storm force winds occurring over portions of deep south texas.
Summary of 100 am cdt. 0600 utc. Information
----------------------------------------------
location. 26. 1n 97. 7w
about 10 mi. 15 km ssw of harlingen texas
about 20 mi. 30 km nw of brownsville texas
maximum sustained winds. 60 mph. 95 km/hr
present movement. Nnw or 330 degrees at 14 mph. 22 km/hr
minimum central pressure. 991 mb. 29. 26 inches
Watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory.
The government of mexico has discontinued the tropical storm warning
south of rio san fernando mexico.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for.
* Rio san fernando mexico northward to port oconnor texas
For storm information specific to your area in the united
states. Including possible inland watches and warnings. Please
monitor products issued by your local national weather service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the united states. Please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 100 am cdt. 0600 utc. The center of tropical storm hermine was
located near latitude 26. 1 north. Longitude 97. 7 west. Hermine is
moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph. 22 km/hr. A gradual
turn toward the north and northeast is expected over the next
couple of days. On the forecast track. Hermine will continue to
move inland over southern texas today and into central texas early
on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph. 95 km/hr. With higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast. And hermine is expected to become a
tropical depression by this afternoon.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles. 165
km. Mainly to the northeast of the center. Sustained tropical
storm force winds have been reported over portions of deep south
texas. Very recently. A sustained wind of 54 mph. 87 km/hr. And
a peak gust of 69 mph. 111 km/hr. Were reported at harlingen
texas within the past hour. A sustained wind of 45 mph. 72
km/hr. And a peak gust of 69 mph. 111 km/hr. Were also reported
at the brownsville/south padre island international airport.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. 29. 26 inches.
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area
and are expected to continue through this morning.
Storm surge. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to
4 feet above ground level along the immediate coast of deep south
texas.
Rainfall. Hermine is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over northeastern mexico. And from southern texas
northward into north central texas. With isolated maximum amounts
of 12 inches possible. These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods.
Tornadoes. Isolated tornadoes are possible along the lower and
middle texas coast through this morning.
Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory. 400 am cdt.
$$
forecaster berg/brown
000
acpn50 phfo 070553
twocp
Tropical weather outlook
nws central pacific hurricane center honolulu hi
800 pm hst mon sep 6 2010
For the central north pacific. Between 140w and 180
1. Showers and isolated thunderstorms persist along a west-southwest
to east-northeast oriented trough around 850 miles southeast of
hilo. Hawaii. The trough has been nearly stationary. A couple of
vortices. Or weak circulations. Embedded within the trough have
shown no signs of increasing organization. There is a low
chance. 10 percent. Of a tropical cyclone forming in this area
during the next 48 hours.
Elsewhere. No tropical cyclones are expected through Wednesday
evening.
$$
Kinel
000
abpz20 knhc 070532
twoep
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
1100 pm pdt mon sep 6 2010
For the eastern north pacific. East of 140 degrees west longitude.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
$$
forecaster brown
000
axpz20 knhc 070331
twdep
Tropical weather discussion
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
0405 utc tue sep 07 2010
Tropical weather discussion for the eastern pacific ocean from
the equator to 32n. East of 140w.
Based on 0000 utc surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 utc.
. Itcz.
Axis from from axis 13n110w to 09n127w to 13n137 to 12n140w.
Isolated moderate convection within 30 nm of axis from 110w-116w.
. Discussion.
Broad upper level anticyclone at 22n127w with ridge extending sw
maintains dry stable air mass n of 15n w of 113w with help from
small cyclone over central baja california. Weak anticyclone
over central mexico enhances outflow from tropical storm hermine
now moving inland from bay of campeche. Large well anchored
anticyclone over gulf of mexico advects abundant tropical
moisture into deep tropicas in e pac. Fortunately. Very little
mechanical uplift to cause significant deep convection. Itcz
fairly quiet and monsoonal trough carries only isolated moderate
convection.
At the surface.
Broad ridge extends se from strong high pres 1032 mb well n of
basin. Tight pres gradient forcing gale winds n of 30n along
california coast. But moderate to fresh breeze seep n of 27n w
of 120w and moderate n swells.
Monsoonal sw to w flow in midst of basin weakening and expected
to reach below 20 kt late in forecast period.
Weak low pres w of area drift further away and diminish winds e
of 140w within 12 hrs.
$$
wally barnes
000
wtca45 tjsj 070319
tcpsp5
Boletin
tormenta tropical hermine advertencia numero 5
nws tpc/centro nacional de huracanes miami fl al102010
1000 pm cdt lunes 6 de septiembre de 2010
. Hermine se mueve sobre tierra como una tormenta tropical fuerte.
Produciendo juertes lluvias sobre el noreste de mexico y el sur de
texas.
Resumen de la 10:00 pm cdt. 0300 utc. Informacion
----------------------------------------------
localizacion. 25. 5 norte 97. 5 oeste
cerca de 30 millas. 45 kilometros al sur de brownsville
cerca de 120 millas. 190 kilometros al norte de la pesca mexico
vientos maximos sostenidos. 60 mph. 95 kilometros por hora
movimiento actual. Noroeste o 330 grados a 14 mph. 22 kilometros
por hora
presion minima central. 991 milibaras. 29. 26 pulgadas
Vigilancias y avisos
--------------------
cambios con esta advertencia.
El gobierno de mexico ha descontinuado la vigilancia de huracan para
la costa de mexico y el aviso de tormenta tropical para el sur de
bahia algodones mexico.
La vigilancia de huracan ha sido descontinuado para la costa de
texas.
Resumen de los avisos y vigilancias en efecto.
Un aviso de tormenta tropical esta en efecto para.
* Bahia algodones mexio hacia el norte hasta port oconnor texas.
Para informacion especifica para su area en los estados unidos.
Incluyendo vigilancias o avisos sobre tierra. Favor estar atentos a
los productos emitidos por su oficina local del servicio nacional de
meteorologia. Para informacion especifica para su area fuera de los
estados unidos. Favor de monitorear los productos emitidos por su
oficina del servicio meteorologico nacional.
Discusion y perspectivas para las proximas 48 horas
------------------------------
a la 10:00 pm cdt. 0300 utc. El centro de la tormenta tropical
hermine estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 25. 5 norte. Longitud
97. 5 oeste. Hermine esta moviendose hacia el nor noroeste a cerca de
14 millas por hora. 22 kilometros por hora. Y se espera un giro
gradual hacia el norte y noreste durante el proximo dia o dos. En la
trayectoria pronosticada se espera que hermine continuara moviendose
tierra adentro sobre elnoreste de mexico esta noche. Y que se mueva
sobre el sur de texas el martes y hacia el centro de texas temprano
en el miercoles.
Los vientos maximos sostenidos han disminuido a cerca de 60 mph. 95
kilometros por hora. Con rafagas mas fuertes. Se prnostica alguna
debilitamiento adicional y se espera que hermine podria convertirse
en depresion tropical para la tarde del martes.
Los vientos de tormenta tropical se extienden hasta 105 millas. 165
kilometros al este del centro. Una estacion de observaciones del
servicio oceanico nacional en malaquite beach texas recientemente
reporto un viento sostenido de 41 mph. 66 km/hr. Y una rafaga
maxima de 47 mph. 76 km/hr.
Se estima la presion minima central es de 991 milibaras. 29. 26
pulgadas.
Peligros afectando tierra
----------------------
viento. Condiciones de tormenta tropical estan ocurriendo en el
area bajo aviso y se esperan que continuen esta noche.
Marejada ciclonica. La marejada aumentara los niveles del mar tanto
como de 2 a 4 pies sobre el nivel de tierra a lo largo de la costa
inmediata cerca y al norte de donde entraria el centro de la
tormenta sobre tierra.
Lluvia. Se espera que hermine genere acumulaciones de lluvia de 4 a
8 pulgadas sobre el noreste de mexico y desde el sur hacia el norte
central de texas con cantidades maximas aisladas de 12 pulgadas
posibles. Estas cantidades de lluvia pueden causar inundaciones
repentias y deslizamientos de lodo que amenazaran vida.
Tornados. Tornados aislados son posibles a lo largo de la costa
baja y media de texas esta noche hasta la manana del martes.
Proximas advertencias
-------------
proxima advertencia intermedia. 100 am cdt.
Proxima advertencia completa. 400 am cdt.
$$
Pronosticadores blake/brennan
Traduccion cortesia de la oficina del servicio nacional de
meteorologia en san juan puerto rico
000
wtnt35 knhc 070233
tcpat5
bulletin
tropical storm hermine advisory number 5
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al102010
1000 pm cdt mon sep 06 2010
. Hermine made landfall as a strong tropical storm. Producing
heavy rains over northeastern mexico and south texas.
Summary of 1000 pm cdt. 0300 utc. Information
-----------------------------------------------
location. 25. 5n 97. 5w
about 30 mi. 45 km s of brownsville texas
about 120 mi. 190 km n of la pesca mexico
maximum sustained winds. 60 mph. 95 km/hr
present movement. Nnw or 330 degrees at 14 mph. 22 km/hr
minimum central pressure. 991 mb. 29. 26 inches
Watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory.
The government of mexico has discontinued the hurricane watch for
the coast of mexico and the tropical storm warning south of bahia
algodones mexico.
The hurricane watch for the coast of texas has been discontinued.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for.
* Bahia algodones mexico northward to port oconnor texas
For storm information specific to your area in the united states
. Including possible inland watches and warnings. Please monitor
products issued by your local national weather service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
united states. Please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 1000 pm cdt. 0300 utc. The center of tropical storm hermine was
located near latitude 25. 5 north. Longitude 97. 5 west. Hermine is
moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph. 22 km/hr. A gradual
turn toward the north and northeast is expected over the next
couple of days. On the forecast track. Hermine will continue to
move inland over northeastern mexico tonight. And move into
southern texas on Tuesday and into central texas early on
Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph. 95 km/hr
. With higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast and hermine
is expected to weaken into a tropical depression by Tuesday
afternoon.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles. 165
km. Mainly to the northeast of the center. A national ocean service
observing site in malaquite beach texas recently reported a
sustained wind of 41 mph. 66 km/hr. And a peak gust to 47 mph.
76 km/hr.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. 29. 26 inches.
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area
and are expected to continue overnight.
Storm surge. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to
4 feet above ground level along the immediate coast near and to the
north of where the center makes landfall.
Rainfall. Hermine is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over northeastern mexico. And from southern into
north central texas with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches
possible. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods.
Tornadoes. Isolated tornadoes are possible along the lower and
middle texas coast through Tuesday morning.
Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory. 100 am cdt.
Next complete advisory. 400 am cdt.
$$
forecaster blake/brennan
000
wtnt25 knhc 070231
tcmat5
tropical storm hermine forecast/advisory number 5
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al102010
0300 utc tue sep 07 2010
Changes in watches and warnings with this advisory.
The government of mexico has discontinued the hurricane watch for
the coast of mexico and the tropical storm warning south of bahia
algodones mexico.
The hurricane watch for the coast of texas has been discontinued.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for.
* Bahia algodones mexico northward to port oconnor texas
Tropical storm center located near 25. 5n 97. 5w at 07/0300z
position accurate within 20 nm
Present movement toward the north-northwest or 330 degrees at 12 kt
Estimated minimum central pressure 991 mb
max sustained winds 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.
50 kt. 20ne 20se 0sw 0nw.
34 kt. 90ne 60se 20sw 30nw.
12 ft seas. 150ne 90se 0sw 0nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat. Center located near 25. 5n 97. 5w at 07/0300z
at 07/0000z center was located near 24. 9n 97. 2w
Forecast valid 07/1200z 27. 1n 98. 6w. Inland
max wind 40 kt. Gusts 50 kt.
34 kt. 75ne 50se 0sw 0nw.
Forecast valid 08/0000z 29. 5n 99. 8w. Inland
max wind 30 kt. Gusts 40 kt.
Forecast valid 08/1200z 32. 1n 100. 2w. Post-trop/remnt low
max wind 25 kt. Gusts 35 kt.
Forecast valid 09/0000z 34. 7n 99. 5w. Post-trop/remnt low
max wind 25 kt. Gusts 35 kt.
Forecast valid 10/0000z 39. 5n 95. 0w. Post-trop/remnt low
max wind 20 kt. Gusts 25 kt.
Extended outlook. Note. Errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5. And for intensity near 20 kt each day
Outlook valid 11/0000z. Dissipated
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 25. 5n 97. 5w
Next advisory at 07/0900z
$$
forecaster blake/brennan
000
axnt20 knhc 070027 cca
twdat
Tropical weather discussion
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
805 pm edt mon sep 06 2010
Tropical weather discussion for north america. Central
america. Gulf of mexico. Caribbean sea. Northern sections of
south america. And atlantic ocean to the african coast from the
equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery. Meteorological analysis. Weather observations. And
radar.
Based on 1800 utc surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 utc.
. Special features.
Tropical storm hermine is centered near 24. 8n 97. 1w at 07/0000
utc or about 80 mi. 130 km nne of la pesca mexico. Or about
80 mi. 130 km sse of brownsville texas. Moving nnw at 13 kt.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gust to 65 kt. Please see
latest nhc intermediate public advisory under awips/wmo headers
miatcpat5/wtnt35 knhc and the full forecast/advisory under
awips/wmo headers miatcmat5/wtnt25 knhc for more details.
Numerous strong convection is from 23n-25n between 95w-98w. In
addition scattered moderate convection is from 22n-28n between
94w-99w. Although this system will be inland over northeastern
mexico or extreme southern texas by tonight. Computer models
suggest the convection associated to this system will linger
over the nw gulf through at least Thursday.
A 1008 mb low. Remnant of gaston. Is about 250 nm e of the
northern lesser antilles near 17n57w moving w near 10 kt.
Satellite imagery indicates a low level swirl remains with
scattered moderate convection from 16n-18n between 58w-60w.
Upper level winds and moisture are marginally conducive for
development over the next day or so. There is a medium chance of
this system becoming a tropical cyclone again during the next 48
hours. Heavy rains and gusty winds will begin to affect
portions of the leeward islands tonight.
. Tropical waves.
A tropical wave is along 18w s of 18n moving west 10-15 kt.
Satellite derived winds indicate broad cyclonic turning around
the wave axis. This wave is also embedded in a surge of deep
level moisture as noted on total precipitable water imagery.
Numerous strong convection is over the northern portion of the
wave from 16n-18n between 15w-19w. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 7n-15n between 18w-24w.
. Itcz.
A monsoon trough is s of 20n e of 40w to w africa. An itcz axis
continues westward from 9n40w to 10n60w. Besides the convection
mentioned in the tropical wave section. Isolated moderate
convection is from 7n-10n between 52w-55w.
. Discussion.
Gulf of mexico.
T. S. Hermine is in the process of making landfall over the ne
mexican coast with a good amount of convection. See the special
features section above. Widely scattered moderate convection is
also n of the storm along the texas coast n of 28n w of 93w.
Elsewhere. Widely scattered moderate convection is over central
and south florida. The straits of florida. And w cuba s of
27n. In the upper levels. An upper level high is centered over
the w gulf enhancing convection. Considerable upper level
moisture and high clouds covers the gulf except over the ne gulf
n of 27n where strong subsidence is noted. Expect. Convection
to persist over the same general areas for the next 24 hours.
Caribbean sea.
A rather lax surface pressure gradient is over the caribbean sea
thus tradewinds are mostly 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is over the n caribbean over jamaica and cuba between
75w-85w. Similar convection is inland over central america from
panama to guatemala. In the upper levels. The e caribbean has
southerly flow e of 67w, an upper level low is centered e cuba
near 20n74w moving w. The w caribbean w of 80w has ne upper
level flow. Expect. The remnants of gaston to traverse the
leeward islands over the next 24 hours with convection.
Atlantic ocean.
A 1026 mb high is centered over the central atlantic near
39n40w. A ridge axis extends se to the w atlantic near 28n75w.
Elsewhere. A weak surface trough is over the southern bahamas
along 26n72w 20n73w. Scattered showers are within 30 nm of the
trough. Another trough is w of the cape verde islands along
22n27w 16n30w. Isolated moderate convection is within 60 nm w of
the trough. Of note in the upper levels an upper level high is
centered over the central atlantic near 25n50w with strong
subsidence. Another upper level high is centered over w africa
near 21n16w.
For additional information please visit
http://www. Hurricanes. Gov/marine
$$
formosa
000
acca62 tjsj 070019
twospn
Perspectivas sobre las condiciones del tiempo en el tropico
nws tpc/centro nacional de huracanes miami fl
800 pm edt lunes 6 de septiembre de 2010
Para el atlantico norte. El mar caribe y el golfo de mexico.
El centro nacional de huracanes esta emitiendo advertencias sobre la
tormenta tropical hermine. Localizada cerca de 80 millas al sur
sureste de brownsville texas.
Multiples reportes de aviones de reconocimiento indican que la
circulacion asociada con los remanentes de gaston permanece
pobremente definida. Y las condiciones ambientales circundantes
estan solo marginalmente favorables para desarrollo durante los
proximos dias. Por lo tanto. Existe una probabilidad mediana. 50
por ciento. De que este sistema se convierta en ciclon tropical
nuevamente durante las proximas 48 horas. Sin importar su
desarrollo. Este sistema puede producir aguaceros fuertes y vientos
en rafagas hasta con fuerza de tormenta tropical en turbonadas
mientras se mueve sobre las islas de sotavento esta noche y el
martes.
En el resto del area. No se espera formacion de ciclon tropical
durante las proximas 48 horas.
$$
Advertencias publicas sobre hermine estan siendos emitidas con el
titulo del wmo wtnt35 knhc y bajo el titulo en awips miatcpat5.
Pronosticos y advertencias sobre hermine estan siendos emitidos con
el titulo del wmo header wtnt25 knhc y bajo el titulo en awips
header miatcmat5.
Pronosticadores roberts/brennan
Traduccion cortesia de la oficina del servicio nacional de
meteorologia en san juan puerto rico
000
wtca45 tjsj 070008
tcpsp5
Boletin
tormenta tropical hermine advertencia intermedia numero 4a
nws tpc/centro nacional de huracanes miami fl al102010
700 pm cdt lunes 6 de septiembre de 2010
. Hermine fortaleciendose mientras se acerca a la costa.
Resumen de la 7:00 pm cdt. 0000 utc. Informacion
----------------------------------------------
localizacion. 24. 8 norte 97. 1 oeste
cerca de 80 millas. 130 kilometros al nor noreste de la pesca mexico
cerca de 80 millas. 130 kilometros al sur sureste de brownsville
texas
vientos maximos sostenidos. 65 mph. 100 kilometros por hora
movimiento actual. Noroeste o 325 grados a 14 mph. 22 kilometros
por hora
presion minima central. 991 milibaras. 29. 26 pulgadas
Vigilancias y avisos
--------------------
cambios con esta advertencia.
Ninguno.
Resumen de los avisos y vigilancias en efecto.
Una vigilancia de huracan esta en efecto para.
* Rio fernando mexico hacia el norte hasta la bahia baffin texas.
Un aviso de tormenta tropical esta en efecto para.
* La cruz mexio hacia el norte hasta port oconnor texas.
Una vigilancia de huracan significa que condiciones de huracan son
posibles dentro del aviso. En este caso dentro de 24 horas.
Un aviso de tormenta tropical significa que las condiciones de
tormenta tropical son anticipadas en algun lugar dentro del
aviso. En este caso dentro de 24 horas.
Para informacion especifica para su area en los estados unidos.
Incluyendo vigilancias o avisos sobre tierra. Favor estar atentos a
los productos emitidos por su oficina local del servicio nacional de
meteorologia. Para informacion especifica para su area fuera de los
estados unidos. Favor de monitorear los productos emitidos por su
oficina del servicio meteorologico nacional.
Discusion y perspectivas para las proximas 48 horas
------------------------------
a la 7:00 pm cdt. 0000 utc. El centro de la tormenta tropical
hermine estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 24. 8 norte. Longitud
97. 1 oeste. Hermine esta moviendose hacia el noroeste a cerca de 14
millas por hora. 22 kilometros por hora. Y se espera que este
movimiento general continue durante el proximo dia o dos. En la
trayectoria pronosticada se espera que el centro de hermine entre a
tierra sobre la costa del noreste de mexico en el area bajo aviso
esta noche. Y que se mueva sobre el sur de texas el martes y hacia
el centro de texas el miercoles.
Data de un avion caza huracanes de la reserva de la fuerza aerea
indica que los vientos maximos sostenidos han aumentado a cerca de
65 mph. 100 kilometros por hora. Con rafagas mas fuertes. Alguna
intensificacion es posible. Y hermine podria alcanzar intensidad de
huracan antes de que entre a tierra.
Los vientos de tormenta tropical se extienden hasta 105 millas. 165
kilometros al este del centro.
Estimados de la presion minima central reportados por el avion caza
huracanes es de 991 milibaras. 29. 26 pulgadas.
Peligros afectando tierra
----------------------
viento. Condiciones de tormenta tropical estan ocurriendo en el
area bajo aviso y se esperan que continuen avanzada la noche.
Marejada ciclonica. La marejada aumentara los niveles del mar tanto
como de 2 a 4 pies sobre el nivel de tierra a lo largo de la costa
inmediata cerca y al norte de donde entraria el centro de la
tormenta sobre tierra.
Lluvia. Se espera que hermine genere acumulaciones de lluvia de 4 a
8 pulgadas sobre el noreste de mexico y el sur de texas con
cantidades maximas aisladas de 12 pulgadas posibles. Estas
cantidades de lluvia pueden causar inundaciones repentias y
deslizamientos de lodo que amenazaran vida.
Tornados. Tornados aislados son posibles a lo largo de la costa
baja y media de texas comenzando esta noche. Y continuando avanzada
la noche.
Proximas advertencias
-------------
proxima advertencia completa. 10:00 pm cdt.
$$
Pronosticadores blake/brennan
Traduccion cortesia de la oficina del servicio nacional de
meteorologia en san juan puerto rico
000
axnt20 knhc 070002
twdat
Tropical weather discussion
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
805 pm edt mon sep 06 2010
Tropical weather discussion for north america. Central
america. Gulf of mexico. Caribbean sea. Northern sections of
south america. And atlantic ocean to the african coast from the
equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery. Meteorological analysis. Weather observations. And
radar.
Based on 1800 utc surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 utc.
. Special features.
Tropical storm hermine is centered near 24. 8n 97. 1w at 07/0000
utc or about 80 mi. 130 km nne of la pesca mexico. Or about
80 mi. 130 km sse of brownsville texas. Moving nnw at 13 kt.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gust to 65 kt. Please see
latest nhc intermediate public advisory under awips/wmo headers
miatcpat5/wtnt35 knhc and the full forecast/advisory under
awips/wmo headers miatcmat5/wtnt25 knhc for more details.
Numerous strong convection is from 23n-25n between 95w-98w. In
addition scattered moderate convection is from 22n-28n between
94w-99w. Although this system will be inland over northeastern
mexico or extreme southern texas by tonight. Computer models
suggest the convection associated to this system will linger
over the nw gulf through at least Thursday.
A 1008 mb low. Remnant of gaston. Is about 250 nm e of the
northern lesser antilles near 17n57w moving w near 10 kt.
Satellite imagery indicates a low level swirl remains with
scattered moderate convection from 16n-18n between 58w-60w.
Upper level winds are expected to become more conducive for
development over the next day or so and the moisture surrounding
the low should gradually increase as it moves w at 10-15 kt.
There is a high chance of this system becoming a tropical
cyclone again during the next 48 hours. Heavy rains and gusty
winds could begin to affect portions of the leeward islands
tonight. Interests in those islands should monitor the progress
of this system.
. Tropical waves.
A tropical wave is along 18w s of 18n moving west 10-15 kt.
Satellite derived winds indicate broad cyclonic turning around
the wave axis. This wave is also embedded in a surge of deep
level moisture as noted on total precipitable water imagery.
Numerous strong convection is over the northern portion of the
wave from 16n-18n between 15w-19w. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 7n-15n between 18w-24w.
. Itcz.
A monsoon trough is s of 20n e of 40w to w africa. An itcz axis
continues westward from 9n40w to 10n60w. Besides the convection
mentioned in the tropical wave section. Isolated moderate
convection is from 7n-10n between 52w-55w.
. Discussion.
Gulf of mexico.
T. S. Hermine is in the process of making landfall over the ne
mexican coast with a good amount of convection. See the special
features section above. Widely scattered moderate convection is
also n of the storm along the texas coast n of 28n w of 93w.
Elsewhere. Widely scattered moderate convection is over central
and south florida. The straits of florida. And w cuba s of
27n. In the upper levels. An upper level high is centered over
the w gulf enhancing convection. Considerable upper level
moisture and high clouds covers the gulf except over the ne gulf
n of 27n where strong subsidence is noted. Expect. Convection
to persist over the same general areas for the next 24 hours.
Caribbean sea.
A rather lax surface pressure gradient is over the caribbean sea
thus tradewinds are mostly 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is over the n caribbean over jamaica and cuba between
75w-85w. Similar convection is inland over central america from
panama to guatemala. In the upper levels. The e caribbean has
southerly flow e of 67w, an upper level low is centered e cuba
near 20n74w moving w. The w caribbean w of 80w has ne upper
level flow. Expect. The remnants of gaston to traverse the
leeward islands over the next 24 hours with convection.
Atlantic ocean.
A 1026 mb high is centered over the central atlantic near
39n40w. A ridge axis extends se to the w atlantic near 28n75w.
Elsewhere. A weak surface trough is over the southern bahamas
along 26n72w 20n73w. Scattered showers are within 30 nm of the
trough. Another trough is w of the cape verde islands along
22n27w 16n30w. Isolated moderate convection is within 60 nm w of
the trough. Of note in the upper levels an upper level high is
centered over the central atlantic near 25n50w with strong
subsidence. Another upper level high is centered over w africa
near 21n16w.
For additional information please visit
http://www. Hurricanes. Gov/marine
$$
formosa
000
abnt20 knhc 062346
twoat
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
800 pm edt mon sep 6 2010
For the north atlantic. Caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico.
The national hurricane center is issuing advisories on tropical
storm hermine. Located about 80 miles south-southeast of
brownsville texas.
Multiple aircraft reconnaissance reports indicate that the surface
circulation associated with the remnants of gaston remains poorly
defined. And that the surrounding environment is only marginally
conducive for development during the next couple of days.
Therefore. There is a medium chance. 50 percent. Of this system
becoming a tropical cyclone again during the next 48 hours.
Regardless of development. This system is capable of producing
heavy showers and wind gusts to tropical storm force in squalls as
it moves over the leeward islands tonight and Tuesday.
Elsewhere. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.
Public advisories on hermine are issued under wmo header wtnt35 knhc
and under awips header miatcpat5. Forecast/advisories on hermine
are issued under wmo header wtnt25 knhc and under awips header
miatcmat5.
$$
forecaster roberts/brennan
000
wtnt35 knhc 062345
tcpat5
bulletin
tropical storm hermine intermediate advisory number 4a
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al102010
700 pm cdt mon sep 06 2010
. Hermine strengthening as it nears the coast.
Summary of 700 pm cdt. 0000 utc. Information
----------------------------------------------
location. 24. 8n 97. 1w
about 80 mi. 130 km nne of la pesca mexico
about 80 mi. 130 km sse of brownsville texas
maximum sustained winds. 65 mph. 100 km/hr
present movement. Nw or 325 degrees at 14 mph. 22 km/hr
minimum central pressure. 991 mb. 29. 26 inches
Watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory.
None.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect.
A hurricane watch is in effect for.
* Rio san fernando mexico northward to baffin bay texas
A tropical storm warning is in effect for.
* La cruz mexico northward to port oconnor texas
For storm information specific to your area in the united states
. Including possible inland watches and warnings. Please monitor
products issued by your local national weather service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
united states. Please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 700 pm cdt. 0000 utc. The center of tropical storm hermine was
located near latitude 24. 8 north. Longitude 97. 1 west. Hermine is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph. 22 km/hr. And this
general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. On
the forecast track the center will make landfall on the coast of
northeastern mexico in the warning area tonight. And move inland
over southern texas on Tuesday and into central texas on Wednesday.
Data from an air force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph. 100
km/hr. With higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
possible. And hermine could approach hurricane strength prior to
landfall.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles. 165 km
from the center.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by an air force reserve
hurricane hunter is 991 mb. 29. 26 inches.
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area
and are expected to continue overnight.
Storm surge. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to
4 feet above ground level along the immediate coast near and to the
north of where the center makes landfall.
Rainfall. Hermine is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over northeastern mexico and south texas with isolated
maximum amounts of 12 inches possible. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash flood and mudslides.
Tornadoes. Isolated tornadoes are possible along the lower and
middle texas coast this evening. And continuing overnight.
Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory. 1000 pm cdt.
$$
forecaster blake/brennan
000
acpn50 phfo 062345
twocp
Tropical weather outlook
nws central pacific hurricane center honolulu hi
200 pm hst mon sep 6 2010
For the central north pacific. Between 140w and 180
No tropical cyclones are expected through Wednesday afternoon.
$$
000
abpz20 knhc 062333
twoep
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
500 pm pdt mon sep 6 2010
For the eastern north pacific. East of 140 degrees west longitude.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
$$
forecaster brennan
000
axpz20 knhc 062124
twdep
Tropical weather discussion
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
2205 utc mon sep 06 2010
Tropical weather discussion for the eastern pacific ocean from
the equator to 32n. East of 140w.
Based on 1800 utc surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 utc.
. Itcz.
Axis from from 08n80w to 13n90w then resumes at 12n115w to
13n110w to 09n127w to 13n137. No significant convection.
. Discussion.
Aloft. A large upper level anticyclone centered near 23n125w
with ridge extending sw to 18n140w prevails across the forecast
area n of 13n and west of 120w. A shortwave trough is east of
this upper anticyclone n of 15n. Water vapor imagery indicates
very dry upper level conditions prevail in the far ne part of
the area. Elsewhere. Ne upper level flow prevails over the deep
tropics. This flow is advecting upper level moisture from
tropical storm hermine and central america sw over the deep
tropics.
Surface. High pres ridge extends se from a strong high pressure
1033 mb centered near 42n151w se to 23n120w. There is a tight
pressure gradient between this high pressure center and low
pressure over the sw u. S. That is supporting northerly gale
force winds off the coast of california. The gale force winds
have generated northerly swells which will affect the northern
part of the area with seas to 11 ft expected by tomorrow
afternoon.
$$
al
000
wtca45 tjsj 062103
tcpsp5
Boletin
tormenta tropical hermine advertencia numero 4
nws tpc/centro nacional de huracanes miami fl al102010
400 pm cdt lunes 6 de septiembre de 2010
. Hermine cerca de la costa. Debe de tocar tierra esta noche.
Resumen de la 4:00 pm cdt. 2100 utc. Informacion
----------------------------------------------
localizacion. 24. 5 norte 97. 0 oeste
cerca de 70 millas. 110 kilometros al noreste de la pesca mexico
cerca de 100 millas. 165 kilometros al sur sureste de brownsville
texas
vientos maximos sostenidos. 60 mph. 95 kilometros por hora
movimiento actual. Nor noroeste o 330 grados a 15 mph. 24 kilometros por
hora
presion minima central. 992 milibaras. 29. 29 pulgadas
Vigilancias y avisos
--------------------
cambios con esta advertencia.
Ninguno.
Resumen de los avisos y vigilancias en efecto.
Una vigilancia de huracan esta en efecto para.
* Rio fernando mexico hacia el norte hasta la bahia baffin texas.
Un aviso de tormenta tropical esta en efecto para.
* La cruz mexio hacia el norte hasta port oconnor texas.
Una vigilancia de huracan significa que condiciones de huracan son
posibles dentro del aviso. En este caso dentro de 24 horas.
Un aviso de tormenta tropical significa que las condiciones de
tormenta tropical son anticipadas en algun lugar dentro del
aviso. En este caso dentro de 24 horas.
Para informacion especifica para su area en los estados unidos.
Incluyendo vigilancias o avisos sobre tierra. Favor estar atentos a
los productos emitidos por su oficina local del servicio nacional de
meteorologia. Para informacion especifica para su area fuera de los
estados unidos. Favor de monitorear los productos emitidos por su
oficina del servicio meteorologico nacional.
Discusion y perspectivas para las proximas 48 horas
------------------------------
a la 4:00 pm cdt. 2100 utc. El centro de la tormenta tropical
hermine estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 24. 5 norte. Longitud
97. 0 oeste. Hermine esta moviendose hacia el nor noroeste a cerca de
15 millas por hora. 24 kilometros por hora. Y se espera que este
movimiento general continue durante el proximo dia o dos. En la
trayectoria pronosticada se espera que el centro de hermine entre a
tierra sobre la costa del noreste de mexico o el extremo sur de
texas en el area bajo aviso esta noche. Y que se mueva sobre el sur
de texas y hacia el centro de texas el miercoles.
Los vientos maximos sostenidos han aumentado a cerca de 60 mph. 95
kilometros por hora. Con rafagas mas fuertes. Alguna
intensificacion es posible. Y hermine podria alcanzar intensidad de
huracan antes de que entre a tierra.
Los vientos de tormenta tropical se extienden hasta 105 millas. 165
kilometros al este del centro.
Estimados de la presion minima central es de 992 milibaras. 29. 29
pulgadas.
Peligros afectando tierra
----------------------
viento. Condiciones de tormenta tropical son anticipadas para el
area avisada mas tarde hoy.
Marejada ciclonica. La marejada aumentara los niveles del mar tanto
como de 2 a 4 pies sobre el nivel de tierra a lo largo de la costa
inmediata cerca y al norte de donde entraria el centro de la
tormenta sobre tierra.
Lluvia. Se espera que hermine genere acumulaciones de lluvia de 4 a
8 pulgadas sobre el noreste de mexico y el sur de texas con
cantidades maximas aisladas de 12 pulgadas son posibles. Estas
cantidades de lluvia pueden causar inundaciones repentias y
deslizamientos de lodo que amenazaran vida.
Tornados. Tornados aislados son posibles a lo largo de la costa
baja y media de texas comenzando esta noche. Y continuando avanzada
la noche.
Proximas advertencias
-------------
proxima advertencia intermedia. 7:00 pm cdt.
Proxima advertencia completa. 10:00 pm cdt.
$$
Pronosticadores pasch/cangialosi
Traduccion cortesia de la oficina del servicio nacional de
meteorologia en san juan puerto rico
000
wtnt25 knhc 062037
tcmat5
tropical storm hermine forecast/advisory number 4
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al102010
2100 utc mon sep 06 2010
Changes in watches and warnings with this advisory.
None.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect.
A hurricane watch is in effect for.
* Rio san fernando mexico northward to baffin bay texas
A tropical storm warning is in effect for.
* La cruz mexico northward to port oconnor texas
A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. In this case within about 24 hours.
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area. In this case within
about 24 hours.
Tropical storm center located near 24. 5n 97. 0w at 06/2100z
position accurate within 20 nm
Present movement toward the north-northwest or 330 degrees at 13 kt
Estimated minimum central pressure 992 mb
max sustained winds 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.
50 kt. 30ne 30se 0sw 20nw.
34 kt. 90ne 90se 20sw 50nw.
12 ft seas. 150ne 90se 30sw 45nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat. Center located near 24. 5n 97. 0w at 06/2100z
at 06/1800z center was located near 24. 1n 96. 6w
Forecast valid 07/0600z 26. 2n 98. 3w. Inland
max wind 55 kt. Gusts 65 kt.
50 kt. 30ne 30se 0sw 0nw.
34 kt. 90ne 90se 0sw 50nw.
Forecast valid 07/1800z 28. 5n 99. 6w. Inland
max wind 30 kt. Gusts 40 kt.
Forecast valid 08/0600z 30. 7n 100. 4w. Inland
max wind 25 kt. Gusts 35 kt.
Forecast valid 08/1800z 33. 0n 100. 5w. Post-trop/remnt low
max wind 20 kt. Gusts 25 kt.
Forecast valid 09/1800z 38. 0n 98. 5w. Post-trop/remnt low
max wind 20 kt. Gusts 25 kt.
Extended outlook. Note. Errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5. And for intensity near 20 kt each day
Outlook valid 10/1800z. Dissipated
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 24. 5n 97. 0w
Next advisory at 07/0300z
$$
forecaster pasch/cangialosi
000
wtnt35 knhc 062037
tcpat5
bulletin
tropical storm hermine advisory number 4
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al102010
400 pm cdt mon sep 06 2010
. Hermine nearing the coast. Should make landfall tonight.
Summary of 400 pm cdt. 2100 utc. Information
----------------------------------------------
location. 24. 5n 97. 0w
about 70 mi. 110 km ne of la pesca mexico
about 100 mi. 165 km sse of brownsville texas
maximum sustained winds. 60 mph. 95 km/hr
present movement. Nnw or 330 degrees at 15 mph. 24 km/hr
minimum central pressure. 992 mb. 29. 29 inches
Watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory.
None.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect.
A hurricane watch is in effect for.
* Rio san fernando mexico northward to baffin bay texas
A tropical storm warning is in effect for.
* La cruz mexico northward to port oconnor texas
A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. In this case within about 24 hours.
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area. In this case within
about 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the united
states. Including possible inland watches and warnings. Please
monitor products issued by your local national weather service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the united states. Please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 400 pm cdt. 2100 utc. The center of tropical storm hermine was
located near latitude 24. 5 north. Longitude 97. 0 west. Hermine is
moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph. 24 km/hr. And this
general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. On
the forecast track the center will make landfall on the coast of
northeastern mexico or extreme southern texas in the warning area
tonight. And move inland over southern texas on Tuesday and into
central texas on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph. 95 km/hr. With higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible. And hermine could approach
hurricane strength prior to landfall.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles. 165 km
from the center.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by an air force reserve
hurricane hunter is 992 mb. 29. 29 inches.
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the warning
area later today.
Storm surge. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to
4 feet above ground level along the immediate coast near and to the
north of where the center makes landfall.
Rainfall. Hermine is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over northeastern mexico and south texas with isolated
maximum amounts of 12 inches possible. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash flood and mudslides.
Tornadoes. Isolated tornadoes are possible along the lower and
middle texas coast beginning this evening. And continuing
overnight.
Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory. 700 pm cdt.
Next complete advisory. 1000 pm cdt.
$$
forecaster pasch/cangialosi
000
axnt20 knhc 061755 cca
twdat
Tropical weather discussion. Updated
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
205 pm edt mon sep 06 2010
***** Updated to correct time *****
Tropical weather discussion for north america. Central
america. Gulf of mexico. Caribbean sea. Northern sections of
south america. And atlantic ocean to the african coast from the
equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery. Meteorological analysis. Weather observations. And
radar.
Based on 1200 utc surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 utc.
. Special features.
Tropical storm hermine is centered near 24. 1n 96. 5w at 06/1800
utc or about 85 mi ene of la pesca mexico and about 140 mi sse
of brownsville texas. Moving n at 7 kt. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50
kt with gust to 60 kt. Please see latest nhc intermediate public
advisory under awips/wmo headers miatcpat5/wtnt35 knhc and the
full forecast/advisory under awips/wmo headers miatcmat5/wtnt25
knhc for more details. Scattered/numerous strong convection
covers the western half of the gulf w of 90w. Although this
system will be inland over northeastern mexico or extreme
southern texas by late this evening. Computer models
suggest the convection associated to this system will linger
over the nw gulf through at least Thursday.
A 1008 mb low. Remnant of gaston. Is about 300 nm e of the
northern lesser antilles near 17n57w moving w near 10 kt.
Satellite imagery indicates a low level swirl remains with a
band of scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms within 60 nm of
line from just w of the low near 17n59w to 22n62w. Upper level
winds are expected to become more conducive for development over
the next day or so and the moisture surrounding the low should
gradually increase as it moves w at 10-15 kt. There is a high
chance of this system becoming a tropical cyclone again during
the next 48 hours. Heavy rains and gusty winds could begin to
affect portions of the leeward islands late today and tonight.
Interests in those islands should monitor the progress of this
system.
. Tropical waves.
A tropical wave just entered the far eastern atlantic tropical
basin. Analyzed along 15w s of 16n moving west 10-15 kt.
Satellite derived winds indicate broad cyclonic turning around
the wave axis. This wave is embedded in a surge of deep level
moisture as noted on total precipitable water imagery. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is between the coast of west
africa and 23w from 8n to 18n.
. Itcz.
A monsoonal trough extends from the coastal waters of w africa
near 8n17w continuing westward along 5n30w to 8n40w. Where the
itcz axis begins and continues westward along 9n50w to 8n60w.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is between the coast of
west africa and 23w from 8n to 18n. This area of convection is
also associated with a tropical wave along 15w s of 16n. Similar
convection is within 100 nm on either side of the monsoonal
trough. Scattered weak to isolated moderate convection is within
100 nm either side of the itcz.
. Discussion.
Gulf of mexico.
The primary focus this afternoon for the gulf of mexico is
tropical storm hermine producing convection to most of the
western half of the gulf w of 90w. See special features above
for more details. A longwave upper level trough is embedded in
the ridge entering the ne gulf noted by strong subsidence aloft
on water vapor imagery. While anti-cyclonic rotation aloft is
over the se basin indicated by satellite derived winds. This
upper level scenario is generating diffluent flow aloft over the
eastern gulf e of 85w supporting scattered. This scenario is
enhancing scattered moderate to isolated heavy showers in this
region. Computer models suggest that the upper level scenario
will continue to generate convection in the eastern gulf s of
27n e of 85w over the next 24 hrs. Including the florida
straits.
Caribbean sea.
Broad elongated upper level low centered over the southernmost
district of the bahamas. Great inagua island. Supports a
rather weak surface trough that enters the discussion area
through haiti along 18n73w to 17n73w with no associated
convection at the moment. However. Computer models indicate the
upper level low will continue to move west and the cyclonic flow
around it will interact with an longwave upper level trough over
the eastern sea board to produce diffluence aloft. Enhancing
convection over the nnw basin n of 18n w of 77w over the next 24
to 48 hours. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
over the sw basin s of 15n w of 75w. Associated with nearby
convergence in the vicinity of the monsoonal trough over the
far eastern pacific. Computer models suggest this area of
convection will linger in this region over the next 24 hrs.
Relatively dry/stable conditions is noted elsewhere across the
caribbean this afternoon. On a side note. The remnant low
pressure center of gaston will enter the far eastern caribbean
with convection over the next 24 hours affecting the lesser
antilles from 15n to puerto rico.
Atlantic ocean.
The 1008 mb remnant low of gaston remains a concern as it
continues to move toward the leeward islands. See special
features above for more details. Broad elongated upper level low
centered over the southernmost district of the bahamas. Great
inagua island. Supports a rather weak surface trough analyzed
along 25n71w 21n73w 17n73w enhancing scattered weak to moderate
convection within 70 nm on either side of the trough n of 20n. A
longwave upper level trough is moving off the eastern seaboard
and it`s interacting with the cyclonic flow aloft related to the
elongated upper level low to produce scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection to the far western atlc w of 76w
including the florida peninsula. This area of convection is
expected to linger in this region over the next 24 hrs. A
surface trough is over the eastern atlc extending from 22n27w to
15n30w generating scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection within 70 nm on either side of the axis. This system
will continue to move west with convection over the next 24
hours. Elsewhere across the discussion area. Broad mid/upper
level sub-tropical ridge dominates the atlc and supports the
surface 1027 mb high near 38n40w.
For additional information please visit
http://www. Hurricanes. Gov/marine
$$
Garcia
000
axnt20 knhc 061754
twdat
Tropical weather discussion
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
205 am edt mon sep 06 2010
Tropical weather discussion for north america. Central
america. Gulf of mexico. Caribbean sea. Northern sections of
south america. And atlantic ocean to the african coast from the
equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery. Meteorological analysis. Weather observations. And
radar.
Based on 1200 utc surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 utc.
. Special features.
Tropical storm hermine is centered near 24. 1n 96. 5w at 06/1800
utc or about 85 mi ene of la pesca mexico and about 140 mi sse
of brownsville texas. Moving n at 7 kt. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50
kt with gust to 60 kt. Please see latest nhc intermediate public
advisory under awips/wmo headers miatcpat5/wtnt35 knhc and the
full forecast/advisory under awips/wmo headers miatcmat5/wtnt25
knhc for more details. Scattered/numerous strong convection
covers the western half of the gulf w of 90w. Although this
system will be inland over northeastern mexico or extreme
southern texas by late this evening. Computer models
suggest the convection associated to this system will linger
over the nw gulf through at least Thursday.
A 1008 mb low. Remnant of gaston. Is about 300 nm e of the
northern lesser antilles near 17n57w moving w near 10 kt.
Satellite imagery indicates a low level swirl remains with a
band of scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms within 60 nm of
line from just w of the low near 17n59w to 22n62w. Upper level
winds are expected to become more conducive for development over
the next day or so and the moisture surrounding the low should
gradually increase as it moves w at 10-15 kt. There is a high
chance of this system becoming a tropical cyclone again during
the next 48 hours. Heavy rains and gusty winds could begin to
affect portions of the leeward islands late today and tonight.
Interests in those islands should monitor the progress of this
system.
. Tropical waves.
A tropical wave just entered the far eastern atlantic tropical
basin. Analyzed along 15w s of 16n moving west 10-15 kt.
Satellite derived winds indicate broad cyclonic turning around
the wave axis. This wave is embedded in a surge of deep level
moisture as noted on total precipitable water imagery. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is between the coast of west
africa and 23w from 8n to 18n.
. Itcz.
A monsoonal trough extends from the coastal waters of w africa
near 8n17w continuing westward along 5n30w to 8n40w. Where the
itcz axis begins and continues westward along 9n50w to 8n60w.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is between the coast of
west africa and 23w from 8n to 18n. This area of convection is
also associated with a tropical wave along 15w s of 16n. Similar
convection is within 100 nm on either side of the monsoonal
trough. Scattered weak to isolated moderate convection is within
100 nm either side of the itcz.
. Discussion.
Gulf of mexico.
The primary focus this afternoon for the gulf of mexico is
tropical storm hermine producing convection to most of the
western half of the gulf w of 90w. See special features above
for more details. A longwave upper level trough is embedded in
the ridge entering the ne gulf noted by strong subsidence aloft
on water vapor imagery. While anti-cyclonic rotation aloft is
over the se basin indicated by satellite derived winds. This
upper level scenario is generating diffluent flow aloft over the
eastern gulf e of 85w supporting scattered. This scenario is
enhancing scattered moderate to isolated heavy showers in this
region. Computer models suggest that the upper level scenario
will continue to generate convection in the eastern gulf s of
27n e of 85w over the next 24 hrs. Including the florida
straits.
Caribbean sea.
Broad elongated upper level low centered over the southernmost
district of the bahamas. Great inagua island. Supports a
rather weak surface trough that enters the discussion area
through haiti along 18n73w to 17n73w with no associated
convection at the moment. However. Computer models indicate the
upper level low will continue to move west and the cyclonic flow
around it will interact with an longwave upper level trough over
the eastern sea board to produce diffluence aloft. Enhancing
convection over the nnw basin n of 18n w of 77w over the next 24
to 48 hours. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
over the sw basin s of 15n w of 75w. Associated with nearby
convergence in the vicinity of the monsoonal trough over the
far eastern pacific. Computer models suggest this area of
convection will linger in this region over the next 24 hrs.
Relatively dry/stable conditions is noted elsewhere across the
caribbean this afternoon. On a side note. The remnant low
pressure center of gaston will enter the far eastern caribbean
with convection over the next 24 hours affecting the lesser
antilles from 15n to puerto rico.
Atlantic ocean.
The 1008 mb remnant low of gaston remains a concern as it
continues to move toward the leeward islands. See special
features above for more details. Broad elongated upper level low
centered over the southernmost district of the bahamas. Great
inagua island. Supports a rather weak surface trough analyzed
along 25n71w 21n73w 17n73w enhancing scattered weak to moderate
convection within 70 nm on either side of the trough n of 20n. A
longwave upper level trough is moving off the eastern seaboard
and it`s interacting with the cyclonic flow aloft related to the
elongated upper level low to produce scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection to the far western atlc w of 76w
including the florida peninsula. This area of convection is
expected to linger in this region over the next 24 hrs. A
surface trough is over the eastern atlc extending from 22n27w to
15n30w generating scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection within 70 nm on either side of the axis. This system
will continue to move west with convection over the next 24
hours. Elsewhere across the discussion area. Broad mid/upper
level sub-tropical ridge dominates the atlc and supports the
surface 1027 mb high near 38n40w.
For additional information please visit
http://www. Hurricanes. Gov/marine
$$
Garcia
000
acpn50 phfo 061752
twocp
Tropical weather outlook
nws central pacific hurricane center honolulu hi
800 am hst mon sep 6 2010
For the central north pacific. Between 140w and 180
No tropical cyclones are expected through Wednesday morning.
$$
000
acca62 tjsj 061745
twospn
Perspectivas sobre las condiciones del tiempo en el tropico
nws tpc/centro nacional de huracanes miami fl
200 pm edt lunes 6 de septiembre de 2010
Para el atlantico norte. El mar caribe y el golfo de mexico.
El centro nacional de huracanes esta emitiendo advertencias sobre la
tormenta tropical hermine. Localizada cerca de 140 millas al sur
sureste de brownsville texas.
Nubosidad y aguaceros siguen desorganizados en asociacion con los
remanentes de la baja presion de gaston. Localizado como a 300
millas al este de las islas de sotavento del norte. Se espera que
las condiciones ambientales se tornen mas conducivas para desarrollo
durante los proximos dias mientras el sistema se mueve hacia el
oeste a cerca de 15 a 20 mph. Existe una probabilidad alta. 70 por
ciento. De que este sistema se convierta en ciclon tropical
nuevamente durante las proximas 48 horas. Aguaceros fuertes y
vientos en rafagas pueden comenzar a afectar porciones de las islas
de sotavento mas tarde hoy y esta noche. Y los interesados en esas
islas deben monitorear el progreso de este sistema.
En el resto del area. No se espera formacion de ciclon tropical
durante las proximas 48 horas.
$$
Advertencias publicas sobre hermine estan siendos emitidas con el
titulo del wmo wtnt35 knhc y bajo el titulo en awips miatcpat5.
Pronosticos y advertencias sobre hermine estan siendos emitidos con
el titulo del wmo header wtnt25 knhc y bajo el titulo en awips header
miatcmat5.
Pronosticadores cangialosi/pasch
Traduccion cortesia de la oficina del servicio nacional de
meteorologia en san juan puerto rico
000
wtca45 tjsj 061741
tcpsp5
Boletin
tormenta tropical hermine advertencia intermedia numero 3a
nws tpc/centro nacional de huracanes miami fl al102010
100 pm cdt lunes 6 de septiembre de 2010
. Hermine se fortalece un poco mas mientras se dirige hacia el
oeste de la costa del golfo.
Resumen de la 1:00 pm cdt. 1800 utc. Informacion
----------------------------------------------
localizacion. 24. 1 norte 96. 5 oeste
cerca de 85 millas. 135 kilometros al este noreste de la pesca mexico
cerca de 140 millas. 225 kilometros al sur sureste de brownsville
texas
vientos maximos sostenidos. 60 mph. 95 kilometros por hora
movimiento actual. Nor noroeste o 335 grados a 14 mph. 22 kilometros por
hora
presion minima central. 995 milibaras. 29. 38 pulgadas
Vigilancias y avisos
--------------------
cambios con esta advertencia.
Ninguno.
Resumen de los avisos y vigilancias en efecto.
Una vigilancia de huracan esta en efecto para.
* Rio fernando mexico hacia el norte hasta la bahia baffin texas.
Un aviso de tormenta tropical esta en efecto para.
* La cruz mexio hacia el norte hasta port oconnor texas.
Una vigilancia de huracan significa que condiciones de huracan son
posibles dentro del aviso. En este caso dentro de 24 horas.
Un aviso de tormenta tropical significa que las condiciones de
tormenta tropical son anticipadas en algun lugar dentro del
aviso. En este caso dentro de 24 horas.
Para informacion especifica para su area en los estados unidos.
Incluyendo vigilancias o avisos sobre tierra. Favor estar atentos a
los productos emitidos por su oficina local del servicio nacional de
meteorologia. Para informacion especifica para su area fuera de los
estados unidos. Favor de monitorear los productos emitidos por su
oficina del servicio meteorologico nacional.
Discusion y perspectivas para las proximas 48 horas
------------------------------
a la 1:00 pm cdt. 1800 utc. El centro de la tormenta tropical
hermine estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 24. 1 norte. Longitud
96. 5 oeste. Hermine esta moviendose hacia el nor noroeste a cerca de
14 millas por hora. 22 kilometros por hora. Y se espera que este
movimiento general continue durante el proximo dia o dos. En la
trayectoria pronosticada. Se espera que el centro de hermine se
acerque a la costa del noreste de mexico o el extremo sur de texas
en el area bajo aviso esta noche.
Los vientos maximos sostenidos han aumentado a cerca de 60 mph. 95
kilometros por hora. Con rafagas mas fuertes. Alguna
intensificacion es anticipada y hermine podria alcanzar intensidad
de huracan antes de que entre a tierra.
Los vientos de tormenta tropical se extienden hasta 105 millas. 165
kilometros al este del centro.
Estimados de la presion minima central es de 995 milibaras. 29. 38
pulgadas.
Peligros afectando tierra
----------------------
viento. Condiciones de tormenta tropical son anticipadas para el
area avisada mas tarde en el dia de hoy.
Marejada ciclonica. La marejada aumentara los niveles del mar tanto
como de 2 a 4 pies sobre el nivel de tierra a lo largo de la costa
inmediata cerca y al norte de donde entraria el centro de la
tormenta sobre tierra.
Lluvia. Se anticipan acumulaciones de lluvia de 4 a 8 pulgadas con
sobre el noreste de mexico y el sur de texas con maximos aislados de
hasta 12 pulgadas posibles. Estas cantidades de lluvia pueden causar
inundaciones repentias y deslizamientos de lodo que amenazaran vida.
Proximas advertencias
-------------
proxima advertencia completa. 4:00 pm cdt.
$$
Pronosticadores pasch/cangialosi
Traduccion cortesia de la oficina del servicio nacional de
meteorologia en san juan puerto rico
000
wtca45 tjsj 061741
tcpsp5
Boletin
tormenta tropical hermine advertencia intermedia numero 3a
nws tpc/centro nacional de huracanes miami fl al102010
100 pm cdt lunes 6 de septiembre de 2010
. Hermine se fortalece un poco mas mientras se dirige hacia el
oeste de la costa del golfo.
Resumen de la 1:00 pm cdt. 1800 utc. Informacion
----------------------------------------------
localizacion. 24. 1 norte 96. 5 oeste
cerca de 85 millas. 135 kilometros al este noreste de la pesca mexico
cerca de 140 millas. 225 kilometros al sur sureste de brownsville
texas
vientos maximos sostenidos. 60 mph. 95 kilometros por hora
movimiento actual. Nor noroeste o 335 grados a 14 mph. 22 kilometros por
hora
presion minima central. 995 milibaras. 29. 38 pulgadas
Vigilancias y avisos
--------------------
cambios con esta advertencia.
Ninguno.
Resumen de los avisos y vigilancias en efecto.
Una vigilancia de huracan esta en efecto para.
* Rio fernando mexico hacia el norte hasta la bahia baffin texas.
Un aviso de tormenta tropical esta en efecto para.
* La cruz mexio hacia el norte hasta port oconnor texas.
Una vigilancia de huracan significa que condiciones de huracan son
posibles dentro del aviso. En este caso dentro de 24 horas.
Un aviso de tormenta tropical significa que las condiciones de
tormenta tropical son anticipadas en algun lugar dentro del
aviso. En este caso dentro de 24 horas.
Para informacion especifica para su area en los estados unidos.
Incluyendo vigilancias o avisos sobre tierra. Favor estar atentos a
los productos emitidos por su oficina local del servicio nacional de
meteorologia. Para informacion especifica para su area fuera de los
estados unidos. Favor de monitorear los productos emitidos por su
oficina del servicio meteorologico nacional.
Discusion y perspectivas para las proximas 48 horas
------------------------------
a la 1:00 pm cdt. 1800 utc. El centro de la tormenta tropical
hermine estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 24. 1 norte. Longitud
96. 5 oeste. Hermine esta moviendose hacia el nor noroeste a cerca de
14 millas por hora. 22 kilometros por hora. Y se espera que este
movimiento general continue durante el proximo dia o dos. En la
trayectoria pronosticada. Se espera que el centro de hermine se
acerque a la costa del noreste de mexico o el extremo sur de texas
en el area bajo aviso esta noche.
Los vientos maximos sostenidos han aumentado a cerca de 60 mph. 95
kilometros por hora. Con rafagas mas fuertes. Alguna
intensificacion es anticipada y hermine podria alcanzar intensidad
de huracan antes de que entre a tierra.
Los vientos de tormenta tropical se extienden hasta 105 millas. 165
kilometros al este del centro.
Estimados de la presion minima central es de 995 milibaras. 29. 38
pulgadas.
Peligros afectando tierra
----------------------
viento. Condiciones de tormenta tropical son anticipadas para el
area avisada mas tarde en el dia de hoy.
Marejada ciclonica. La marejada aumentara los niveles del mar tanto
como de 2 a 4 pies sobre el nivel de tierra a lo largo de la costa
inmediata cerca y al norte de donde entraria el centro de la
tormenta sobre tierra.
Lluvia. Se anticipan acumulaciones de lluvia de 4 a 8 pulgadas con
sobre el noreste de mexico y el sur de texas con maximos aislados de
hasta 12 pulgadas posibles. Estas cantidades de lluvia pueden causar
inundaciones repentias y deslizamientos de lodo que amenazaran vida.
Proximas advertencias
-------------
proxima advertencia completa. 4:00 pm cdt.
$$
Pronosticadores pasch/cangialosi
Traduccion cortesia de la oficina del servicio nacional de
meteorologia en san juan puerto rico
000
abnt20 knhc 061735
twoat
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
200 pm edt mon sep 6 2010
For the north atlantic. Caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico.
The national hurricane center is issuing advisories on tropical
storm hermine. Located about 140 miles south-southeast of
brownsville texas.
Cloudiness and showers remain disorganized in association with the
remnant low of gaston. Located about 300 miles east of the
northern leeward islands. Environmental conditions are expected to
become more conducive for development over the next couple of days
as the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. There is a high
chance. 70 percent. Of this system becoming a tropical cyclone
again during the next 48 hours. Heavy showers and wind gusts to
tropical storm force in squalls should begin to affect portions of
the leeward islands later today and tonight. And interests in
these islands should continue to monitor the progress of this
system.
Elsewhere. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.
Public advisories on hermine are issued under wmo header wtnt35 knhc
and under awips header miatcpat5. Forecast/advisories on hermine
are issued under wmo header wtnt25 knhc and under awips header
miatcmat5.
$$
forecaster cangialosi/pasch
000
abpz20 knhc 061735
twoep
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
1100 am pdt mon sep 6 2010
For the eastern north pacific. East of 140 degrees west longitude.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
$$
forecaster cangialosi
000
wtnt35 knhc 061732
tcpat5
bulletin
tropical storm hermine intermediate advisory number 3a
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al102010
100 pm cdt mon sep 06 2010
. Hermine strengthens a little more as it heads for the western
gulf coast.
Summary of 100 pm cdt. 1800 utc. Information
----------------------------------------------
location. 24. 1n 96. 5w
about 85 mi. 135 km ene of la pesca mexico
about 140 mi. 225 km sse of brownsville texas
maximum sustained winds. 60 mph. 95 km/hr
present movement. Nnw or 335 degrees at 14 mph. 22 km/hr
minimum central pressure. 995 mb. 29. 38 inches
Watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory.
None.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect.
A hurricane watch is in effect for.
* Rio san fernando mexico northward to baffin bay texas
A tropical storm warning is in effect for.
* La cruz mexico northward to port oconnor texas
A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. In this case within about 24 hours.
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area. In this case within
about 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the united
states. Including possible inland watches and warnings. Please
monitor products issued by your local national weather service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the united states. Please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 100 pm cdt. 1800 utc. The center of tropical storm hermine was
located near latitude 24. 1 north. Longitude 96. 5 west. Hermine is
moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph. 22 km/hr. And this
general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. On
the forecast track. The center of hermine is expected to approach
the coast of northeastern mexico or extreme southern texas in the
warning area tonight.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph. 95
km/hr. With higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast
and hermine could approach hurricane strength prior to landfall.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles. 165 km
from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. 29. 38 inches.
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the warning
area later today.
Storm surge. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to
4 feet above ground level along the immediate coast near and to the
north of where the center makes landfall.
Rainfall. Hermine is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over northeastern mexico and south texas with isolated
maximum amounts of 12 inches possible. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash flood and mudslides.
Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory. 400 pm cdt.
$$
forecaster pasch/cangialosi
000
wtca45 tjsj 061638
tcpsp5
Boletin
tormenta tropical hermine advertencia numero 3
nws tpc/centro nacional de huracanes miami fl al102010
1000 am cdt lunes 6 de septiembre de 2010
. Hermine se fortalece un poco mas. Se emiten nuevos avisos y
vigilancias.
Resumen de las 1000 am cdt. 1500 utc. Informacion
----------------------------------------------
localizacion. 23. 4 norte 95. 8 oeste
cerca de 130 millas. 210 kilometros al este sureste de la pesca mexico
cerca de 205 millas. 325 kilometros al sur sureste de brownsville
texas
vientos maximos sostenidos. 50 mph. 85 kilometros por hora
movimiento actual. Nor noroeste o 340 grados a 13 mph. 20 kilometros por
hora
presion minima central. 998 milibaras. 29. 47 pulgadas
Vigilancias y avisos
--------------------
cambios con esta advertencia.
El gobierno de mexico ha emitido una vigilancia de huracan desde rio
san fernando hacia el norte hasta la desembocadura del rio
grande. Y una vigilancia de huracan ha sido emitida desde la
desembocadura del rio grande hacia el norte hasta la bahia baffin
texas.
El aviso de tormenta tropical ha sido extendido hacia el norte hasta
port oconnor.
El gobierno de mexico ha descontinuado el aviso de tormenta tropical
al sur de la cruz.
Resumen de los avisos y vigilancias en efecto.
Una vigilancia de huracan esta en efecto para.
* Rio fernando mexico hacia el norte hasta la bahia baffin texas.
Un aviso de tormenta tropical esta en efecto para.
* La cruz mexio hacia el norte hasta port oconnor texas.
Una vigilancia de huracan significa que condiciones de huracan son
posibles dentro del aviso. En este caso dentro de 24 horas.
Un aviso de tormenta tropical significa que las condiciones de
tormenta tropical son anticipadas en algun lugar dentro del
aviso. En este caso dentro de 24 horas.
Para informacion especifica para su area en los estados unidos.
Incluyendo vigilancias o avisos sobre tierra. Favor estar atentos a
los productos emitidos por su oficina local del servicio nacional de
meteorologia. Para informacion especifica para su area fuera de los
estados unidos. Favor de monitorear los productos emitidos por su
oficina del servicio meteorologico nacional.
Discusion y perspectivas para las proximas 48 horas
------------------------------
a las 10:00 am cdt. 1500 utc. El centro de la tormenta tropical
hermine estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 23. 4 norte. Longitud
95. 8 oeste. Hermine esta moviendose hacia el nor noroeste a cerca de
13 millas por hora. 20 kilometros por hora. Y se espera que este
movimiento general continua durante el proximo dia o dos. En la
trayectoria pronosticada. Se espera que el centro de hermine se
acerque a la costa del noreste de mexico o el extremo sur de texas
en el area bajo aviso esta noche.
Los vientos maximos sostenidos han aumentado a cerca de 50 mph. 85
kilometros por hora. Con rafagas mas fuertes. Alguna
intensificacion es anticipada y hermine podria alcanzar intensidad
de huracan antes de que entre a tierra.
Los vientos de tormenta tropical se extienden hasta 105 millas. 165
kilometros al este del centro.
Estimados de la presion minima central es de 998 milibaras. 29. 47
pulgadas.
Peligros afectando tierra
----------------------
viento. Condiciones de tormenta tropical son anticipadas para el
area avisada mas tarde en el dia de hoy.
Marejada ciclonica. La marejada aumentara los niveles del mar tanto
como de 2 a 4 pies sobre el nivel de tierra a lo largo de la costa
inmediata cerca y al norte de donde entraria el centro de la
tormenta sobre tierra.
Lluvia. Se anticipan acumulaciones de lluvia de 4 a 8 pulgadas con
sobre el noreste de mexico y el sur de texas con maximos aislados de
hasta 12 pulgadas posibles. Estas cantidades de lluvia pueden causar
inundaciones repentias y deslizamientos de lodo que amenazaran vida.
Proximas advertencias
-------------
proxima advertencia intermedia. 100 pm cdt.
Proxima advertencia completa. 400 pm cdt.
$$
Pronosticadores pasch/cangialosi
Traduccion cortesia de la oficina del servicio nacional de
meteorologia en san juan puerto rico
000
axpz20 knhc 061517
twdep
Tropical weather discussion
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
1605 utc mon sep 06 2010
Tropical weather discussion for the eastern pacific ocean from
the equator to 32n. East of 140w.
Based on 1200 utc surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 utc.
. Itcz.
Axis from from 08n78w to 13n90w then resumes at 12n112w to
13n110w to 08n130w to 12n140w. Scattered moderate convection
from 10n to 12n between 89w and 91w. No significant convection
elsewhere.
. Discussion.
Aloft. A large upper level anticyclone is centered near 24n125w
with ridge extending sw to 18n140w. Ne upper level flow prevails
over the deep tropics. This flow is advecting upper level
moisture from itcz convection and tropical storm hermine sw over
the deep tropics.
Surface.
High pres ridge extends se from a strong high pressure centered
near 41n150w se to 27n124w. There is a tight pressure gradient
between this high pressure center and low pressure over the sw
u. S. That is supporting northerly gale force winds off the coast
of california. The gale force winds have generated northerly
swells which will propagate into the northern part of the area
with seas to 11 ft are expected by tomorrow afternoon.
$$
al
000
wtnt25 knhc 061431
tcmat5
tropical storm hermine forecast/advisory number 3
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al102010
1500 utc mon sep 06 2010
Changes in watches and warnings with this advisory.
The government of mexico has issued a hurricane watch from rio san
fernando northward to the mouth of the rio grande. And a hurricane
watch has been issued from the mouth of the rio grande northward to
baffin bay texas.
The tropical storm warning has been extended northward to port
oconnor.
The government of mexico has discontinued the tropical storm warning
south of la cruz.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect.
A hurricane watch is in effect for.
* Rio san fernando mexico northward to baffin bay texas
A tropical storm warning is in effect for.
* La cruz mexico northward to port oconnor texas
A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. In this case within about 24 hours.
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area. In this case within
about 24 hours.
Tropical storm center located near 23. 4n 95. 8w at 06/1500z
position accurate within 30 nm
Present movement toward the north-northwest or 340 degrees at 11 kt
Estimated minimum central pressure 998 mb
max sustained winds 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.
34 kt. 90ne 90se 0sw 30nw.
12 ft seas. 150ne 60se 0sw 30nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat. Center located near 23. 4n 95. 8w at 06/1500z
at 06/1200z center was located near 22. 6n 95. 4w
Forecast valid 07/0000z 24. 9n 96. 9w
max wind 60 kt. Gusts 75 kt.
50 kt. 30ne 30se 0sw 0nw.
34 kt. 90ne 90se 0sw 30nw.
Forecast valid 07/1200z 27. 0n 98. 3w. Inland
max wind 55 kt. Gusts 65 kt.
50 kt. 25ne 25se 0sw 0nw.
34 kt. 40ne 40se 0sw 0nw.
Forecast valid 08/0000z 29. 1n 99. 6w. Inland
max wind 30 kt. Gusts 40 kt.
Forecast valid 08/1200z 31. 4n 100. 4w. Post-trop/remnt low
max wind 25 kt. Gusts 35 kt.
Forecast valid 09/1200z 36. 0n 99. 0w. Post-trop/remnt low
max wind 20 kt. Gusts 25 kt.
Extended outlook. Note. Errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5. And for intensity near 20 kt each day
Outlook valid 10/1200z. Dissipated
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 23. 4n 95. 8w
Next advisory at 06/2100z
$$
forecaster pasch/cangialosi
000
wtnt35 knhc 061431
tcpat5
bulletin
tropical storm hermine advisory number 3
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al102010
1000 am cdt mon sep 06 2010
. Hermine strengthens a little more. New watches and warnings
issued.
Summary of 1000 am cdt. 1500 utc. Information
-----------------------------------------------
location. 23. 4n 95. 8w
about 130 mi. 210 km ese of la pesca mexico
about 205 mi. 325 km sse of brownsville texas
maximum sustained winds. 50 mph. 85 km/hr
present movement. Nnw or 340 degrees at 13 mph. 20 km/hr
minimum central pressure. 998 mb. 29. 47 inches
Watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory.
The government of mexico has issued a hurricane watch from rio san
fernando northward to the mouth of the rio grande. And a hurricane
watch has been issued from the mouth of the rio grande northward to
baffin bay texas.
The tropical storm warning has been extended northward to port
oconnor.
The government of mexico has discontinued the tropical storm warning
south of la cruz.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect.
A hurricane watch is in effect for.
* Rio san fernando mexico northward to baffin bay texas
A tropical storm warning is in effect for.
* La cruz mexico northward to port oconnor texas
A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. In this case within about 24 hours.
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area. In this case within
about 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the united
states. Including possible inland watches and warnings. Please
monitor products issued by your local national weather service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the united states. Please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 1000 am cdt. 1500 utc. The center of tropical storm hermine was
located near latitude 23. 4 north. Longitude 95. 8 west. Hermine is
moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. 20 km/hr. And this
general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. On
the forecast track. The center of hermine is expected to approach
the coast of northeastern mexico or extreme southern texas in the
warning area tonight.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph. 85
km/hr. With higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast
and hermine could approach hurricane strength prior to landfall.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles. 165 km
from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. 29. 47 inches.
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the warning
area later today.
Storm surge. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to
4 feet above ground level along the immediate coast near and to the
north of where the center makes landfall.
Rainfall. Hermine is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over northeastern mexico and south texas with isolated
maximum amounts of 12 inches possible. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash flood and mudslides.
Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory. 100 pm cdt.
Next complete advisory. 400 pm cdt.
$$
forecaster pasch/cangialosi
000
acca62 tjsj 061215
twospn
Perspectivas sobre las condiciones del tiempo en el tropico
nws tpc/centro nacional de huracanes miami fl
800 am ast lunes 6 de septiembre de 2010
Para el atlantico norte. El mar caribe y el golfo de mexico.
El centro nacional de huracanes esta emitiendo advertencias para la
recien actualizada tormenta tropical hermine. Localizada cerca de
280 millas al sur sureste de brownsville texas.
Aguaceros y tronadas se han tornado menos organizados durante las
pasadas horas en asociacion con los remanentes de la baja presion de
gaston. Localizado como a 400 millas al este de las islas de
sotavento del norte. Se espera que las condiciones ambientales se
tornen mas conducivas para desarrollo durante el proximo dia o dos
mientras el sistema se mueve hacia el oeste a cerca de 15 mph.
Existe una probabilidad alta. 70 por ciento. De que este sistema
se convierta en ciclon tropical nuevamente durante las proximas 48
horas. Aguaceros fuertes y vientos en rafagas pueden comenzar a
afectar porciones de las islas de sotavento mas tarde hoy y esta
noche. Y los interesados en esas islas deben monitorear el progreso
de este sistema.
En el resto del area. No se espera formacion de ciclon tropical
durante las proximas 48 horas.
$$
Advertencias publicas sobre hermine estan siendos emitidas con el
titulo del wmo wtnt35 knhc y bajo el titulo en awips miatcpat5.
Pronosticos y advertencias sobre hermine estan siendos emitidos con
el titulo del wmo header wtnt25 knhc y bajo el titulo en awips header
miatcmat5.
Pronosticadores cangialosi/pasch
Traduccion cortesia de la oficina del servicio nacional de
meteorologia en san juan puerto rico
000
wtca45 tjsj 061200
tcpsp5
Boletin
tormenta tropical hermine advertencia intermedia numero 2a
nws tpc/centro nacional de huracanes miami fl al102010
700 am cdt lunes 6 de septiembre de 2010
. Un poco mas fuerte hermine mientras se mueve hacia el norte.
Resumen de las 700 am cdt. 1200 utc. Informacion
----------------------------------------------
localizacion. 22. 4 norte 95. 3 oeste
cerca de 185 millas. 300 kilometros al este sureste de tampico mexico
cerca de 280 millas. 450 kilometros al sur sureste de brownsville
texas
vientos maximos sostenidos. 45 mph. 75 kilometros por hora
movimiento actual. Norte o 350 grados a 10 mph. 17 kilometros por
hora
presion minima central. 999 milibaras. 29. 50 pulgadas
Vigilancias y avisos
--------------------
cambios con esta advertencia.
Ninguno.
Resumen de los avisos y vigilancias en efecto.
Un aviso de tormenta tropical esta en efecto para.
* La costa de mexico desde tampico a la boca del rio grande
* La costa sur de texas desde la boca del rio grande hasta baffin
bay.
Vigilancias o avisos adicionales podrian ser requeridos para
porciones del sur de texas mas tarde hoy.
Un aviso de tormenta tropical significa que las condiciones de
tormenta tropical son anticipadas en algun lugar dentro del
aviso. En este caso dentro de 24 horas.
Para informacion especifica para su area en los estados unidos.
Incluyendo vigilancias o avisos sobre tierra. Favor estar atentos a
los productos emitidos por su oficina local del servicio nacional de
meteorologia. Para informacion especifica para su area fuera de los
estados unidos. Favor de monitorear los productos emitidos por su
oficina del servicio meteorologico nacional.
Discusion y perspectivas para las proximas 48 horas
------------------------------
a las 7:00 am cdt. 1200 utc. El centro de la tormenta tropical
hermine estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 22. 4 norte. Longitud
95. 3 oeste. Hermine esta moviendose hacia el norte a 10 millas por
hora. 17 kilometros por hora. Un giro al noroeste con un aumento en
la velocidad de traslacion son anticipados hoy. En la trayectoria
pronosticada. Se espera que el centro de hermine se acerque a la
costa del noreste de mexico o el extremo sur de texas en el area del
aviso temprano el martes en la manana.
Los vientos maximos sostenidos han aumentado a cerca de 45 mph. 75
kilometros por hora. Con rafagas mas fuertes. Alguna
intensificacion es anticipada antes de que afecte a tierra.
Los vientos de tormenta tropical se extienden hasta 105 millas. 165
kilometros al este del centro.
Estimados de la presion minima central es de 999 milibaras. 29. 50
pulgadas.
Peligros afectando tierra
----------------------
viento. Condiciones de tormenta tropical son anticipadas para el
area avisada esta noche.
Marejada ciclonica. La marejada aumentara los niveles del mar tanto
como de uno a 2 pies sobre el nivel de tierra a lo largo de la costa
inmediata cerca y al norte de donde entraria el centro de la
tormenta sobre tierra.
Lluvia. Se anticipan acumulaciones de lluvia de 4 a 8 pulgadas con
sobre el noreste de mexico y el sur de texas con maximos aislados de
hasta 12 pulgadas posibles. Estas cantidades de lluvia pueden causar
inundaciones repentias y deslizamientos de lodo que amenazaran
vida. Especialmente en el terreno mas alto del noreste de mexico.
Proximas advertencias
-------------
proxima advertencia completa. 1000 am cdt.
$$
Pronosticadores pasch/cangialosi
Traduccion cortesia de la oficina del servicio nacional de
meteorologia en san juan puerto rico
000
axnt20 knhc 061152
twdat
Tropical weather discussion
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
805 am edt mon sep 06 2010
Tropical weather discussion for north america. Central
america. Gulf of mexico. Caribbean sea. Northern sections of
south america. And atlantic ocean to the african coast from the
equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery. Meteorological analysis. Weather observations. And
radar.
Based on 0600 utc surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 utc.
. Special features.
Tropical depression ten was upgraded at 06/0900 utc to tropical
storm. Tropical storm hermine is centered near 22. 4n 95. 3w at
06/0900 utc or about 185 nm e-se of tampico mexico and about 280
mi sse of brownsville texas moving n at 7 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40
kt with gust to 50 kt. Please see latest nhc intermediate public
advisory under awips/wmo headers miatcpat5/wtnt35 knhc and the
full forecast/advisory under awips/wmo headers miatcmat5/wtnt25
knhc for more details. Scattered/numerous strong convection is
within 90/120 nm of line from 25n94w to 21n96w with scattered
moderate/isolated strong convection covering the remainder of
the area s of 25w to inland over mexico between 92w-97w.
A 1008 mb low. Remnant of gaston. Is about 400 nm e of the
lesser antilles near 17n54w moving w near 10 kt. Satellite
imagery indicates a low level swirl remains with a band of
scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms within 60/75 nm of line
from just w of the low near 17n55w to 22n60w. Upper level winds
are expected to become more conducive for development over the
next day or so and the moisture surrounding the low should
gradually increase as it moves w at 10-15 kt. There is a high
chance of this system becoming a tropical cyclone again during
the next 48 hours. Heavy rains and gusty winds could begin to
affect portions of the leeward islands late today and tonight.
Interests in those islands should monitor the progress of this
system.
. Tropical waves.
Tropical wave remains inland over w africa along 14w moving w
near 10 kt. A weak 1012 mb low is along the wave axis near 10n.
. Itcz.
Itcz axis extends along 11n16w 6n31w 9n43w 9n51w 8n62w.
Scattered moderate/strong convection is along the coast of w
africa within 90/120 nm of line from 11n16w to 19n20w. Clusters
of scattered moderate convection are within 150 nm of the itcz
axis e of 56w to inland over w africa.
. Discussion.
Gulf of mexico.
The primary concern this morning is the newly formed t. S.
Hermine in the sw gulf. See special features above. An upper
level trough covers the e half of the u. S. And into the n gulf
to 28n supporting a weak. Meandering stationary front that
extends across s georgia along the n gulf coast between panama
city florida and slidell louisiana across to near lake charles.
An upper ridge is anchored near t. S. Hermine extending an axis
e-ne across the gulf waters and s florida to over the far w atlc
providing diffluence aloft to enhance scattered showers/isolated
thunderstorms within 120 nm of line from the texas coast near
corpus christi to across florida near tampa. Similar activity is
over the se gulf s of 25n e of 87w to over the florida keys.
Caribbean sea.
The upper ridge over the gulf of mexico covers the nw caribbean
with e flow aloft mainly n of 17n w of 77w. An upper ridge
anchored in the central atlc covers the e caribbean e of 66w.
The remainder of the caribbean is dominated by an upper low
centered between cuba and the turks/caicos near 21n72w. This
upper low is supporting a surface trough analyzed from 15n72w
across hispaniola near 20n71w into the w atlc. The upper low is
generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms n of 16n
into the w atlc between 71w-78w. At the base of the upper low
there are clusters of scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms
sw of line from colombia near 11n74w to 17b84w to inland over
central america. This scenario is leaving the remainder of the
caribbean tranquil this morning with the e half of the caribbean
under remarkably clear skies.
Atlantic ocean.
The 1008 mb remnant low of gaston remains a concern as it
continues to move toward the leeward islands. See special
features above. The upper ridge that covers the gulf of mexico
extends into the far w atlc w of 77w. This upper ridge is
providing diffluence aloft to enhance scattered showers/
thunderstorms n of 23n w of 74w to the coast of the se u. S. And
n of 30n w of bermuda. The upper low over the central caribbean
is centered just n of the dominican republic near 21n72w and
covers the remainder of the w atlc s of 30n between 66w-77w
supporting a surface trough analyzed from 25n68 across
hispaniola near 20n71w. The remainder of the atlc e of 35w is
dominated by a broad upper ridge anchored near 25n52w and strong
subsidence/dry stable air. A surface ridge dominates most of the
atlc n of 23n anchored by a 1025 mb high well n of the
discussion area. A second small upper ridge is anchored over
morocco extending an axis sw into the e tropical atlc to near
19n28w. Beneath is a surface trough that extends from 22n25w
through a 1010 mb low centered near 15n28w with scattered
moderate/isolated strong convection within 150 nm w of the
trough from 17n-20n and clusters of similar convection from
20n-23n between 20w and the surface trough.
For additional information please visit
http://www. Hurricanes. Gov/marine
$$
paw
000
acpn50 phfo 061148
twocp
Tropical weather outlook
nws central pacific hurricane center honolulu hi
200 am hst mon sep 6 2010
For the central north pacific. Between 140w and 180
1. Thunderstorms persist along a west-southwest to east-northeast
aligned surface trough about 875 miles southeast of hilo hawaii. The
trough is stationary. A couple of vortices or weak circulations
embedded within the trough currently show no sign of organization.
There is a low. 10 percent chance of a tropical cyclone forming in
this area during the next 48 hours.
Elsewhere. No tropical cyclones are expected through late Tuesday
night.
$$
000
abnt20 knhc 061148
twoat
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
800 am edt mon sep 6 2010
For the north atlantic. Caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico.
The national hurricane center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded tropical storm hermine. Located about 280 miles
south-southeast of brownsville texas.
Showers and thunderstorms have become less organized during the past
few hours in association with the remnant low of gaston. Located
about 400 miles east of the northern leeward islands. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development
over the next day or so as the system moves westward at about 15
mph. There is a high chance. 70 percent. Of this system becoming
a tropical cyclone again during the next 48 hours. Heavy rains and
gusty winds should begin to affect portions of the leeward islands
later today and tonight. And interests in those islands should
monitor the progress of this system.
Elsewhere. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.
Public advisories on hermine are issued under wmo header wtnt35 knhc
and under awips header miatcpat5. Forecast/advisories on hermine
are issued under wmo header wtnt25 knhc and under awips header
miatcmat5.
$$
forecaster cangialosi/pasch
000
abpz20 knhc 061141
twoep
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
500 am pdt mon sep 6 2010
For the eastern north pacific. East of 140 degrees west longitude.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
$$
forecaster cangialosi
000
wtnt35 knhc 061140
tcpat5
bulletin
tropical storm hermine intermediate advisory number 2a
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al102010
700 am cdt mon sep 06 2010
. Hermine a little stronger as it heads northward.
Summary of 700 am cdt. 1200 utc. Information
----------------------------------------------
location. 22. 4n 95. 3w
about 185 mi. 300 km ese of tampico mexico
about 280 mi. 450 km sse of brownsville texas
maximum sustained winds. 45 mph. 75 km/hr
present movement. N or 350 degrees at 10 mph. 17 km/hr
minimum central pressure. 999 mb. 29. 50 inches
Watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory.
None.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for.
* The coast of mexico from tampico to the mouth of the rio grande
* The coast of texas from the mouth of the rio grande to baffin bay
Additional watches or warnings could be required for portions of
southern texas later today.
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area. In this case within
about 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the united
states. Including possible inland watches and warnings. Please
monitor products issued by your local national weather service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the united states. Please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 700 am cdt. 1200 utc. The center of tropical storm hermine was
located near latitude 22. 4 north. Longitude 95. 3 west. Hermine is
moving toward the north near 10 mph. 17 km/hr. A turn toward the
northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected today. On
the forecast track. The center of hermine is expected to approach
the coast of northeastern mexico or extreme southern texas in the
warning area early Tuesday morning.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph. 75
km/hr. With higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
forecast prior to landfall.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles. 165 km
to the east of the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. 29. 50 inches.
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the warning
area tonight.
Storm surge. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to
2 feet above ground level along the immediate coast near and to the
north of where the center makes landfall.
Rainfall. Hermine is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over northeastern mexico and south texas with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible. These rainfall
amounts may cause life-threatening flash flood and mudslides.
Especially over the higher terrain of northeastern mexico.
Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory. 1000 am cdt.
$$
forecaster pasch/cangialosi
000
axpz20 knhc 061000
twdep
Tropical weather discussion
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
1005 utc mon sep 06 2010
Tropical weather discussion for the eastern pacific ocean from
the equator to 32n. East of 140w.
Based on 0600 utc surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 utc.
. Itcz.
Axis from 16n94w to 13n101w to 13n111w to 10n125w to 13n140w. No
significant convection.
. Discussion.
Aloft. A ridge extends west along 24n from the gulf of mexico
over tropical storm hermine. Across central mexico through an
anticyclone near 25n123w. To near 26n133w. A trough extends sw
from 41n136w through a low near 33n150w to near 14n151w. Strong
east winds are located south of the ridge from 12n to 19n between
98w and 125w. And s of 10n between 88w and 122w. The upper level
environment is high shear and not conducive to tropical cyclone
development. Strong south winds are found in nw portion of the
area between the ridge along 24n and the trough in the central
pacific. Water vapor imagery shows very dry mid-level air w of
northern baja california.
Surface.
High pres ridge extends se from 32n143w to near 22n127w. Pres
gradient between ridge and thermal trough over california is
producing fresh to strong n winds n of 27n between 120w and 132w.
Itcz remains well entrenched from 10n to 13n w of 100w but lacks
significant deep convection at this time. A 1011 mb low analyzed
near 12n144w has persistent convection but not much organization.
Gfs model has backed off moving this low across 140w into east
pacific basin. Expect feature to weaken into a low pres trough by
tonight. And remain a trough next 2-3 days. Winds diminish below
20 kt over the area except extreme north central part within the
next 12-24 hours.
Marine.
Swell generated by gales w of california will spread s of 30n
this morning to around 22n by tonight. Then gradually subside
and dissipate into a background residual seas component. Swell
will also subside from 10n to 15n e of 120w tonight as monsoon
flow weakens across the region. The next couple of days appear
rather benign. With nearly all of the area less than 20 kt and
seas less than 8 ft.
$$
mundell
000
wtca45 tjsj 060928
tcpsp5
Boletin
tormenta tropical hermine advertencia numero 2
nws tpc/centro nacional de huracanes miami fl al102010
400 am cdt lunes 6 de septiembre de 2010
. Depresion se convierte en la octava tormenta tropical de la
temporada de huracanes del atlantico del 2010. Aviso de tormenta
tropical emitido para el sur de texas.
Resumen de las 400 am cdt. 0900 utc. Informacion
----------------------------------------------
localizacion. 21. 6 norte 95. 0 oeste
cerca de 235 millas. 375 kilometros al sur este de la pesca mexico
cerca de 190 millas. 305 kilometros al este sureste de tampico
mexico
vientos maximos sostenidos. 40 mph. 65 kilometros por hora
movimiento actual. Norte o 360 grados a 8 mph. 13 kilometros por
hora
presion minima central. 1001 milibaras. 29. 56 pulgadas
Vigilancias y avisos
--------------------
cambios con esta advertencia.
Un aviso de tormenta tropical ha sido emitido para la costa sur de
texas desde la boca del rio grande hasta baffin bay.
Resumen de los avisos y vigilancias en efecto.
Un aviso de tormenta tropical esta en efecto para.
* La costa de mexico desde tampico a la boca del rio grande
* La costa sur de texas desde la boca del rio grande hasta baffin
bay.
Vigilancias o avisos adicionales podrian ser requeridas para
porciones del sur de texas mas tarde hoy.
Un aviso de tormenta tropical significa que las condiciones de
tormenta tropical son anticipadas en algun lugar dentro del
aviso. En este caso dentro de 24 horas.
Para informacion especifica para su area en los estados unidos.
Incluyendo vigilancias o avisos sobre tierra. Favor estar atentos a
los productos emitidos por su oficina local del servicio nacional de
meteorologia.
Discusion y perspectivas para las proximas 48 horas
------------------------------
a la 400 am cdt. 0900 utc. El centro de la tormenta tropical
hermine estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 21. 6 norte. Longitud
95. 0 oeste. Hermine esta moviendose hacia el norte a 8 millas por
hora. 13 kilometros por hora. Un giro al noroeste y un aumento en
la velocidad de traslacion son anticipados hoy. En la trayectoria
pronosticada. El centro de hermine estara cerca de la costa del
noreste de mexico o el extremo sur de texas en el area del aviso
temprano el martes en la manana.
Los vientos maximos sostenidos han aumentado a cerca de 40 mph. 65
kilometros por hora. Con rafagas mas fuertes. Alguna
intensificacion es anticipada antes de que afecte a tierra.
Los vientos de tormenta tropical se extienden hasta 105 millas. 165
kilometros al este del centro.
Estimados de la presion minima central es de 1001 milibaras. 29. 56
pulgadas.
Peligros afectando tierra
----------------------
viento. Condiciones de tormenta tropical son anticipadas para el
area avisada esta noche.
Lluvia. Se anticipan acumulaciones de lluvia de 4 a 8 pulgadas con
esta depresion sobre el noreste de mexico hasta el sur de texas con
maximos aislados de hasta 12 pulgadas. Estas cantidades de lluvia
pueden causar inundaciones repentias y deslizamientos de lodo que
amenazaran vida. Especialmente en el terreno mas alto del noreste
de mexico.
Proximas advertencias
-------------
proxima advertencia intermedia. 700 am cdt.
Proxima advertencia completa. 1000 am cdt.
$$
Pronosticadores brown/berg
Traduccion cortesia de la oficina del servicio nacional de
meteorologia en san juan puerto rico
000
wtnt35 knhc 060902
tcpat5
bulletin
tropical storm hermine advisory number 2. Corrected
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al102010
400 am cdt mon sep 06 2010
Corrected name of cyclone in rainfall section
. Depression becomes the eighth tropical storm of the 2010 atlantic
hurricane season. Tropical storm warning issued for south texas.
Summary of 400 am cdt. 0900 utc. Information
----------------------------------------------
location. 21. 6n 95. 0w
about 235 mi. 375 km se of la pesca mexico
about 190 mi. 305 km ese of tampico mexico
maximum sustained winds. 40 mph. 65 km/hr
present movement. N or 360 degrees at 8 mph. 13 km/hr
minimum central pressure. 1001 mb. 29. 56 inches
Watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory.
A tropical storm warning has been issued for the coast of south
texas from the mouth of the rio grande to baffin bay.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for.
* The coast of mexico from tampico to the mouth of the rio grande
* The coast of texas from the mouth of the rio grande to baffin bay
Additional watches or warnings could be required for portions of
southern texas later today.
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area. In this case within
about 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the united
states. Including possible inland watches and warnings. Please
monitor products issued by your local national weather service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the united states. Please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 400 am cdt. 0900 utc. The center of tropical storm hermine was
located near latitude 21. 6 north. Longitude 95. 0 west. Hermine is
moving toward the north near 8 mph. 13 km/hr. A turn toward the
northwest and an increase in forward speed are expected today. On
the forecast track. The center of hermine is expected to approach
the coast of northeastern mexico or extreme southern texas in the
warning area early Tuesday morning.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph. 65
km/hr. With higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
forecast prior to landfall.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles. 165 km
to the east of the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. 29. 56 inches.
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the warning
area tonight.
Storm surge. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to
2 feet above ground level along the immediate coast near and to the
north of where the center makes landfall.
Rainfall. Hermine is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over northeastern mexico into south texas with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible. These rainfall
amounts may cause life-threatening flash flood and mudslides.
Especially over the higher terrain of northeastern mexico.
Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory. 700 am cdt.
Next complete advisory. 1000 am cdt.
$$
forecaster brown/berg
000
wtnt35 knhc 060849
tcpat5
bulletin
tropical storm hermine advisory number 2
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al102010
400 am cdt mon sep 06 2010
. Depression becomes the eighth tropical storm of the 2010 atlantic
hurricane season. Tropical storm warning issued for south texas.
Summary of 400 am cdt. 0900 utc. Information
----------------------------------------------
location. 21. 6n 95. 0w
about 235 mi. 375 km se of la pesca mexico
about 190 mi. 305 km ese of tampico mexico
maximum sustained winds. 40 mph. 65 km/hr
present movement. N or 360 degrees at 8 mph. 13 km/hr
minimum central pressure. 1001 mb. 29. 56 inches
Watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory.
A tropical storm warning has been issued for the coast of south
texas from the mouth of the rio grande to baffin bay.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for.
* The coast of mexico from tampico to the mouth of the rio grande
* The coast of texas from the mouth of the rio grande to baffin bay
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area. In this case within
about 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the united
states. Including possible inland watches and warnings. Please
monitor products issued by your local national weather service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the united states. Please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 400 am cdt. 0900 utc. The center of tropical storm hermine was
located near latitude 21. 6 north. Longitude 95. 0 west. Hermine is
moving toward the north near 8 mph. 13 km/hr. A turn toward the
northwest and an increase in forward speed are expected today. On
the forecast track. The center of hermine is expected to approach
the coast of northeastern mexico or extreme southern texas in the
warning area early Tuesday morning.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph. 65
km/hr. With higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
forecast prior to landfall.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles. 165 km
to the east of the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. 29. 56 inches.
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the warning
area tonight.
Storm surge. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to
2 feet above ground level along the immediate coast near and to the
north of where the center makes landfall.
Rainfall. The depression is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over northeastern mexico into south
texas with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible. These
rainfall amounts may cause life-threatening flash flood and
mudslides. Especially over the higher terrain of northeastern
mexico.
Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory. 700 am cdt.
Next complete advisory. 1000 am cdt.
$$
forecaster brown/berg
000
wtnt25 knhc 060848
tcmat5
tropical storm hermine forecast/advisory number 2
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al102010
0900 utc mon sep 06 2010
Changes in watches and warnings with this advisory.
A tropical storm warning has been issued for the coast of south
texas from the mouth of the rio grande to baffin bay.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for.
* The coast of mexico from tampico to the mouth of the rio grande
* The coast of texas from the mouth of the rio grande to baffin bay
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area. In this case within
about 24 hours.
Tropical storm center located near 21. 6n 95. 0w at 06/0900z
position accurate within 30 nm
Present movement toward the north or 360 degrees at 7 kt
Estimated minimum central pressure 1001 mb
max sustained winds 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
34 kt. 90ne 60se 0sw 0nw.
12 ft seas. 60ne 30se 0sw 0nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat. Center located near 21. 6n 95. 0w at 06/0900z
at 06/0600z center was located near 21. 1n 94. 8w
Forecast valid 06/1800z 22. 9n 95. 8w
max wind 45 kt. Gusts 55 kt.
34 kt. 75ne 60se 0sw 0nw.
Forecast valid 07/0600z 24. 9n 97. 2w
max wind 50 kt. Gusts 60 kt.
50 kt. 25ne 20se 0sw 0nw.
34 kt. 75ne 60se 30sw 30nw.
Forecast valid 07/1800z 26. 8n 98. 4w. Inland
max wind 35 kt. Gusts 45 kt.
34 kt. 60ne 60se 0sw 0nw.
Forecast valid 08/0600z 28. 8n 99. 7w. Inland
max wind 25 kt. Gusts 35 kt.
Forecast valid 09/0600z 33. 2n 99. 6w. Post-trop/remnt low
max wind 20 kt. Gusts 25 kt.
Extended outlook. Note. Errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5. And for intensity near 20 kt each day
Outlook valid 10/0600z. Dissipated
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 21. 6n 95. 0w
Next advisory at 06/1500z
$$
forecaster brown
000
acca62 tjsj 060619
twospn
Perspectivas sobre las condiciones del tiempo en el tropico
nws tpc/centro nacional de huracanes miami fl
200 am ast lunes 6 de septiembre de 2010
Para el atlantico norte. El mar caribe y el golfo de mexico.
El centro nacional de huracanes ha emitido advertencias para la
depresion tropical numero diez. Localizada a 205 millas al este
sureste de tampico mexico.
El remanente de baja presion de gaston localizado como a 525 millas
al este de las islas de sotavento. Esta produciendo un area pequena
pero persistente de aguaceros y tronadas que estan un poco mas
concentrados cerca del centro de circulacion. Los vientos en los
niveles altos parecen ser favorables para algun desarrollo en el
proximo dia o dos. Y la humedad que rodea la baja presion debe
aumentar a medida que se mueve al oeste a 15 mph. Existe una
probabilidad alta. 70 por ciento. De que este sistema se convierta
en ciclon tropical nuevamente durante las proximas 48 horas.
Aguaceros fuertes y vientos en rafagas pueden comenzar a afectar
porciones de las islas de sotavento mas tarde hoy y esta noche. Y
los interesados en esas islas deben monitorear el progreso de este
sistema.
En el resto del area. No se espera formacion de ciclon tropical
durante las proximas 48 horas.
$$
Pronosticador berg
Traduccion cortesia de la oficina del servicio nacional de
meteorologia en san juan puerto rico
000
acpn50 phfo 060551
twocp
Tropical weather outlook
nws central pacific hurricane center honolulu hi
800 pm hst sun sep 5 2010
For the central north pacific. Between 140w and 180
1. Thunderstorm activity persists along a west-southwest to
east-northeast aligned surface trough about 875 miles southeast of
hilo hawaii. A couple of weak vortices or eddies embedded within the
trough currently show no signs of organnization. There is a low. 10
percent. Chance of a tropical cyclone forming in this area during
the next 48 hours.
Elsewhere. No tropical cyclones are expected through Tuesday
evening.
$$
000
axnt20 knhc 060551
twdat
Tropical weather discussion
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
205 am edt mon sep 06 2010
Tropical weather discussion for north america. Central
america. Gulf of mexico. Caribbean sea. Northern sections of
south america. And atlantic ocean to the african coast from the
equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery. Meteorological analysis. Weather observations. And
radar.
Based on 0000 utc surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0445 utc.
. Special features.
The surface low off veracruz mexico was upgraded to tropical
depression ten at 06/0300 utc. Tropical depression ten is
centered near 20. 9n 95. 0w at 06/0600 utc or about 235 nm se of
la pesca mexico and about 175 nm e-se of tampico mexico moving n
at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gust to 35 kt. Please see
latest nhc intermediate public advisory under awips/wmo headers
miatcpat5/wtnt35 knhc and the full forecast/advisory under
awips/wmo headers miatcmat5/wtnt25 knhc for more details.
Scattered/numerous strong convection is within 30/45 nm of line
from 23n95w to inland over s mexico near 18n93w with scattered
moderate/isolated strong convection covering the remainder of
the area s of 24n w of 93w to inland over mexico.
A 1009 mb low. Remnant of gaston. Is about 450 nm e of the
lesser antilles near 17n52w moving w near 10 kt. Satellite
imagery indicates a low level swirl with a band of scattered
moderate/isolated strong convection within 45/60 nm of line from
the low near 17n52w along 17n56w to 20n59w. Upper level winds
are expected to become more conducive for development over the
next day or so and the moisture surrounding the low should
gradually increase as it moves w at 10-15 kt. There is a high
chance of this system becoming a tropical cyclone again during
the next 48 hours. Heavy rains and gusty winds could begin to
affect portions of the leeward islands late today and tonight.
Interests in those islands should monitor the progress of this
system.
. Tropical waves.
Tropical wave remains inland over w africa along 12w moving w
near 10 kt. A weak 1012 mb low is along the wave axis near 10n.
. Itcz.
Itcz axis extends along 8n29w 7n34w 10n48w into the caribbean
over the windward islands 13n61w to across the n portion of
south america near 11n69w then across panama into the e pacific
region. Numerous strong convection is moving of w africa from
14n-19n to 20w. Clusters of scattered moderate are within 125 nm
of line from w africa near 11n15w to 4n35w and within 90 nm of
the itcz axis from 36w-42w.
. Discussion.
Gulf of mexico.
The primary concern tonight is the newly formed t. D. Ten in the
sw gulf. See special features above. An upper level trough
covers the e half of the u. S. And into the n gulf to 28n
supporting a weak. Meandering stationary front that extends
across s georgia into the gulf near panama city florida to
inland over louisiana and new orleans to near lake charles. An
upper ridge is anchored near t. D. Ten extending an axis e-ne
across the gulf waters and s florida to over the far w atlc
providing diffluence aloft to enhance scattered showers and
possible isolated thunderstorms within 120 nm of line from
24n94w to near 28n84w. Scattered showers/thunderstorms are
across the remainder of the s gulf s of 25n e of 91w through the
florida straits and over extreme s florida peninsula.
Caribbean sea.
The upper ridge over the gulf of mexico covers the nw caribbean
with e flow aloft mainly n of 17n w of 77w. An upper ridge
anchored in the central atlc covers the far e caribbean e of
66w. The remainder of the caribbean is dominated by an upper low
centered just n of the dominican republic near 21n70w. This
upper low is supporting a surface trough analyzed from 13n67w
through the mona passage into the w atlc. The upper low is
generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms n of a line
from 16n71w to just off the yucatan peninsula near 18n87w. The
itcz is generating isolated clusters of scattered showers/
isolated thunderstorms within 60 nm along the coast of colombia
and panama between 74w-80w. This scenario is leaving the
remainder of the caribbean tranquil tonight with the e caribbean
under remarkably clear skies.
Atlantic ocean.
The 1009 mb remnant low of gaston remains a concern as it moves
toward the leeward islands. See special features above. The
upper ridge that covers the gulf of mexico extends into the far
w atlc w of 77w. This upper ridge is providing diffluence aloft
to enhance scattered showers/thunderstorms n of 24n w of 78w to
the coast of the se u. S. And to over the far s florida
peninsula. The upper low over the central caribbean is centered
just n of the dominican republic near 21n70w and covers the
remainder of the w atlc s of 30n between 65w-77w supporting a
surface trough analyzed from 24n67w through the mona passage
into the caribbean. The remainder of the atlc e of 35w is
dominated by a broad upper ridge anchored near 25n51w and strong
subsidence/dry stable air. A surface ridge dominates most of the
atlc n of 23n anchored by a 1025 mb high well n of the
discussion area. A second small upper ridge is anchored over
morocco extending an axis sw into the e tropical atlc to near
17n30w. Beneath is a 1009 mb low centered n of the cape verde
islands near 20n23w with a surface trough extending across the
western most island to 12n28w. Clusters of scattered
moderate/isolated strong convection are within 75 nm of line
from 22n22w to 17n28w.
For additional information please visit
http://www. Hurricanes. Gov/marine
$$
paw
000
wtca45 tjsj 060548
tcpsp5
Boletin
depresion tropical diez advertencia intermedia numero 1a
nws tpc/centro nacional de huracanes miami fl al102010
100 am cdt 6 de septiembre de 2010
. Depresoin un poco mas fuerte.
Resumen de las 100 am cdt. 0600 utc. Informacion
----------------------------------------------
localizacion. 20. 9 norte 95. 0 oeste
cerca de 270 millas. 430 kilometros al sur este de la pesca mexico
cerca de 205 millas. 335 kilometros al este sureste de tampico
mexico
vientos maximos sostenidos. 35 mph. 55 kilometros por hora
movimiento actual. Norte o 10 grados a 7 mph. 11 kilometros por
hora
presion minima central. 1003 milibaras. 29. 62 pulgadas
Vigilancias y avisos
--------------------
cambios con esta advertencia.
Ninguno.
Resumen de los avisos y vigilancias en efecto.
Un aviso de tormenta tropical esta en efecto para.
* La costa de mexico desde tampico a la boca del rio grande
Un aviso de tormenta tropical significa que las condiciones de
tormenta tropical son anticipadas en algun lugar dentro del aviso
. En este caso dentro de 24 a 36 horas.
Para informacion especifica para su area en los estados unidos.
Incluyendo vigilancias o avisos sobre tierra. Favor estar atentos a
los productos emitidos por su oficina local del servicio nacional de
meteorologia.
Discusion y perspectivas para las proximas 48 horas
------------------------------
a la 100 am cdt. 0600 utc. El centro de la depresion tropical
diez estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 20. 9 norte. Logitud 95. 0
oeste. La depresion esta moviendose hacia el norte a 7 millas por
hora. 11 kilometros por hora. Un giro al noroeste y un aumento en
la velocidad de traslacion son anticipados mas tarde hoy. En la
trayectoria pronosticada. El centro de la depresion diez estara
cerca de la costa del noreste de mexico en el area del aviso
temprano el martes en la manana.
Data de la boya noaa en el suroeste del golfo de mexico indican que
los vientos maximos sostenidos han aumentado a cerca de 35 mph. 55
kilometros por hora. Con rafagas mas fuertes. Alguna
intensificacion es anticipada antes de que afecte a tierra. Y la
depresion podria ser una tormenta tropical mas tarde hoy.
Estimados de la presion minima central es de 1003 milibaras. 29. 62
pulgadas. Basado en reportes de la boya noaa 42055.
Peligros afectando tierra
----------------------
viento. Condiciones de tormenta tropical son anticipadas para el
area avisada el lunes en la noche.
Lluvia. Se anticipan acumulaciones de lluvia de 4 a 8 pulgadas con
esta depresion sobre el noreste de mexico hasta el sur de texas con
maximos aislados de hasta 12 pulgadas. Estas cantidades de lluvia
pueden causar inundaciones repentias y deslizamientos de lodo que
amenazaran vida. Especialmente en el terreno mas alto del noreste
de mexico.
Proximo boletin
-------------
proxima advertencia completa. 400 am cdt.
$$
Pronosticadores brown/berg
Traduccion cortesia de la oficina del servicio nacional de
meteorologia en san juan puerto rico
000
abnt20 knhc 060548
twoat
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
200 am edt mon sep 6 2010
For the north atlantic. Caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico.
The national hurricane center has initiated advisories on tropical
depression ten. Located about 205 miles east-southeast of tampico
mexico.
The remnant low of gaston. Located about 525 miles east of the
northern leeward islands. Is producing a small but persistent area
of showers and thunderstorms that has become a little more
concentrated near the center of circulation. Upper-level winds are
expected to become more conducive for development over the next day
or so. And moisture surrounding the low should gradually increase
as it moves westward at about 15 mph. There is a high chance. 70
percent. Of this system becoming a tropical cyclone again during
the next 48 hours. Heavy rains and gusty winds could begin to
affect portions of the leeward islands late today and tonight. And
interests in those islands should monitor the progress of this
system.
Elsewhere. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.
Public advisories on tropical depression ten are issued under wmo
header wtnt35 knhc and under awips header miatcpat5. Forecast/
advisories on tropical depression ten are issued under wmo header
wtnt25 knhc and under awips header miatcmat5.
$$
forecaster berg
000
wtnt35 knhc 060542
tcpat5
bulletin
tropical depression ten intermediate advisory number 1a
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al102010
100 am cdt mon sep 06 2010
. Depression a little stronger.
Summary of 100 am cdt. 0600 utc. Information
----------------------------------------------
location. 20. 9n 95. 0w
about 270 mi. 430 km se of la pesca mexico
about 205 mi. 335 km ese of tampico mexico
maximum sustained winds. 35 mph. 55 km/hr
present movement. N or 10 degrees at 7 mph. 11 km/hr
minimum central pressure. 1003 mb. 29. 62 inches
Watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory.
None.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for.
* The coast of mexico from tampico to the mouth of the rio grande
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area. In this case within
about 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the united
states. Including possible inland watches and warnings. Please
monitor products issued by your local national weather service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the united states. Please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 100 am cdt. 0600 utc. The center of tropical depression ten
was located near latitude 20. 9 north. Longitude 95. 0 west. The
depression is moving toward the north near 7 mph. 11 km/hr. A turn
toward the northwest and an increase in forward speed are expected
by late today. On the forecast track. The center of the depression
is expected to be near the coast of northeastern mexico in the
warning area early Tuesday morning.
Data from a noaa buoy in the southwestern gulf of mexico indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph.
55 km/hr. With higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
expected prior to landfall. And the depression is forecast to
become a tropical storm later today.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. 29. 62 inches.
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the warning
area Monday night.
Rainfall. The depression is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over northeastern mexico into south
texas with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible. These
rainfall amounts may cause life-threatening flash flood and
mudslides. Especially over the higher terrain of northeastern
mexico.
Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory. 400 am cdt.
$$
forecaster brown/berg
000
abpz20 knhc 060540
twoep
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
1100 pm pdt sun sep 5 2010
For the eastern north pacific. East of 140 degrees west longitude.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
$$
forecaster berg
000
wtca45 tjsj 060331
tcpsp5
Boletin
depresion tropical diez advertencia numero 1
nws tpc/centro nacional de huracanes miami fl al102010
1000 pm cdt domingo 5 de septiembre de 2010
. Nueva depresion tropical se desarrolla en el extremo suroeste del
golfo de mexico. Avisos de tormenta tropical emitidos para mexico.
Resumen de las 10:00 pm cdt. 0300 utc. Informacion
----------------------------------------------
localizacion. 20. 7 norte 95. 2 oeste
cerca de 270 millas. 435 kilometros al sur este de la pesca mexico
cerca de 200 millas. 325 kilometros al este sureste de tampico
mexico
vientos maximos sostenidos. 30 mph. 45 kilometros por hora
movimiento actual. Norte o 05 grados a 7 mph. 11 kilometros por
hora
presion minima central. 1003 milibaras. 29. 62 pulgadas
Vigilancias y avisos
--------------------
cambios con esta advertencia.
El gobierno de mexico ha emitido un aviso de tormenta tropical para
la costa de mexico desde tampico a la boca del rio grande.
Resumen de los avisos y vigilancias en efecto.
Un aviso de tormenta tropical esta en efecto para.
* La costa de mexico desde tampico a la boca del rio grande
Un aviso de tormenta tropical significa que las condiciones de
tormenta tropical son anticipadas en algun lugar dentro del aviso
. En este caso dentro de 24 a 36 horas.
Para informacion especifica para su area en los estados unidos.
Incluyendo vigilancias o avisos sobre tierra. Favor estar atentos a
los productos emitidos por su oficina local del servicio nacional de
meteorologia.
Discusion y perspectivas para las proximas 48 horas
------------------------------
a las 10:00 pm cdt. 0300 utc. El centro de la depresion tropical
diez estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 20. 7 norte. Logitud 95. 2
oeste. La depresion esta moviendose hacia el norte a 7 millas por
hora. 11 kilometros por hora. Un giro al noroeste y un aumento en
la velocidad de traslacion son anticipados para tarde el lunes. En
la trayectoria pronosticada. El centro de la depresion diez estara
cerca de la costa del noreste de mexico en el area del aviso
temprano el martes en la manana.
Los vientos maximos sostenidos estan cerca de 30 mph. 45 kilometros
por hora. Con rafagas mas fuertes. Alguna intensificacion es
anticipada antes de que afecte a tierra. Y la depresion podria ser
una tormenta tropical para el lunes.
Estimados de la presion minima central es de 1003 milibaras. 29. 62
pulgadas. Basado en reportes de la boya noaa 42055.
Peligros afectando tierra
----------------------
viento. Condiciones de tormenta tropical son anticipadas para el
area avisada el lunes en la noche.
Lluvia. Se anticipan acumulaciones de lluvia de 4 a 8 pulgadas con
esta depresion sobre el noreste de mexico hasta el sur de texas con
maximos aislados de hasta 12 pulgadas. Estas cantidades de lluvia
pueden causar inundaciones repentias y deslizamientos de lodo que
amenazaran vida. Especialmente en el terreno mas alto del noreste
de mexico.
Proximo boletin
-------------
proxima advertencia intermedia. 100 am cdt.
Proxima advertencia completa. 400 am cdt.
$$
Pronosticadores blake/brennan
Traduccion cortesia de la oficina del servicio nacional de
meteorologia en san juan puerto rico
000
axpz20 knhc 060315
twdep
Tropical weather discussion
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
0405 utc mon sep 06 2010
Tropical weather discussion for the eastern pacific ocean from
the equator to 32n. East of 140w.
Based on 0000 utc surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 utc.
. Itcz.
Axis along from 14n109w to 10n124w to 12n140w.
Isolated moderate within 30 nm of axis from 111w to 116w.
. Discussion.
Broad upper level anticyclone at 24n122w maintains dry stable
air mass over basin n of 15n w of 113w. Weak anticyclone over
gulf of mexico provides moist ne flow over region e of 113w and
provide good outflow to what now is tropical depression ten in
bay of campeche.
At the surface.
Very large and healthy high pres center well n of region forces
gale force winds against california coast and spills over
northern latitudes of basin and w of 120w with fresh breeze and
11 ft seas. On the opposite corner. Cross equatorial s swells
moving into se corner of basin but subside by end of forecast
period. Only lingering n swell up to 8 ft remain by tue.
Weak low pres w of 140w moves e of 140w within 24 hrs but
weakens by end of period. Is produce northerly swells which
forecast to move into northern portion of forecast area late sun
night. With seas expected to reach 11 ft by tue morning.
$$
wally barnes
000
wtnt35 knhc 060248
tcpat5
bulletin
tropical depression ten advisory number 1
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al102010
1000 pm cdt sun sep 05 2010
. New tropical depression forms in the extreme southwestern gulf of
mexico. Tropical storm warnings issued for portions of mexico.
Summary of 1000 pm cdt. 0300 utc. Information
-----------------------------------------------
location. 20. 7n 95. 2w
about 270 mi. 435 km se of la pesca mexico
about 200 mi. 325 km ese of tampico mexico
maximum sustained winds. 30 mph. 45 km/hr
present movement. N or 5 degrees at 7 mph. 11 km/hr
minimum central pressure. 1003 mb. 29. 62 inches
Watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory.
The government of mexico has issued a tropical storm warning for the
coast of mexico from tampico to the mouth of the rio grande.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for.
* The coast of mexico from tampico to the mouth of the rio grande
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area. In this case within 24
to 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the united
states. Including possible inland watches and warnings. Please
monitor products issued by your local national weather service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the united states. Please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 1000 pm cdt. 0300 utc. The center of tropical depression ten
was located near latitude 20. 7 north. Longitude 95. 2 west. The
depression is moving toward the north near 7 mph. 11 km/hr. A turn
toward the northwest and an increase in forward speed are expected
by late Monday. On the forecast track. The center of the
depression is expected to be near the coast of northeastern mexico
in the warning area early Tuesday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph. 45 km/hr. With higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected prior to landfall. And the
depression could become a tropical storm on Monday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. 29. 62 inches.
Based on reports from noaa buoy 42055.
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the warning
area Monday night.
Rainfall. The depression is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over northeastern mexico into south
texas with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible. These
rainfall amounts may cause life-threatening flash flood and
mudslides. Especially over the higher terrain of northeastern
mexico.
Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory. 100 am cdt.
Next complete advisory. 400 am cdt.
$$
forecaster blake/brennan
000
wtnt25 knhc 060243
tcmat5
tropical depression ten forecast/advisory number 1
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al102010
0300 utc mon sep 06 2010
Changes in watches and warnings with this advisory.
The government of mexico has issued a tropical storm warning for the
coast of mexico from tampico to the mouth of the rio grande.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for.
* The coast of mexico from tampico to the mouth of the rio grande
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area. In this case within 24
to 36 hours.
Tropical depression center located near 20. 7n 95. 2w at 06/0300z
position accurate within 30 nm
Present movement toward the north or 5 degrees at 6 kt
Estimated minimum central pressure 1003 mb
max sustained winds 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat. Center located near 20. 7n 95. 2w at 06/0300z
at 06/0000z center was located near 20. 4n 95. 1w
Forecast valid 06/1200z 21. 6n 95. 4w
max wind 35 kt. Gusts 45 kt.
34 kt. 45ne 45se 0sw 0nw.
Forecast valid 07/0000z 23. 3n 96. 9w
max wind 45 kt. Gusts 55 kt.
34 kt. 60ne 60se 30sw 30nw.
Forecast valid 07/1200z 24. 7n 98. 4w. Inland
max wind 30 kt. Gusts 40 kt.
Forecast valid 08/0000z 26. 4n 99. 9w. Post-trop/remnt low
max wind 25 kt. Gusts 35 kt.
Forecast valid 09/0000z 30. 0n 100. 5w. Post-trop/remnt low
max wind 20 kt. Gusts 25 kt.
Extended outlook. Note. Errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5. And for intensity near 20 kt each day
Outlook valid 10/0000z. Dissipated
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 20. 7n 95. 2w
Next advisory at 06/0900z
$$
forecaster blake/brennan
000
axnt20 knhc 060007
twdat
Tropical weather discussion
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
805 pm edt sun sep 05 2010
Tropical weather discussion for north america. Central
america. Gulf of mexico. Caribbean sea. Northern sections of
south america. And atlantic ocean to the african coast from the
equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery. Meteorological analysis. Weather observations. And
radar.
Based on 1800 utc surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 utc.
. Special features.
A 1009 mb low. Remnant of gaston. Is about 550 nm e of the
lesser antilles near 17n51w moving w near 10 kt. Satellite
imagery indicates a low level swirl with small clusters of
scattered moderate/isolated strong convection to the w from
16n-18n between 52w-54w. Although activity is currently
limited. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development of this system and a tropical depression could
re-form during the next day or two. There is a high chance of
this system becoming a tropical cyclone again during the next 48
hours.
A 1005 mb low off veracruz mexico is near 20n96w. A trough
extends n from the low to 26n95w. Clusters of scattered moderate
convection are from 19n-26n between 93w-99w. Short range
computer models suggest this system will continue to move nnw
over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for additional development and a tropical depression
could form during the next day or so before the system moves
inland. There is a high chance of this system becoming a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours
. Tropical waves.
Tropical wave remains inland over west africa along 11w moving w
near 10 kt. A 1009 mb low is along the wave axis near 9n11w.
This system is expected to enter the atlc over the next 24 hrs.
. Itcz.
A monsoon trough is s of 20n e of 30w to w africa. An itcz axis
continues westward from 8n30w to 8n40w 12n60w. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is from 9n-15n between 15w-19w.
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 6n-10n between
20w-26w. And from 3n-6n between 26w-32w. Scattered moderate
convection is from 6n-8n between 35w-40w.
. Discussion.
Gulf of mexico.
A 1005 mb low and surface trough is over the w caribbean
producing a good amount of convection. See the special features
section above. A stationary front is over the n gulf from the
florida panhandle to the coast of e texas along 30n84w 28n94w.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Elsewhere.
Scattered moderate convection is over central and south florida
from 25n-29n between 80w-82w. Similar convection is over the se
gulf from 22n-26n between 84w-88w. In the upper levels. An
upper level high is centered over the w gulf near 23n96w
enhancing convection. Considerable upper level moisture and high
clouds covers the gulf except along the coast of texas where
strong subsidence is noted. Expect. Little change over the next
24 hours.
Caribbean sea.
A rather lax surface pressure gradient is over the caribbean sea
thus tradewinds are mostly 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is over the n caribbean over hispaniola and cuba
between 70w-84w. Similar convection is over the sw caribbean and
central america from 7n-17n between 80w-92w. In the upper
levels. An upper level low is centered n of hispaniola near
22n68w moving w. Cyclonic flow is e of 80w. The remainder of the
caribbean has ne upper level flow with considerable upper level
moisture. Expect the remnants of gaston to reach the leeward
islands in 24 hours.
Atlantic ocean.
A 1024 mb high is centered over the central atlantic near
34n46w. A ridge axis extends se to the w atlantic near 28n75w.
Elsewhere. A 1008 mb low is n of the cape verde islands near
19n23w. Of note in the upper levels an upper level low is
centered n of hispaniola near 22n68w moving w. And an upper
level high is centered over the central atlantic near 24n41w
with strong subsidence.
For additional information please visit
http://www. Hurricanes. Gov/marine
$$
Formosa
000
acca62 tjsj 052350
twospn
Perspectivas sobre las condiciones del tiempo en el tropico
nws tpc/centro nacional de huracanes miami fl
800 pm ast domingo 5 de septiembre de 2010
Para el atlantico norte. El mar caribe y el golfo de mexico.
La actividad de aguaceros y tronadas asociada con el remanente de
baja presion de gaston localizado como a 600 millas al este de las
islas de sotavento ha cambiado poco en las pasadas horas. Data del
avion g-v de la fundacion nacional de ciencias indican que aire
bastante seco esta presente cerca del area de baja presion. El cual
puede estar evitando organizacion de este sistema. Sin embargo. Los
vientos en los niveles altos parecen ser favorables para algun
desarrollo. Y la baja presion debe de moverse a un area con valores
mas altos de humedad en un dia o dos. Existe una probabilidad
alta. 60 por ciento. De que este sistema se convierta en ciclon
tropical nuevamente durante las proximas 48 horas mientras se mueve
hacia el oeste a cerca de 15 mph. Intereses en las islas de
sotavento deben de monitorear el progreso de este sistema.
Tronadas han aumentado cerca de un area de baja presion localizada
sobre el extremo suroeste del golfo de mexico. Las condiciones
ambientales parecen ser favorables para una formacion de depresion
tropical antes de que se mueva sobre tierra en el proximo dia o dos.
Existe una probabilidad alta. 80 por ciento. De que este sistema
se convierta en un ciclon tropical durante las proximas 48 horas
mientras se mueve hacia el noroeste entre 5 a 10 mph. Sin importar
su desarrollo. Este sistema es capaz de producir lluvia fuerte
durante los proximos dias. Y intereses a lo largo de la costa oeste
del golfo de mexico deben de monitorear el progreso de esta baja
presion.
En el resto del area. No se espera formacion de ciclon tropical
durante las proximas 48 horas.
$$
Pronosticador blake
Traduccion cortesia de la oficina del servicio nacional de
meteorologia en san juan puerto rico
000
acpn50 phfo 052346
twocp
Tropical weather outlook
nws central pacific hurricane center honolulu hi
200 pm hst sun sep 5 2010
For the central north pacific. Between 140w and 180
1. Thunderstorm activity persists along a nearly east to west
oriented surface trough located about 1000 miles southeast of
hilo. Hawaii. A weak area of disturbed weather embedded within the
trough near 12n 143w has shown no signs of increased organization
over the past six hours. This system has a low chance. 10
percent. Of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48
hours.
Elsewhere. No tropical cyclones are expected through Tuesday
afternoon.
$$
Dwroe
000
abnt20 knhc 052333
twoat
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
800 pm edt sun sep 5 2010
For the north atlantic. Caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico.
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the remnant low of
gaston located about 600 miles east of the leeward islands has
changed little during the past few hours. Data from the national
science foundation g-v aircraft indicate that very dry air is
present near the low pressure area. Which may be inhibiting
further organization of this system. However. Upper-level winds
appear conducive for some development. And the low should be
moving into an area with higher moisture values in a day or so.
There is a high chance. 60 percent. Of this system becoming a
tropical cyclone again during the next 48 hours as it moves
westward at about 15 mph. Interests in the leeward islands should
monitor the progress of this system.
Thunderstorms have increased near an area of low pressure located
over the extreme southwestern gulf of mexico. Environmental
conditions appear favorable for tropical depression formation
before the system moves inland in a day or two. There is a high
chance. 80 percent. Of this system becoming a tropical cyclone
during the next 48 hours as it moves northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
Regardless of development. This system is capable of producing
heavy rainfall during the next couple of days. And interests along
the western gulf coast of mexico should monitor the progress of
this low.
Elsewhere. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.
$$
forecaster blake
000
abpz20 knhc 052332
twoep
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
500 pm pdt sun sep 5 2010
For the eastern north pacific. East of 140 degrees west longitude.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
$$
forecaster brennan
000
axpz20 knhc 052115
twdep
Tropical weather discussion
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
2200 utc sun sep 05 2010
Tropical weather discussion for the eastern pacific ocean from
the equator to 32n. East of 140w.
Based on 1800 utc surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 utc.
. Itcz.
Intertropical convergence zone axis from 08n78w to 11n90w then
resumes from 14n109w to 10n127w to 12n137w. Scattered moderate
isolated strong n of 04n e of 90w. Isolated moderate within 45
nm of axis from 113w to 122w.
. Discussion.
A large upper level anticyclone prevails over the northern part
of the forecast area. Northeasterly upper level flow prevails
over the deep tropics. This flow is advecting upper level
moisture from convection over central america and mexico
westward.
Surface ridging extends sse from a strong 1037 mb high nw of the
area from 42n147w to 25n126w. With a 1002 mb low pressure
centered over the far sw u. S. There is a tight pressure gradient
between these two features. This gradient is supporting
northerly gale force winds off the coast of california. This
will produce northerly swells which are forecast to move into
the northern portion of the forecast area late sun night. With
seas expected to reach 11 ft by tue morning.
$$
al
000
acca62 tjsj 051919 cca
twospn
Perspectivas sobre las condiciones del tiempo en el
tropico. Correcion
nws tpc/centro nacional de huracanes miami fl
200 pm ast domingo 5 de septiembre de 2010
Para el atlantico norte. El mar caribe y el golfo de mexico.
La actividad de aguaceros y tronadas ha mejorado en su organizacion
en asociacion con el remanente de baja presion de gaston localizado
como a 700 millas al este de las islas de sotavento. Las condiciones
ambientales parecen estar conducentes para formacion de un ciclon
tropical. Y este sistema y pudiera desarrollarse nuevamente en una
depresion tropical en cuaquier momento hoy o esta noche a medida que
se mueve hacia el oeste a cerca de 15 mph. Intereses en las islas
de sotavento deben monitorear el progreso de este sistema. Pudieran
requerirse avisos para algunas de estas islas si se reinician las
advertencias. Existe una probabilidad alta. 80 por ciento. De que
este sistema se convierta en ciclon tropical nuevamente durante las
proximas 48 horas.
Las imagenes del satelite y del radar en mexico indican que un area
amplia de baja presion localizada sobre el extremo suroeste del
golfo de mexico no ha mejorado en su organizacion durante las
pasadas horas. Las condiciones ambientales parecen ser favorables
para algun desarrollo adicional y pudiera desarrollarse una
depresion tropical en los proximos dias antes de que se mueva hacia
tierra. Existe una probabilidad alta. 60 por ciento. De que este
sistema se convierta en un ciclon tropical durante las proximas 48
horas mientras se mueve hacia el noroeste entre 5 a 10 mph.
En el resto del area. No se espera formacion de ciclon tropical
durante las proximas 48 horas.
$$
Pronosticadores cangialosi/pasch
Traduccion cortesia de la oficina del servicio nacional de
meteorologia en san juan puerto rico
000
acca62 tjsj 051919 ccb
twospn
Perspectivas sobre las condiciones del tiempo en el
tropico. Correcion
nws tpc/centro nacional de huracanes miami fl
200 pm ast domingo 5 de septiembre de 2010
Para el atlantico norte. El mar caribe y el golfo de mexico.
La actividad de aguaceros y tronadas ha mejorado en su organizacion
en asociacion con el remanente de baja presion de gaston localizado
como a 700 millas al este de las islas de sotavento. Las condiciones
ambientales parecen estar conducentes para formacion de un ciclon
tropical. Y este sistema pudiera desarrollarse nuevamente en una
depresion tropical en cuaquier momento hoy o esta noche a medida que
se mueve hacia el oeste a cerca de 15 mph. Intereses en las islas de
sotavento deben monitorear el progreso de este sistema. Pudieran
requerirse avisos para algunas de estas islas si se reinician las
advertencias. Existe una probabilidad alta. 80 por ciento. De que
este sistema se convierta en ciclon tropical nuevamente durante las
proximas 48 horas.
Las imagenes del satelite y del radar en mexico indican que un area
amplia de baja presion localizada sobre el extremo suroeste del
golfo de mexico no ha mejorado en su organizacion durante las
pasadas horas. Las condiciones ambientales parecen ser favorables
para algun desarrollo adicional y pudiera desarrollarse una
depresion tropical en los proximos dias antes de que se mueva hacia
tierra. Existe una probabilidad alta. 60 por ciento. De que este
sistema se convierta en un ciclon tropical durante las proximas 48
horas mientras se mueve hacia el noroeste entre 5 a 10 mph.
En el resto del area. No se espera formacion de ciclon tropical
durante las proximas 48 horas.
$$
Pronosticadores cangialosi/pasch
Traduccion cortesia de la oficina del servicio nacional de
meteorologia en san juan puerto rico
000
axnt20 knhc 051800
twdat
Tropical weather discussion
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
205 pm edt sun sep 05 2010
Tropical weather discussion for north america. Central
america. Gulf of mexico. Caribbean sea. Northern sections of
south america. And atlantic ocean to the african coast from the
equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery. Meteorological analysis. Weather observations. And
radar.
Based on 1200 utc surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 utc.
. Special features.
A 1009 mb low. Remnant of gaston. Is about 600 nm e of the
lesser antilles near 17n51w moving w near 10 kt. Satellite
imagery indicates a low level swirl with small clusters of
scattered moderate/isolated strong convection to the w from
15n-19n between 50w-54w. Although activity is currently
limited. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development of this system and a tropical depression could
re-form during the next day or two. There is a high chance of
this system becoming a tropical cyclone again during the next 48
hours.
A broad area of low pressure covers the sw gulf where a surface
trough is analyzed from a 1005 mb low 35 nm ne off the coast of
the city of veracruz near 19. 6n 95. 4w. The surface trough
extends nne along 23n95w to 26n93w. Scattered showers/isolated
thunderstorms cover the area s of 27n w of 91w to inland over
mexico. Official data from several weather stations in the
vicinity of the city of veracruz have registered between 1 and 2
inches of rain in the past 24 hrs. Short range computer models
suggest this system will continue to move nnw over the next
couple of days with scattered moderate to strong
convection. Beginning to affect the texas coast by Tuesday
morning. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
additional development and a tropical depression could form
during the next day or so before the system moves inland. There
is a high chance of this system becoming a tropical cyclone
during the next 48 hours
. Tropical waves.
Tropical wave remains inland over west africa along 10w moving w
near 10 kt. Satellite imagery indicates cyclonic flow near the
wave axis concentrated near a 1009 mb low along and the axis
near 9n. This system is expected to enter the atlc over the next
24 hrs.
. Itcz.
A monsoonal trough extends from the coastal waters of w africa
near 19n20w along 10n23w to 6n35w. Where the itcz axis begins
and continues westward along 10n45w to 12n60w. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is e of the trough from 6n to 14n
between the coast of west africa and 22w. Clusters of similar
convection are from 4n to 8n between 30w-43w.
. Discussion.
Gulf of mexico.
The primary focus this afternoon for the gulf of mexico is the
surface trough/low in the special features above. A longwave
upper level trough covering most of the s and se conus enters
the n gulf noted by strong subsidence on water vapor imagery.
This upper level feature supports a rather weak stationary front
that extends from the w atlc across the northern florida
peninsula into the ne gulf near 29n83w continuing westward to
29n92w. A surface trough is analyzed within 30 n mi s of the
stationary front between 83w and 91w. This scenario is enhancing
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection n of 26n e of
92w.
Caribbean sea.
Broad elongated upper level low centered n of puerto rico
supports a surface trough analyzed along 24n64w 20n65w 16n64w
enhancing scattered weak to moderate convection to the eastern
caribbean n of 12n e of 70w. A surface trough is to the sw of
the upper trough extending from northern colombia near 10n74w to
the n coast of nicaragua near 14n83w generating scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms within 100 n mi on either
side of the trough. Computer models suggest this area of
convection will linger in the sw caribbean over the next 24 hrs.
Relatively dry/stable conditions is noted elsewhere across the
caribbean this afternoon.
Atlantic ocean.
Broad elongated upper level low centered n of puerto rico near
20n66w supports a surface trough analyzed along 24n64w 20n65w
16n64w enhancing scattered weak to moderate convection s of 25n
between 64w and 72w. Upper level jet streak/trough moving ne off
the eastern seaboard is enhancing scattered moderate convection
n of 27n between 68w and 75w. Elsewhere across the across the
discussion area. Broad mid/upper level sub-tropical ridge
dominates the atlc and supports the surface 1024 mb high near
36n45w.
For additional information please visit
http://www. Hurricanes. Gov/marine
$$
Garcia
000
acpn50 phfo 051748
twocp
Tropical weather outlook
nws central pacific hurricane center honolulu hi
800 am hst sun sep 5 2010
For the central north pacific. Between 140w and 180
1. Thunderstorm activity persists along a nearly east to west
oriented surface trough located about 1000 miles southeast of
hilo. Hawaii. A weak disturbance embedded within the trough near
12n 143w has shown no signs of increased organization over the past
six hours. This system has a low chance. 10 percent. Of developing
into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.
Elsewhere. No tropical cyclones are expected through Tuesday
morning.
$$
Dwroe
000
acca62 tjsj 051741
twospn
Perspectivas sobre las condiciones del tiempo en el tropico
nws tpc/centro nacional de huracanes miami fl
200 pm ast domingo 5 de septiembre de 2010
Para el atlantico norte. El mar caribe y el golfo de mexico.
La actividad de aguaceros y tronadas permanece desorganizada en
asociacion con el remanente de baja presion de gaston localizado
como a 700 millas al este de las islas de sotavento. Las condiciones
ambientales parecen estar conducentes al desarrollo de este sistema
y pudiera desarrollarse nuevamente una depresion tropical en
cuaquier momento hoy o esta noche a medida que se mueve hacia el
oeste a cerca de 15 mph. Los intereses en las islas de sotavento
deben monitorear el progreso de este sistema. Pudieran requerirse
avisos para algunas de estas islas si se reinician. Existe una
probabilidad alta. 80 por ciento. De que este sistema se convierta
en ciclon tropical nuevamente durante las proximas 48 horas.
Las imagenes del satelite y del radar en mexico indican que un area
amplia de baja presion localizada sobre el extremo suroeste del
golfo de mexico ha cambiado un poco en organizacion durante las
pasadas horas. Las condiciones ambientales parecen ser favorables
para algun desarrollo adicional y pudiera desarrollarse una
depresion tropical en los proximos dias antes de que se mueva hacia
tierra. Existe una probabilidad alta. 60 por ciento. De que este
sistema se convierta en un ciclon tropical durante las proximas 48
horas mientras se mueve hacia el noroeste entre 5 a 10 mph.
En el resto del area. No se espera formacion de ciclon tropical
durante las proximas 48 horas.
$$
Pronosticadores cangialosi/pasch
Traduccion cortesia de la oficina del servicio nacional de
meteorologia en san juan puerto rico
000
abpz20 knhc 051736
twoep
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
1100 am pdt sun sep 5 2010
For the eastern north pacific. East of 140 degrees west longitude.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
$$
forecaster cangialosi
000
abnt20 knhc 051735
twoat
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
200 pm edt sun sep 5 2010
For the north atlantic. Caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico.
Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized in
association with the remnant low of gaston located about 700 miles
east of the leeward islands. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for tropical cyclone formation. And the low could
redevelop into a tropical depression at any time today or tonight
as it moves westward near 15 mph. Interests in the leeward islands
should monitor the progress of this system. Warnings will likely
be required for some of these islands if advisories are
re-initiated. There is a high chance. 80 percent. Of this
system becoming a tropical cyclone again during the next 48 hours.
Satellite images and radar imagery from mexico indicate that the
broad area of low pressure located over the extreme southwestern
gulf of mexico has not become better organized over the past few
hours. Environmental conditions appear favorable for development
and a tropical depression could form during the next day or so
before the system moves inland. There is a high chance. 60
percent. Of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours as it moves northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
Elsewhere. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.
$$
forecaster cangialosi/pasch
000
axpz20 knhc 051513
twdep
Tropical weather discussion
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
1600 utc sun sep 05 2010
Tropical weather discussion for the eastern pacific ocean from
the equator to 32n. East of 140w.
Based on 1200 utc surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 utc.
. Itcz.
Intertropical convergence zone axis from 07n78w to 10n88w then
resumes at 14n108w to 11n125w to 12n140w. Isolated moderate from
10n to 13n between 115w and 122w. Similar convection is from 08n
to 10n between 121w and 124w.
. Discussion.
A large upper level anticyclone prevails over the northern part
of the forecast area. Northeasterly upper level flow prevails
over the deep tropics. This flow is advecting upper level
moisture from convection over central america and mexico
westward.
Surface ridging extends sse from a 1036 mb high nw of the area
from 32n136w to 20n121w. With a 1002 mb low pressure centered
over the far sw u. S. There is a tight pressure gradient between
these two features. This gradient is supporting northerly gale
force winds off the coast of california. This will produce
northerly swells which are forecast to move into the northern
portion of the forecast area late sun night. With seas expected
to reach 11 ft by tue morning.
$$
al
000
axnt20 knhc 051203
twdat
Tropical weather discussion
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
805 am edt sun sep 05 2010
Tropical weather discussion for north america. Central
america. Gulf of mexico. Caribbean sea. Northern sections of
south america. And atlantic ocean to the african coast from the
equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery. Meteorological analysis. Weather observations. And
radar.
Based on 0600 utc surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 utc.
. Special features.
A 1009 mb low. Remnant of gaston. Is about 700 nm e of the
lesser antilles near 17n49w moving w near 10 kt. Satellite
imagery indicates a low level swirl with small clusters of
scattered moderate/isolated strong convection to the w from
15n-18n between 50w-54w. Although activity is currently
limited. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
re-development of this system and a tropical depression could
re-form in this area later today or Monday. There is a high
chance of this system becoming a tropical cyclone again during
the next 48 hours.
A broad area of low pressure covers the sw gulf where a surface
trough is analyzed from a 1007 mb low along the coast of s
mexico near veracruz n along 23n95w then nw to over s texas near
brownsville. Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms cover the
area s of 27n w of 89w to inland over mexico. Isolated showers
and possible isolated thunderstorms are n of 27n e of 89w.
Although activity is currently disorganized environmental
conditions appear favorable for additional development during
the next day or so. There is a medium chance of this system
becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves
nw at 5-10 kt.
. Tropical waves.
Tropical wave remains inland over africa along 9w moving w near
10 kt. The surface low is no longer discernible and the wave is
void of any convection.
. Itcz.
A monsoonal trough extends from w africa near 20n16w along
16n22w 10n26w to 6n35w where the itcz axis begins 6n39w along
11n55w to 10n62w. Scattered moderate/strong convection is within
a 60 nm radius of 19n22w. Clusters of similar convection are
from 6n-12n between 17w-21w and from 3n-8n between 30w-55w.
. Discussion.
Gulf of mexico.
The primary focus this morning for the gulf of mexico is the
surface trough/low in the special features above. A longwave
upper level trough covering most of the e conus dips s to the n
gulf coast supporting a stationary front that extends from the w
atlc across se georgia into the gulf over tallahassee florida to
the mississippi delta of louisiana. A weakening shortwave upper
level trough extends from off the florida coast near 29n86w to
near 25n87w. An upper level ridge is just to the se over the far
se gulf anchored over the florida straits near 23n82w providing
diffluence aloft to enhance scattered showers/thunderstorms over
the most of the e gulf s of the stationary boundary e of 91w
including the florida keys with the exception of the florida
peninsula which is remarkable clear this morning. A second
upper level ridge is anchored over the far sw gulf near 21n93w
covering the sw gulf.
Caribbean sea.
Broad upper low dominates most of the caribbean centered just s
of w puerto rico/mona passage near 18n67w covering the area e of
80w and into the central atlc. A surface trough is to the sw of
the upper trough extending from colombia near 10n75w to off the
coast of nicaragua near 12n82w generating scattered showers/
isolated thunderstorms within 150 nm either side of the trough.
The upper ridge anchored in the florida straits covers the w
caribbean giving the area ne flow aloft. This is providing
diffluence aloft enhancing isolated showers n of 15n between
puerto rico and the yucatan channel leaving the e caribbean
under mostly clear skies this morning.
Atlantic ocean.
An upper level ridge axis covers the w atlc anchored in the
florida straits extending an axis ne to beyond 32n72w. The
remainder of the w atlc is covered by the upper low centered s
of puerto rico/mona passage to 27n between 57w-76w. A broad
upper ridge covers the remainder of the atlc anchored near
24n43w with moderate/strong subsidence and dry stable air. A
surface ridge dominates the atlc waters n of 20n anchored by a
1021 mb high n of the discussion area near 34n43w.
For additional information please visit
http://www. Hurricanes. Gov/marine
$$
paw
000
acpn50 phfo 051156
twocp
Tropical weather outlook
nws central pacific hurricane center honolulu hi
200 am hst sun sep 5 2010
For the central north pacific. Between 140w and 180
1. Thunderstorm activity persists along a nearly east to west
oriented surface trough located about 1000 miles southeast of
hilo. Hawaii. There appear to be multiple rotation centers within
this trough. None of these centers has shown signs of increased
organization over the past six hours. The center of interest near
12n143w has a low chance. 10 percent. Of developing into a
tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.
Elsewhere. No tropical cyclones are expected through early Tuesday
morning.
$$
Powell
000
acca62 tjsj 051143
twospn
Perspectivas sobre las condiciones del tiempo en el tropico
nws tpc/centro nacional de huracanes miami fl
800 am ast domingo 5 de septiembre de 2010
Para el atlantico norte. El mar caribe y el golfo de mexico.
La actividad de aguaceros y tronadas permanece desorganizada en
asociacion con el remanente de baja presion de gaston localizado
como a 750 millas al este de las islas de sotavento. Sin
embargo. Las condiciones ambientales parecen estar conducentes al
desarrollo de este sistema y pudiera desarrollarse nuevamente una
depresion tropical en esta area durante los proximos dias. Existe
una probabilidad alta. 70 por ciento. De que este sistema se
convierta en ciclon tropical nuevamente durante las proximas 48
horas.
Las imagenes del radar en mexico indican que un area amplia de baja
presion localizada sobre el extremo suroeste del golfo de mexico ha
cambiado un poco en organizacion durante las proximas horas. Las
condiciones ambientales parecen ser favorables para algun desarrollo
adicional y pudiera desarrollarse una depresion tropical en los
proximos dias antes de que se mueva hacia tierra. Existe una
probabilidad alta. 60 por ciento. De que este sistema se convierta
en un ciclon tropical durante las proximas 48 horas mientras se
mueve hacia el noroeste entre 5 a 10 mph.
En el resto del area. No se espera formacion de ciclon tropical
durante las proximas 48 horas.
$$
Pronosticadores cangialosi/pasch
Traduccion cortesia de la oficina del servicio nacional de
meteorologia en san juan puerto rico
000
abnt20 knhc 051133
twoat
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
800 am edt sun sep 5 2010
For the north atlantic. Caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico.
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized in association
with the remnant low of gaston located about 750 miles east of the
leeward islands. However. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development of this system and a tropical depression
could re-form in this area during the next day or two. There is a
high chance. 70 percent. Of this system becoming a tropical
cyclone again during the next 48 hours.
Radar imagery from mexico indicates that a broad area of low
pressure located over the extreme southwestern gulf of mexico has
changed little in organization during the last several hours.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional
development and a tropical depression could form during the next
day or so before the system moves inland. There is a high
chance. 60 percent. Of this system becoming a tropical cyclone
during the next 48 hours as it moves northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
Elsewhere. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.
$$
forecaster cangialosi/pasch
000
abpz20 knhc 051132
twoep
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
500 am pdt sun sep 5 2010
For the eastern north pacific. East of 140 degrees west longitude.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
$$
forecaster cangialosi
000
axpz20 knhc 050951
twdep
Tropical weather discussion
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
1000 utc sun sep 05 2010
Tropical weather discussion for the eastern pacific ocean from
the equator to 32n. East of 140w.
Based on 0600 utc surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 utc.
. Itcz.
Intertropical convergence zone axis from 15n107w to 10n128w to
13n140w. Scattered moderate convection within 60 nm of axis
between 113w and 123w.
. Discussion.
A large upper level anticyclone is centered s of california near
31n119w with a ridge axis extending sw to near 19n133w. A tutt
cell nw of discussion area near 33n145w is embedded in a deep
trough that extends to 17n in the central pacific. Strong
easterly flow is evident s of 20n and east of 120w. Severely
limiting the potential for sustained deep convection due to
vertical shear. But anticyclonic flow aloft is enhancing deep
convection near a low centered 12n142w.
Surface ridging extends sse from a 1035 mb high nw of the area
from 32n136w to 17n130w. Scatterometer data shows moderately
strong convergence associated with the itcz west of 111w. A weak
low is starting to develop in a favorable area of high vorticity
near the surface and divergent flow at upper levels near 12n142w.
This low is forecast to drift ne across 140w over the next two
days with 20 kt winds and 8 ft seas. Gales from strong pressure
gradient associated with a thermal trough over california will
produce n swells which are expected to propagate into n central
part of the area in about 36 hours. And persist through Monday.
$$
mundell
national weather service
1325 east west highway
silver spring, md 20910
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